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What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 28 Sep 2015, 18:50:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')enial never ends, just shifts over to scapegoating. Bear repeating: Denial never ends . . .


I remain curious to what lengths denial will remain intact when faced with extra human external feedbacks.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 28 Sep 2015, 19:00:12

I think I'm with pstarr on this.

My gut says there is no end to the dot us of denial. Not for all, some will get it, some do get it. But many will never ever get it.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 28 Sep 2015, 21:43:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')enial never ends, just shifts over to scapegoating. Bear repeating: Denial never ends . . .


Of course De Nile ends, right up there at Victoria Falls! :razz: :twisted:
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 28 Sep 2015, 22:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') think I'm with pstarr on this.

My gut says there is no end to the dot us of denial. Not for all, some will get it, some do get it. But many will never ever get it.


One way this might be the case is imagining in 50 years when some coastal cities are deep under water, those still in denial will simply have shifted the target from climate change to denying another consequence about to raise its ugly head. And so denial moves along, simply shifting the object of denial as we move along the archipelago of consequences.

You do have to take this to its logical conclusion to the last man standing somewhere way out there in the extremes of the denial archipelago..

Just like you can't believe in the one way linear exponential growth story its also hard to believe in the one way linear denial story. There is a pendulum here somewhere, and at some point it will swing back.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 00:39:10

I agree that at some point the pendulum will swing back. When humanity is fighting for survival, denial will be a luxury they cannot afford.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 05:09:21

More like it won't matter a gnat's fart. When denial ends is when consequences get in your face & force you to deal with them.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 07:52:58

Climate change doom will always be ten years away. Not next year, not next month, or even five minutes away, but ten years from now. This creates a comfort zone for those who make these horribly wrong predictions to hide from their previous statements.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 08:51:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'M')ore like it won't matter a gnat's fart. When denial ends is when consequences get in your face & force you to deal with them.


Hence no overcoming denial without consequences. The question though about exactly what happens then remains open. I was thinking more about this. We are at the tail end of denial being able to maintain a facade that we are being dignified humans. In other words, we are still playing the denial card that all is well with our environment and our treatment of fellow human beings. We are thus keeping our dignity and humanity intact. So climate change is false, terrorists are evil, Invading Iraq was for the Iraqi people, the disenfranchised are lazy and alcoholics, etc. etc. We the privileged have done nothing wrong.

So when denial is no longer possible when the consequences are up and in your face, how do we preserve the facade of dignity? This is strangely related to the other thread where we are discussing covert and overt actions. At the moment we are playing the denial rationalization game because enough of our environment and enough of human societies are still intact enough to squirm our way with denial that all is well. When this becomes undeniable then we will start with anger to play the In Group / Out Group tribal conflict. We will write off regions, peoples, nations as not worthy or evil. We will sacrifice polar bears and large chunks of ecosystems with the rationalization overtly that humans are more important than wildlife. We are doing this already but covertly in our collective unconscious. Once denial is not longer possible we wont need to be covert and rationalize it. WE will come right out and say it bluntly. These people are expendable. These ecosystems are expendable.

And thus we lose the facade of our humanity. That will be an interesting time. Once that goes overt and no longer denied then we have a polarization, a concrete ideology that will define night so to speak. And then we can see the possibility of the emergence of a counter point to this. To a movement that does define light. Now in the fog of denial there is a amoebic grey undefined moral ambiguity because we are still covert about our injustices and hubris. Still using denial as a shield. But consequences in our face will open this up. No doubt. Once this comes to the light of day and becomes overt and stated plainly then we have a foundation for a counter moral position.

Of course all of this is very cerebral and hypothetical when climate and political refugees will be hungry and displaced. And so long before this counter movement has a place to establish a new cultural orientation we will probably have to go into wars and chaos and quite a volatile time. In this chaos though the monster that we have created through our denial will only be further exposed.

This is not very promising for decades ahead.

Montequest often argued that overshoot in humans is the same as any other organism. Ultimately from a carrying capacity definition it is true. But the way we fall back within carrying capacity will be uniquely human. We will soon leave denial behind, the facade of our human dignity will drop and our selfish justifications will go overt as we marginalize and demonize our way to maintain privilege. This will get ugly. But at least it will be honest. And from that honesty a counterpoint can then make a stand. Unlike now in denial where all is amorphous grey confused, covert, a great big collective mind fuck we are deluding ourselves with.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby davep » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 09:26:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ontequest often argued that overshoot in humans is the same as any other organism. Ultimately from a carrying capacity definition it is true. But the way we fall back within carrying capacity will be uniquely human.


Quite. That was what I used to try to get across to Monte. We can alter the world's (non-phantom) carrying capacity by our own actions. Whether we actually will do so sufficiently before a die-off starts or not is a different question.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 11:33:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ontequest often argued that overshoot in humans is the same as any other organism. Ultimately from a carrying capacity definition it is true. But the way we fall back within carrying capacity will be uniquely human.


Quite. That was what I used to try to get across to Monte. We can alter the world's (non-phantom) carrying capacity by our own actions. Whether we actually will do so sufficiently before a die-off starts or not is a different question.


Indeed, in cold but well watered places we could build greenhouses with solar and geothermal heating to keep the masses fed, or we could even switch to processing things like Algae into digestible food if we wanted too. However switching over from a food surplus world like we have today to a self sufficient limited fossil fuel food supply is not an overnight magical cure, it will take years of hard effort.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 11:45:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')anada, I had no idea you were a denialist. Ya learn something every day lol


Only on days that start with T

:razz: :P :razz:
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/Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?when

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Sep 2015, 16:01:17

Ibon,

We will just redefine what it means to be human. Christians will be human, Islamist/Muslims not. Then it is OK to do hat ever we want to them, or they to us, because THEY are not really human.

Thus we retain the cloak of humanity and dignity.

Isn't that how it has always been done in the past. You know, like in WWII, when my Father was trying to rid the world of my Father-in-Law, and visa versq?
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Re: /Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?when

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 30 Sep 2015, 10:07:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')bon,

We will just redefine what it means to be human. Christians will be human, Islamist/Muslims not. Then it is OK to do hat ever we want to them, or they to us, because THEY are not really human.

Thus we retain the cloak of humanity and dignity.

Isn't that how it has always been done in the past. You know, like in WWII, when my Father was trying to rid the world of my Father-in-Law, and visa versq?


Yes, this will happen and we can speculate where and to what degree. And also question if there are forces that will act as a brake as well. It is not hard to see how the dehumanization can unfold along some religious divides, especially Islam with its regional instabilities which will keep elements of extremism resilient leading to continued justification for increased military presence, all of this sitting in the region with still the largest remaining oil reserves.

China is another wildcard, it all depends on how much the central government will be forced toward global imperialism in order to maintain domestic stability. A huge appetite of new consumers will not scale back willingly without fighting it would seem. Demonizing China would resonate with populations around the world who fear China's juggernaut. Russia as well due to the historical cold war legacy conflict but I am guessing with Russia's shrinking population they will also go more nativist and domestic and only extend their imperialism to a few of their immediate neighbors like they did with Ukraine.

The US is another wildcard. I actually see less appetite for global conflicts as time passes also with a growing strong nativist movement, more inward and protective. The remaining resource base will allow for this unlike China. The US has a volunteer army. On one hand high unemployment will provide a steady stream of volunteer soldiers but there is growing awareness after the fiasco in Iraq and Afghanistan of the futility of these endeavors. And then we have the issue of emerging generations being raised very soft and overly protected by helicopter parents. Society unwilling to send their 17 year olds into conflicts with ambiguous moral justifications.

Europe is old and does not have a big appetite for war. I would say the same for Japan. In both these cases I see also fences going up, hard lines taken toward immigration moving forward.

Latin America will remain a slow growth, but stable region trying to figure out how to manage and exploit the exploiters; China , Europe, Japan and the US with their huge appetites for the regions resources. The endemic corruption in Latin America will continue and this is what global powers will exploit.

I see the ME as center of resource wars and conflicts. I actually don't think we will see a global world war though.

The other side of this equation is the slow dawning of enlightenment that there can be no real winners in times of overshoot. During WWII the planet was still seen as massive, the whole mind set of the Japanese or Germans to expand and overtake territory was still a viable vision. That orientation is not any longer viable as a reason for war and the internet has created a global culture where it is harder to demonize and dehumanize your enemies.

Let's not forget how resource intense war is. You cant win resource wars when your greatest consumption of resources is the very war machine that has to fight this. That is also something that has to dawn on military planners and hawkish political elements. Every country will have to dedicate resources to maintain domestic stability. This creates contradictory forces toward resource wars, a push, pull so to speak.

We often mention that human overshoot has an element of check mate inherit in its solutions. Counter intuitively, overshoot itself helps mold culture toward sustainability against its will. We all have no choice but to tread more frugally on the planet since any resource intense military or BAU strategy is indeed checkmated.

That is where we will learn to lean into the very elements we are trying to solve.

It is a great exercise to see all of the problems as actually the solutions. Climate change for example is the solution to growth. Human eco systems being far more fragile than natural ecosystems to the impacts of climate change and the contraction of growth is what eventually reduces carbon emissions.

That is my one great prediction regarding the future. That the problems will turn out being the solutions. The kernel of this idea was born when I explored this in the Worshiping the Overshoot Predator thread.

The idea that humans through their ingenuity alone will tinker their way out of this mess is flawed. Ingenuity will play a role. Forced humility capitulating to external forces will play a greater role. Many of us were drawn to the concept of peak oil in the first place because we intuitively understood this.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 Sep 2015, 19:28:23

As always I just don't see the feedback mechanism making things work.

But I remain the eternal skeptic.

Nice post.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 30 Sep 2015, 22:18:37

My understanding is that most people don't want to suffer or die prematurely. Given that, growth is not so much a problem as what's needed to ensure this. Climate change is not so much a solution as one reason why there is none.

Also, one should note conflict during the last two decades coupled with increasing awareness of multiple feedback loops, a rise in oil production costs, and a global economic crash followed by years of non-recovery.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 20:15:25

I have to confess pessimism as regards this question. Ralfy posts seem so coldly logical and forthright. Having participated on the Environment forum for the time I have, the bleakness of conditions here on Earth seem undeniable. It is hard to fathom at this point , that any type of viable human community will make it thru this almost mass extinction that threatens the inhabitants of this planet. I understand that it is pointless to be here typing about total and absolute doom and some do not wish to hear this opinion. I always retain hope however, I am simply saying from reading up on the state of the ecosystems of the planet, the oceans, the forests, the soil, the water, the air it is frightening the level now of decline they are all in. So I am afraid to utter this but perhaps we waited too long in denial mode and failed to act. Now it may be too late. Not a conclusion I am eager to hold or communicate but that it my interpretation of the facts.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 21:39:23

Sucks don't it.
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Re: What exactly happens after Denial is Over?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 21:49:14

Having said that I need to relate that two nights ago we experienced one of the most beautiful evenings ever. The moon was full and reflecting on the waters surface, the water had ripples where the fish broached or simply nosed the air. Crickets, katydids, and frogs murmured from the shore. The air temperature was just perfect.

All was peaceful and right with the world.

At times such as those I find it impossible to contemplate the end of it all, the beauty and completeness of this little bit of the world overwhelmed me.

But then I went to sleep and had disturbing dreams about Earths future and what we are doing to it.

It is all surreal, we are at the limits of our ability to comprehend. The feelings, if you give into to them and let them wash over you, are too much, crushing, heart rendering. It's more than this mere mortal can contain.
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