Peak oil is not just about, well, Peak Oil. It is a confluence of geopolitical, economic, environmental, cultural and supply/demand issues. One must avoid the trap of "not seeing the forest for the trees." Focusing on just Peak Oil is like staring at one dot in a pointiistic painting and not being able to appreciate the painting as a whole. There are a number of things coming together at this time that will exacerbate the production/demand problem that we as a world now face. Consider the following and this is not a comprehensive list:
1) Supply vs. demand and declining oil and gas fields worldwide. Most are past peak. Many countries now IMPORTING OIL, GAS AND GASOLINE.
2) The real estate bubble that will, like other past markets in the recent past, burst. (Ie.-gold and other precious minerals, Internet, stock market several times for various reasons etc.)
3) The USA's propensity to invade, either politically, economically or militarily other countries to secure our unquenchable thirst for fossile fuels.
4) An inevitable downturn in our economy and the worlds economy as a whole due to the price of rising energy costs. Ie.-Inflation and stagflation.
5) The absurd and dangerous level of debt carried by the US government, consumers and businesses (All of which is fiat currency not backed-up by any tangible commodity such as gold, oil, gas etc.)
6) The necessity of our US economy to grow at all costs ad infinitum (Loss of jobs, companies close, more bankruptcies, stock markets tumble, consumer confidence ((read this "materialistic consumerism") free-falls, political and social unrest etc.) ).
7)Interest rates must remain low to stimulate economic growth but that same economic growth causes a supply shortage in oil and specifically, its derivatives (ie.- diese, K2 etc.which we will see this winter (Current production worldwide is 84 million barrels. By the mid to late fall, we, as a world, will need an extra two to four million barrels per day. This is one of the primary factors that is driving the upward oil and gasoline increases-basic economics 101. On the other precarious hand, low interest rates stimulate growth thereby increasing our energy consumption due to increased use of fossile fuels. It is a catch 22 to the MAX!!! Pain now or far, far greater pain this winter and beyond.
The strength of the euro and its' inevitalbe replacement of the dollar as the premier reserve currency not to mention the accepted currency for trading in oil. (Iraq changed its petrodollars to euro dollars just before Gulf War II. Iran threatened as did South Korea, to do the same.)
9) The lack of sufficient refineries in the US and the world-especially to handle heavy, sour crude with its' attendant heavy metals.
10) Venezuela's socialist/Marxist government. They are increasingly hostile to the United States (Do a Google search) and are now choosing to use their oil, coal and natural gas to stimulate their economy and growth BEFORE considerations of exports to other countries. Also, their disdain for the US and its' "greedy, capitalistic, consumerism based culture" has driven their politicians to make energy export deals with China among others (Cuba etc.). Venezuela is a MAJOR exporter of oil and gas and gasoline to the United States.
11) The record trade deficit, primarily with China but also the rest of the world. Remember, any of you, when most products were made in the USA? Manufacturing, textiles and information technology jobs are moving overseas at an unprecented and destructive rate. Outsourcing is now the catch-word of business to the extreme detriment of US workers, national security, US mid-term prosperity and the overall lifestyle of we Americans as a wholel. "As goes the USA, so goes the world."
12) The US peak of natual gas. An Exxon Mobile executive acknowledged this very recently. Ie.- more imports from mostly Canada at a higher price. FYI-Natural gas is highly used in the West for heating, and electricity generation because, especially in California, with its' tough environmental laws, it is a far cleaner/less polluting source of fossil fuel. In addition, natural gas is used to a great extent in the generation of electricity in most power plants across our nation.
13) Natural disasters impacting the supply of oil and gas.
14) Wars and political unrest on the same.
15) Ahmadinahad, Irans new, hardline conservative leader says that he does NOT need the West (Iran is quite friendly, economically and politically, with the EU, China and of course, Russia.). Russia is currently building reactors and will suppy the fuel to power them for the regime in Iran. Six to ten more nuclear plants coming on line over the coming years. They will have little incentive to sell oil and gas to the United States, the "Great Satan" as they call us.
I could go on however I won't. The proverbial horse dung is going to hit the fan and I do not say this lightly. Analyze, assess, accept, conserve and prepare. It's the best that we can do. Live a life a voluntary simplicity and forsake the industrial, "keep of with the Jones" world.
Some college but mostly self-educated. I left the "rat race" several years back as I saw where it would inevetibly lead. Presently, I own two businesses of my own-both eco-friendly and sustainable after the crash. I live a life of voluntary simplicity(NO not deprivation, making due with my expenses on hand and NO credit. Others should try it as it isn't all that "bad" and they will be preparing for what is to come in the not so distant future.
Gary M. Powell
