[radon1]

There is so much waste in the office work, in addition to the commuting time. Office politics and accompanying stress, dress codes, inability to relax properly, noise, slackers, idiotic "socialising" practices, "educational courses" and so on. Good if the productive time adds to the half of the total, and this is a good part of your life.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he hierarchy is intentional, layers of waste and dissembly so as to insulate the wealthy owners from labor, real production on the factory floor. Without intimidation and confusion the workers would rise up and take over the business.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'u')rbanization (as you dismissively refer to it) is the solution not the problem.

[SeaGypsy]

In Australia the tertiary education system is leading the way, with course content & teacher workloads shifting fast. This year I have been a 'full time' student, attending university one or two days a week.. My head lecturer runs two full time groups, working 2-4 days a week on campus with 1-2 ratio of homework she can do at any time or place suits her. The pay deal is based on class time hours only, with a very attractive hourly rate, but when online hours divide this rate by 3, I make similar amounts to her while driving a truck along the freeway, listening to the radio on cruise control- very easy job.
Next year the same course will only contain 14 days on campus, spread over the year, with a 1-5 ratio of classtime to home- teletime. Teachers will be paid a casual rate of close to $100 an hour, but will be assumed to be working online 4 hours to support this- so the bottom line is still about $20 an hour- less than truck driving. Of course if you are quick online, you can cut hours down very significantly. I am fully up to date & no assignments to redo & have had to spend a tiny amount of time in the online study portion, probably a tenth of what is assumed in the course design- primarily because I have years of experience in the sector & it is second nature.

[Pops]

Here is another article that ties together location independence with other trends...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he forces behind this sea-change are many: the rapid adoption of mobile technology, ubiquitous internet access, and a general sense of malaise powered by the vague yet nagging notion that we’re just not meant to work all day sitting in a cubicle. Add to that the waste of time, energy and brainpower that commuting engenders, and it becomes apparent that our definition of “workplace” will never be the same. It may seem like a tug of war between companies and workers, but in fact they share common goals: using technology and mobility to maximize productivity, innovation, and well-being.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')nnui, urbanization (as you dismissively refer to it) is the solution not the problem. The problem is we set up our cities to deteriorate specifically we chose a semi-rural parasitic lifestyle . . . called suburbia. Our cities used to be great. Try Paris. Or London. Or Moscow.

[ennui2]

I think you'll find adaptation occurs via the least disruptive pathways. Telecommuting is a negawatt style adaptation. All it requires is an attitude adjustment on the part of employers (prodded via where employees choose to work). This is part of the invisible hand of the market, if you will, that being labor arbitrage.

All of these new-urbanism projects require a degree of central planning that simply won't happen due to government dysfunction and lack of buy-in from the voting public.

There is an inverse relationship between peak energy and labor. If we really have so much surplus energy and surplus food, we really should be living in some sort of socialist utopia where nobody should have to flip burgers for minimum wage anymore. And there are lots of articles talking about how when robots take over, that it should go in that kind of direction rather than creating an increasing pool of darwinian "losers" who are unemployable by virtue of not being able to do any sort of tasks that can't be automated.

What would happen in a descent scenario is a reversal. Things that used to be Jetson push-button would need to be done by hand. Energy slaves would be replaced by people slaves. People who had very little value before, because they can do little more than use their hands or their brawn, will then be worth more, but JUST to be beasts of burden once more. So sure, they'd be in demand, but is that a good thing, really?

There are pros and cons to both worlds. In a world with a need for more manual labor, there will be more jobs, but will they be the sorts of jobs that provide any sort of meaning in the work, or will it just be a job for the sake of mere subsistence?

Meanwhile, a world of increasing automation shifts us towards Wall-E or idiocracy laziness and sloth.

No matter where this goes, human vice will manifest itself.

[Pops]

I think increased telecommuting will be part and parcel of part-timing and other strategies to lower labor cost to business.
Here is as pretty good article in Atlantic about increasing geographic income inequality resulting from the war against regulation and the resurgence of monopolies.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... picks=true

[ennui2]

But Pops, you are forgetting that we're living in an explosion of startup companies. It's true, 99% of them are in some way tech related, and are not boutique organic farmers, but if you put that aside, there are opportunities even for the unwashed masses to leverage technology. It's not simply a way for big companies like Microsoft to cut costs.

We're also living in an era of democratization of funding, via crowdfunding. If you have a good idea, get a few people together, and your pitch resonates, you'll get funded, regardless of what VC thinks about it.

I think it's really really important that people shake off the idea that in order for the American dream to exist that jobs need to trickle down from corporate america. If you have talent, then become an entrepreneur. Have it grow out of a hobby. Do it while you work a crappy dayjob. But break away from the employer/employee paradigm.

BTW, I started a company. I'm not going to go into detail on it because it's really not relevant for doom, other than to say that while I don't have full-time employees, I am paying remote contractors. I don't need an office and I don't need to limit myself to the local talent pool. These savings work equally well when you are cash-strapped as when you're a megacorp bean-counter. Geography doesn't play into it, mine or theirs.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think it's really really important that people shake off the idea that in order for the American dream to exist that jobs need to trickle down from corporate america.

[SeaGypsy]

Counting all the peeps sitting home on parenting payments, disability or living under a benevolent other, employment has been in the 40's % in most developed countries for years. That's why we only ever get told about the 'active' unemployed.

[KaiserJeep]

I commuted to work for 3/4th's of my career, first in suburban Chicago, then in suburban Washington DC, finally in Silicon Valley. 29 years as a commuter, mostly in smaller cars - MGs, Fiats, and an Alfa Romeo (hey, might as well enjoy driving when possible).

For 4 years I rode the train/light-rail/shuttle bus to work, with an employer-provided laptop and WiFi on the train, and worked during travel. For another 4 years I worked from home, with virtual meeting software. I managed some remote employees I had never met. This was possible because I was no longer an engineer designing new products, I was sustaining older products, and managing other sustaining engineers.

Telecommuting is probably both possible and desirable for about half the people in white collar jobs. But there are limitations, and these are the same whether the employee telecommutes or not, but some such work habits are not compatible with telecommuting.

The Work Ethic of a particular employee is key. If somebody is productive under the direct supervision of the boss, it does not mean that they are equally productive from home. Some people like me found relief from commuter stress, and became more productive.

Substance abusers are another issue - there are functioning alcoholics and stoners who simply cannot function with no restraints upon their substance consumption. As a telecommuter manager you soon note that there are those who schedule only morning meetings and are probably too wasted to work in the afternoon. Their telecommuter status makes it difficult to get them treatment or counseling as well.

Finally there are those jobs where flexible hours work better, and those such as customer service where shift work is the norm. I took advantage of flex hours myself for grocery shopping, personal appointments, and meal preparation - even if it meant a couple of hours of work at night.

Honesty compels me to admit, there is a local steelhead run on the San Lorenzo river above Santa Cruz, and during the November-February season, this county allowed fishing on weekends and Wednesday mornings before noon. I was obsessed with catching steelhead for two consecutive years, and Wednesday mornings often found me standing in waders in the cold river and rain, asking myself if I was crazy for doing so. Other employees played golf on one morning of each week. Indeed, flex hours are great as long as you can handle them.

The point is, there are both jobs and people where telecommuting is simply not possible.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')At the moment the owners are winning and the "boom" in "entrepreneurs" is the result of "increasing productivity" and downsizing resulting from offshoring and automation.

[Pops]

Yeah, who had the sig:
We've tried nothin and we're all out of ideas!
was it Barbara?

--
There is a level of inequality above which the owners always lose their heads. Can't remember it at the moment.

--
I see "location independence" as a big deal. It has really been a liberating lifestyle for me, not to mention lowering my overhead and likely my impact as well.

The thing I was saying about how it crosses with "unattached" workers, how it meshes with falling workforce participation and declining home ownership/ ownership in general makes it hard to get a handle. Then there is the whole financial deregulation/automation and outright monopoly power bit... not to mention huge debts.

Saw a story about Walmart's flat growth rates and their decision to increase wages – of course there is a correlation. Back when Henry Ford said every one of his workers should be able to afford what they build it was a good thing, nowadays when Walmart says every employee should be paid so little they can only shop at the cut rate store—with food stamps— not so much.

The condition and direction of the economy seems really hard for me to discern at the moment, if it ever was, LOL. One little stat, people are saving money on fuel at the moment, and yeah they are driving a little more but they are saving more of the "savings." Up 25^ from 4.5 to 5.5 percent since 2013.

I'm kinda rambling but a final thought, the post war average expansion is a tad over 5 years, we're going on 7. Hard to see the forest for the flames... I mean trees.

[Newfie]

Location independence, I like that!

[Pops]

As someone who has been telecommuting full time for over a dozen years (freelance graphics), here are some tips.

1) Connection
If your tool is the internet you must pay utmost attention to your connection! Most folks nowadays live in town and have access to DSL or cable. For me it is imperative to have a good connection PLUS a backup.
Living in the sticks is a lot harder but doable, I did it in the Ozarks in 2004 and have used just about every connection you can name. Nowadays it is easy, but don't take it for granted.

2) Space
My first home office was a small bedroom I outfitted just like an office, Mac work machine, MS Office machine, high end scanner, proofing printer, fax, files, phones, CD storage, printed work order board, blah, blah.

Now I'm very casual. I just have a small desk in the bedroom, laptop, digitizing tablet and big monitor. Everything is digital, no files, no faxes, no scanner and the printer is in a closet. I don't even backup to CDs or DVDs any more, just a couple little pocket drives and a cloud account. In fact I've purposely set myself up to be completely mobile.

3) Style
When I first set up at home fulltime I would get up in the morning and get ready just like I was heading into town, except I walked into the bedroom/office and closed the door. I did it that way consciously because I was afraid I would be distracted. When I was at work everyone pretended I was out of the house and I did too. In the early days I was making good - and needed all I could make.

Turns out that even I, possibly adult ADD, have little trouble getting my work done simply because I am on my own. I had the same 1960s outlook as most managers whose job it is to crack the whip and squeeze every little drop of labor possible from the serfs. Partly it is due to the fact that I'd been exempt for a long while, salaried then owner/partner. It really isn't such a big deal, I'm pretty sure if a person is not motivated enough to get the work done they probably know it and will cling to the cubical and the coattails of the producers with their final ounce of strength.

I also lowered my overhead, or as has been pontificated, I "crashed early to avoid the rush." But early on if my inbox was not packed I was worried and felt as if I should be keeping my seat warm even if I was not doing anything billable... old habits die hard. This time of year especially is always slow in my biz because retailers have everything set and are busy doing their thing and "institutions" are partying.

Over time I've become confident enough to simply walk away from the screen when my work is finished and go do something else. For a while I did some little farming and cattle, now I'm fixing up an old house.

By the same token I've become much less rigid about the door to my office; wife, kids, grandkids wander through, no biggie. Turns out one of the great benefits of working at home is working at home.

[ETA one more]
4) Turn It Off!
If you allow customers to contact you 24/7 they will. The only way to not become a drone is simply not respond outside whatever regular hours you set. Mine are M-Th, 9-3 & friday some. I can and do work late and weekends but I charge double. I respond tout de suite during my hours and can and will drop everything for an "emergency." But the thing to understand is your clients know immediately how much you value your time, if you act like it is worthless, they will too.

[Pops]

And one more tip, don't get involved in a message board.

[Newfie]

Pops said..
"I just can't see a way forward that doesn't entail the percentage of the population in the workforce continuing to fall and increasingly split between very high skill level and the very low. Which is OK. The ultimate efficiency improvement is simply less consumption and that is where we're headed. "

I agree with most of your thinking on this thread and the first half here. I think you are wrong on ultimate efficiency.

My observation is that humans have a strong desire to work, to contribute. When we can't do something useful we find something else to make ourselves think we are useful. This wasted work is expressed as consumerism and through it we create great gobs of pollution. Oh that we could just sit at home and read, paint or sing. Our drive to do useful work to do good, is killing us.

[Newfie]

Pops,

Reflecting on your comments about connectivity living in a major city deepen town you would think I'd have great connections. Not so. Fios is not available for us. We have DSL but the damn thing barely works, esprpecially when it rains. Our cell connection routinely provides a much better connection than our DSL.

Our marina has wireless and I have a high performance wireless router rig that gives me 5 bars in the saloon. But the connection to the real world is just terrible. Now that may be because half the town is on that connection, I have no way of knowing. It's not the wireless side that's slow, it's the wired side.

IIRC the USA has the poorest Internet infrastructure of all first world countries.