by Ibon » Thu 24 Sep 2015, 14:56:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I think the Anger stage will burn hot but fast because staying angry does not last long for most people. In my experience Denial, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance are all much longer lasting than Anger. Anger can only be maintained with constant stimulation, like an actual war where danger is ever present and impossible to ignore.
Hvacman up thread points out how these stages differ for a civilization when compared to an individual and I tend to agree. My concern in this case is that anger can manifest
in an extended period of resource conflicts, this can seriously weaken globalization, result in economic contraction and a geopolitical scenario that is more conflict and less cooperation. More adversarial. But it might go the other way similar like nuclear detente. If it is understood that resource wars among global powers can't really be won.
Rockmann points out the early 70's and the anger over long gas lines. I was just turning 16 back then and learning to drive. Angry citizens in all consuming countries will be a huge management problem. Think of China and recent entries into the middle class and the loss of credibility the central government will suffer which today is only being held together by continued economic prosperity. Remove that prosperity and the Chinese will take to the streets and relieving this pressure may increase China's elite and government toward hawkish elements moving them toward more of a global imperialism. Not from imperial desires as much as maintaining domestic security.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')argaining IMO will quickly come to the foreground when Denial ends and people will look at and possibly implement all sorts of schemes. Could be coal to oil, massive increases in Ethanol production, a boom in Nuclear and Wind power construction or massive spending on Solar farms. The problem is none of those solutions can solve Peak Oil in the short term, which after some period of time leads to Depression. The hopelessness of Depression can cause all sorts of problems, if enough people stop caring the economy can fall apart especially if it is already severely strained by Peak Oil. By the time Acceptance takes hold it will all be over.
Bargaining when you are dealing with loss or death is short lived, but bargaining with a society's standard of living or consumption habits is something all together different. In bargaining we may truly move toward cultural adaptation that could last a long time. Since fossil fuels cannot be replaced at the scale that we currently use them whatever production we achieve with a combination of expensive fossil fuels, coal, nuclear and alternative energies will create a new base line. That base line means less airline travel, less personal transportation, etc. You bargain to travel less and spend more time locally. You bargain to own less luxuries but share more. You bargain to withhold that expensive medical procedure to leave your children more of your net worth.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omething else to keep in mind is the stages do not have a fixed length and you can backslide to any prior stage at any time. Depression can swap back to Denial, Anger can flash forward to Depression when Bargaining doesn't work instantly.