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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SteinarN » Tue 01 Dec 2015, 14:27:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'O')K, I've been browsing the EIA site for Brent Futures and cannot find a reference. All I've seen is the Brent SPOT price. So that means we'll need to guess the WTI SPOT price and not the FUTURES price for the best comparison. If anyone can find an EIA table of Brent FUTURES, please post the link.
Thanks!

I didn't quite understand where the futures comes into play?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ctually Brent is nearly as relevant to Americans as WTI since we still import a bunch... but not many were interested last time. I'd be happy to forward the Brent spreadsheet (with history and lots of weird spreadsheet gobbldygook) if anyone feels like working it. Or you could get POers and just down the brent info.

SteinarN: Would you like to volunteer to keep up with the Brent price?

I can send you (or anyone else) a copy of the spreadsheet. Just send me a PM with your email address please.


I am happy to keep track of the Brent price. I've sent you my e-mail adress.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 08:07:14

Update:

High 55
Low 37
Close 42
Average 46
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 11:34:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('obixman', 'O')K - the average will be 57.

There - I've said it, I've taken my stand, I've bet the family farm.... what's that - the only thing at stake is bragging rights?

Well - I'll say it anyway.


LOL! As pup55 mentioned in the original rules, side bets are encouraged! :-D

I've won a couple bottles maple syrup from Revi and vtsnowedin in previous challenges!

Spreadsheet updated...
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 11:40:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SteinarN', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'O')K, I've been browsing the EIA site for Brent Futures and cannot find a reference. All I've seen is the Brent SPOT price. So that means we'll need to guess the WTI SPOT price and not the FUTURES price for the best comparison. If anyone can find an EIA table of Brent FUTURES, please post the link.
Thanks!

I didn't quite understand where the futures comes into play?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ctually Brent is nearly as relevant to Americans as WTI since we still import a bunch... but not many were interested last time. I'd be happy to forward the Brent spreadsheet (with history and lots of weird spreadsheet gobbldygook) if anyone feels like working it. Or you could get POers and just down the brent info.

SteinarN: Would you like to volunteer to keep up with the Brent price?

I can send you (or anyone else) a copy of the spreadsheet. Just send me a PM with your email address please.


I am happy to keep track of the Brent price. I've sent you my e-mail adress.


Thanks! I've sent you the spreadsheet. You'll need to do some editing.

Regarding futures vs. spot prices, the EIA keeps track of both, and someone more knowledgable than I in the way oil is traded, can explain the differences between the two.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 12:01:39

Spot is the current price on the open market for a one-time purchase of the benchmark oil (a particular weight/grade/impurities/location/ect).

Not a lot of oil is sold at Spot, and less and less on WTI especially which makes Brent really the standard in most international deals for now.

It is a "benchmark" price used as the starting point to negotiate bigger, longer term contracts. You start there then adjust for whatever difference in weight/grade/impurities/location/ect.


Futures are just bets on what the price will be at various points in the future.

I don't think we've been using futures in the game.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 13:58:28

High: 86
Low: 40
Close: 76

Always interesting to watch.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 13:58:28

High: 86
Low: 40
Close: 76

Always interesting to watch.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 15:26:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') don't think we've been using futures in the game.


I've been using this reference for years now for the game:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm

which gives the WTI Futures prices.

It is the link at the top of every scorecard I've posted in the previous games. I updated the link to the spot prices website in this year's scorecard (as seen above). But since the scorecards are images made of the spreadsheet, it isn't actually a link. You must type the url into your browser.

Thanks for the explanation Pops. Care to guess an average WTI price for 2016?

GoghGoner: Please estimate an average price as well.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 16:12:05

Here are the updates to Rule #2:
"2. Each participant is to make three four guesses: The high, the low, and the closing, and the average price on December 31, [2016]

We will use the Cushing OK NYMEX Futures Contract #1 from the EIA table. Rule change: We will use the WTI Spot Price. See http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm Note that this only gives daily closing prices, not interday intraday prices, for those who wish to factor this into your calculations.

Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 31 price, which will be a few days into [2016]."

IMPORTANT: If no average price is given, then an average price will be calculated from the high, low, and closing price guesses.
Last edited by PeakOiler on Wed 02 Dec 2015, 16:21:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 16:20:06

Cool, you da man!
no biggie for our purposes really.

Just to clarify, the contract 1 futures price is a bet on the price for the next month, so the contract 1 price on 12/1 is the consensus bet on what the spot price will be in January or technically, on the 25th of december. Or even more technically:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or crude oil, each contract expires on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading ceases on the third business day prior to the business day preceding the 25th calendar day. After a contract expires, Contract 1 for the remainder of that calendar month is the second following month.

:?

The 12/1/15 futures price (the bet on what the spot price would be on 12/25/15 was $41.85
The price of oil that very day, on 12/1/15 — was $40.58
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 16:26:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'C')ool, you da man!
no biggie for our purposes really.

Just to clarify, the contract 1 futures price is a bet on the price for the next month, so the contract 1 price on 12/1 is the consensus bet on what the spot price will be in January or technically, on the 25th of december. Or even more technically:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or crude oil, each contract expires on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading ceases on the third business day prior to the business day preceding the 25th calendar day. After a contract expires, Contract 1 for the remainder of that calendar month is the second following month.

:?

The 12/1/15 futures price (the bet on what the spot price would be on 12/25/15 was $41.85
The price of oil that very day, on 12/1/15 — was $40.58


Yikes Pops! That's one helluva explanation in your quote!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 17:11:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'H')igh: 86
Low: 40
Close: 76

Always interesting to watch.


Average: 67
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Dec 2015, 17:18:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'Y')ikes Pops! That's one helluva explanation in your quote!

LOL, I know! that's EIA for ya, why I said
a bet on the price for the next month

I'm gonna wait until the OPEC meeting at the end of the week to guess the average - I may want to revise my whole guess!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 03 Dec 2015, 17:03:17

Correction to the post above (bold):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 30 price, which will be a few days into 2017.


December 31st is on a weekend.

I'll post an updated scorecard soon.

We need more players! Are you going to play this year, Tanada?
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby AutomaticEarth » Sun 06 Dec 2015, 18:37:06

My average is 54.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 07:34:57

The years I played I did poorly, so this time I will take a wild guess basing it on "Oil price to remain low in 2016, says Total boss" [http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35026287]

High: 50
Low: 30
Ending: 43
Avereage: 42
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 07:38:04

So are we trying to guess the WTI or the Brent price?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 10:55:33

High 111
Low 39
Close 93
Average 63
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 13:33:14

is this contest based upon Brent oil price or WTI price?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 14:40:15

Cog, I think we got rid of split price threads last year as the gap narrowed. We are talking WTI.
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