[ennui2]

Just to make it clear what this chart actually says.

[ennui2]

More expert analysis.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'B')TW here is a chart that blows Hubbert's curve right out of the water. The PO argument was initially founded on the Hubbert curve, and how he accurately predicted US peak. Well, now we're into a new paradigm and people are cherry picking which charts they think validate their argument and which to ignore, like this one.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/US_Crude_Oil_Production_versus_Hubbert_Curve.png

Note that the falloff post Y2K corresponds with the "peak" of peak-oil concern of the mid 00s. Only the die-hards are still retconning their narratives to try to reconcile the fact that we're not just huddled behind our arrowslits plugging zombies by now.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'N')ote that the falloff post Y2K corresponds with the "peak" of peak-oil concern of the mid 00s.

[Cog]

I wonder if Rockman would care to chime in on a question I have about fracking and horizontal drilling. In the US, we have used those techniques to get a temporary reversal on decline. Is there any geologic reason that these same techniques can not be applied to other oil fields around the world such as SA, Iran, and Iraq?

[JV153]

Ennui2, that's a hilarious post... but so far we have two countries that have heavily increased
horizontal drilling (and sidetracking in Russia) for that last bit plus Canada for over 3 mb/d of very difficult to get to oil.. and 27% produced oil is now from offshore. The rest of the supposed trillions of barrels in this BP report must lie in offshore.. and according to the Oil and Gas journal such finds just haven't shown up. There are small finds reported here and there and a lot more reports of drilling turning up dry.

http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/offs ... -upgrades/

[onlooker]

again, isn't it the point that the low hanging fruit has already been exploited so that now what remains is the more difficult to access and more economically prohibitive oil and gas. This just makes sense on many levels not the least of which is the actual actions of the oil and gas companies resorting to deep off shore and fracking and shale.

[tita]

Ennui - Hubbert curve doesn't take the price of oil in account for his curve, neither the unconventional crude. The 79-86 and the 2010-today gain in production are related to more expensive oil. If shale or deepwater oil were at the same cost than conventional oil, the curve would have gone higher, with the same depletion after a peak happening later.

USA live in a post-peak of his conventional production since 1970, as the world does since 2005. Of course, there is plenty of oil around, maybe for decades before a global peak... But the amount depends of the price. There is a big question about the sustainability of growth in this dynamic where energy prices, energy production and economic health interact with each others.

[kanon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'a')gain, isn't it the point that the low hanging fruit has already been exploited so that now what remains is the more difficult to access and more economically prohibitive oil and gas. This just makes sense on many levels not the least of which is the actual actions of the oil and gas companies resorting to deep off shore and fracking and shale.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'E')nnui - Hubbert curve doesn't take the price of oil in account for his curve

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')t doesn't take a lot of things into account, which is why peak-oil analysis was woefully incomplete around 2007-2008 when this place had the most discussion going on.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o Pops, this places you firmly in ennui2's camp. You two want to argue that it is speculators who are tweaking the price of oil in order to rule the Financial World?

[onlooker]

If I may weigh in with the erudite members here, the key word Pops used is temporary. This means that the price is bound to go up as demand can only go down so much and production has stalled. Like any commodity the supply vs. demand equation reigns supreme.

[Pops]

no
2000-2014 price was rising and investment historically high
what is your point?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e can safely assume North Slope production must grind to a halt in a year or two as insufficient oil movement in the Trans Alaskan pipeline causes paraffin to settle out and clog the flow. Additional production (and flow) from the Chukchi Sea is doubtful for the next ten years. So when we loose 300,000 barrels per day, the world loses 300,000 barrels per say.

[onlooker]

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart
Posting this chart which gives price of crude since 1948 to the roughly the present.
Once notices that except for a brief period in the early 80's, the price has been at historically high levels since about the year 2000 onward.