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Is Peak Oil a just one clue in a larger riddle?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Is Peak Oil a just one clue in a larger riddle?

Postby aldente » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 14:34:52

In Richard Duncins Olduvai Theory there is mentioning of Sir Fred Hoyle who in 1964 was stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the fossil fuels and "high-grade" metallic ores gone, no species will ever reach the same level of technology as we now enjoy.

Since we are about to experience this major changing point within this decade one wonders if such impeccable timing in witnessing this shift can be a conincidence . If you were born just 100 years earlier the picture would have been a very different one.

Is there something we should know that we don't know? Is Peak Oil a just one clue in a larger riddle that we have to solve?

jpg
Vermeers riddle
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Postby lateStarter » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 14:59:47

Yes, you are correct (at some level although I'm not sure what) - there is a larger riddle (maybe question or problem would be a better word), but we are not going to solve it. We only think we are clever...
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Postby aldente » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 15:22:05

I understand that the conventional solutions don't apply (the sudden appearance of a new, clean energy source wont happen). I prefer to look into the metaphysical direction. Altered consciousness for instance. The way our brains are wired. Conditioning and programming or the human biocomputer etc.

I need to add though that what is so stunning to me is the fact that our generation will experience Peak Oil and there will be only one Peak Oil in the history of this planet. It seems unreal that we coincidently live at this precise moment AND are aware what's going to happen.

Keep in mind, the majority of the population will be fed random explanations to by the ruling elites in regards to the unravelling events. They will never understand what happens to them.
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Postby Carrie » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 17:19:34

I've thought about this too. It would seem against all odds that not only would we be born a member of the most intelligent species on the planet, but also during an extremely important time in that species' history. I'm an agnostic, but the sheer mystery of existence has always baffled me.

Here's one possibility to wrap your brain around - we could be living in a virtual simulation, like the Matrix. It's an offshoot of the multiverse theory:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you've ever thought life was actually a dream, take comfort. Some pretty distinguished scientists may agree with you. Philosophers have long questioned whether there is in fact a real world out there, or whether "reality" is just a figment of our imagination.

Then along came the quantum physicists, who unveiled an Alice-in-Wonderland realm of atomic uncertainty, where particles can be waves and solid objects dissolve away into ghostly patterns of quantum energy.

Now cosmologists have got in on the act, suggesting that what we perceive as the universe might in fact be nothing more than a gigantic simulation.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/ ... click=true

It would explain a lot of things, wouldn't it? We could all be Sims. 8O
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Postby Cyrus » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 17:49:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t would explain a lot of things, wouldn't it? We could all be Sims.


It's high-time the player enters some cheat codes. :lol:
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Postby Kingcoal » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 17:56:43

Wow, I can almost hear the theme from 'Sightings' playing in the background. In the real world, it's all science, all the time. There is no magic at work. Previous civilizations experienced "Peak wood" and survived. The only crisis is one of intelligence.
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Postby RonMN » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 18:05:36

Every generation has had their "disasters" to deal with. If we had been born 100 years earlier we would have had to deal with WW1 WW2 the great depression, Korea, Vietnam...etc...etc...

The problem is that we were born in a time of relative peace & luxury & it made us lazy & our asses fat. Now that we're about to face a real problem, it looks so dire that we figure most of us will die (and maybe most of us will). Human life thrived before oil and it can after oil (ofcourse not for 6 billion...that number will have to be trimmed a bit). :roll:

Get ready to work your ass off...there ain't gonna be too many fat people around real soon!
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matrix type possibilities

Postby jockc » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 18:30:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve thought about this too. It would seem against all odds that not only would we be born a member of the most intelligent species on the planet, but also during an extremely important time in that species' history. I'm an agnostic, but the sheer mystery of existence has always baffled me.


We are actually in a 'resource depletion scenario' computer simulation being run by a graduate student 'out there' in the 'real world'. Of course that world would be as incomprehensible to us as ours would be to a sim in The Sims. It's probably 4 or 5 dimensions.

Depending on how the student views us (are we truly sentient, and does it matter if so), he might step in and save our world when he has collected the data he needed. (this is known as the 'technology will save us' argument to the extreme) Also, he might setup afterworld scenarios for us to occupy after our deaths.

--

or perhaps humanity destroyed the earth long ago, then set out inside giant hollowed out spinning asteroids looking for new worlds to live on. Because the inside of an asteroid is dull, most of our time is spent in virtual worlds that look like the old earth. Perhaps resource depletion is a common theme in these virtual worlds to help remind us the importance of conservation, once we leave the virtual world(s) and return to our mundane jobs in the asteroid.

--

or what if, a future society has overcome all problems (energy, death, etc) and becomes bored, so sets up virtual simulations where the immortals can experience these things again, but safely. Or perhaps they just want us for our art and literature.

hey anything's possible.
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Postby aldente » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 18:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carrie', ' ')It would seem against all odds that not only would we be born a member of the most intelligent species on the planet, but also during an extremely important time in that species' history.


So it's about time and our perception therof. Merleau-Ponty said:
"Time is the one single movement appropriate to itself in all its parts". Here we see the fullness of alienation in the separated world of capital. Time is thought of by us before its parts; it thus reveals the totality. The crisis of time is the crisis of the whole.

In the same context:
Turning to what is commonly called psychology, we again come upon one of the most fundamental questions: Is there really a phenomenon of time that exists apart from any individual, or does it reside only in one's perceptions of it? We know that experiences, like events of every other kind, are neither past, present nor future in themselves.
time

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jockc', '
')We are actually in a 'resource depletion scenario' computer simulation being run by a graduate student 'out there' in the 'real world'. Of course that world would be as incomprehensible to us as ours would be to a sim in The Sims. It's probably 4 or 5 dimensions.

You're on the wrong track there, I fear. The reality of resource depletion including it's implications most notably Peak Oil are not being questioned here, nor are they "outsourced" to a cosmic graduate student. The excercise is to manipulate the angle with which you as the observer percieve what is commonly defined as reality. Or are you a one-dimensional thinker?
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Postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 18:47:45

.

Carrie said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve thought about this too. It would seem against all odds that not only would we be born a member of the most intelligent species on the planet, but also during an extremely important time in that species' history. I'm an agnostic, but the sheer mystery of existence has always baffled me.


Where did you get the idea that we are the most intelligent species on the planet? A mind that works like some virus based chain letter which was developed to help an early Pleistocene hunting ape increase the number of baboon heads that it could bash in during any period of time, is hardly sufficient to be considered intelligent! Since the average duration of any species is somewhere like 3.5 million years before extinction, and Homo sapiens have about 3.4 million years to go on that number, we should come slightly under the Dodo bird on the intelligence chart.


.
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Postby aldente » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 19:00:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')
Where did you get the idea that we are the most intelligent species on the planet?

You're right on that - the proof is the upcomming mess that is being discussed on this forum. True intelligence would comprehend resource depletion and work with the equilibrium instead of throwing it off ( I refer to a biosphere that is in "equilibrium").
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Postby Carrie » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 19:03:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')

Carrie said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve thought about this too. It would seem against all odds that not only would we be born a member of the most intelligent species on the planet, but also during an extremely important time in that species' history. I'm an agnostic, but the sheer mystery of existence has always baffled me.


Where did you get the idea that we are the most intelligent species on the planet? A mind that works like some virus based chain letter which was developed to help an early Pleistocene hunting ape increase the number of baboon heads that it could bash in during any period of time, is hardly sufficient to be considered intelligent! Since the average duration of any species is somewhere like 3.5 million years before extinction, and Homo sapiens have about 3.4 million years to go on that number, we should come slightly under the Dodo bird on the intelligence chart.


Maybe "intelligent" is the wrong word to use - how about we're the ones with the most technological skill, and the most knowledge of our surroundings. The dolphins may be more intelligent than us and have a rich non-technological culture, but they can't build a hydrogen bomb or go to the moon. Intelligence doesn't necessarily = wisdom. I was trying to emphasize our "weirdness", how no other animal is like us - we're an anomaly.

I doubt we'll be around for 3.4 million years - we're too unstable. The more complex something is, the more likely it is to break down.
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Postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 19:35:29

Carrie said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') doubt we'll be around for 3.4 million years - we're too unstable. The more complex something is, the more likely it is to break down.

“ Could it be that our representation of the world, the cognitive process that we use to describe that world, is itself susceptable to error? Our ability to “think” developed in the long forgotten past. It developed to help us survive in a harsh and competitive world. A world dominated primarily by predator and prey. But is our atavisticly developed mind, a mind that we developed in the long forgotten past, adequate in our present world. A world that we ourselves have changed? A world that we have changed so dramatically that we ourselves have become the principal and primary candidates for predator and prey. Our persistent failure to construct a world that does not contain a large amount of pain, suffering and destruction implemented by our own hand, would suggest that it is not. If our own mind contains deeps that we can not see and if the world for which our mind was originally developed has been changed, then how do we find a solution to alleviate our historic and persistent predicament? “

.
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Postby jaseywasey » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 20:17:02

ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION?


BY NICK BOSTROM

Department of Philosophy, Oxford University


This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.


http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

I actually thought there was some value in this theory, until I found out about Peak Oil.

The basic premise is that, in the future, humans (or posthumans as the author calls them) will have such powerful computers, they will be able to run historical simulations. Since these simulations will be so useful, the chances are that lots of them will be run and therefore the chances of you-or-I living in the real world, become smaller and smaller.

Of course we all know these computers will never exist.
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Postby katkinkate » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 21:59:56

What's all this metaphysical mumbo jumbo? You are you. You are here (wherever your here is). And the future is coming whether you want it or not. How you live in the future depends, at least partially, on what decisions and what you do in the everlasting now. The matrix is a fictional story (a very entertaining and well done story, but just as story nontheless). And a very, very highly improbable one based on someone's imagination, of which too many of we humans have been blessed/cursed.

Its OK to enjoy the entertainment of the alternative realities and possible futures that are developed through science fiction stories, but it is a very bad idea to start thinking they might be true. That way lies self-delusion and psychosis.

You might as well become a fundamentalist christian. :lol:
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Postby aldente » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 23:12:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'Y')ou might as well become a fundamentalist christian.

I see where you're comming from and yes, if one leaves solid ground and goes into metaphysical mumbo jumbo organized religion acts as a primary filter to catch you , or shall we say they at least claim to have the key to that door.

Reality is that you don't need to subscibe to any belief system if you decide to depart and go into unchartered waters - as if religion would have all "property rights" in a unexplored metaphysical world.

Organized religious groups (Christians, Moslems, Hindus...) are criminal institutions that deprive human beings from access to knowledge that is common good. Their organisations are based on free market principles just like any other business and they are accordingly as reckless in their practices when it comes to aquire and hold their customer base.
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Postby MicroHydro » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 23:17:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'W')hat's all this metaphysical mumbo jumbo?


Indeed. There is a basic fallacy. Any species will pass through crises. Any sentients alive during a time of crisis will ask, "Why me? Why now?"

There is no why.
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Postby Carrie » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 23:35:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'W')hat's all this metaphysical mumbo jumbo? You are you. You are here (wherever your here is). And the future is coming whether you want it or not. How you live in the future depends, at least partially, on what decisions and what you do in the everlasting now. The matrix is a fictional story (a very entertaining and well done story, but just as story nontheless). And a very, very highly improbable one based on someone's imagination, of which too many of we humans have been blessed/cursed.

Its OK to enjoy the entertainment of the alternative realities and possible futures that are developed through science fiction stories, but it is a very bad idea to start thinking they might be true. That way lies self-delusion and psychosis.

You might as well become a fundamentalist christian. :lol:


Fundamentalist Christian - been there, done that. My Mom was one, that's why I'm an agnostic now. :wink:

I don't know if this is some sort of simulation we're in. Truth is, I don't have a friggin' clue what the nature of reality is. And I think that's the wisest path - to admit you don't know. But that doesn't mean you have to be content with existentialism.

To ponder the nature of existence has been with us since we became sentient. It doesn't matter what culture or what time period, or what hardship people had to go through. To ask "why?" is human nature. And I'd bet it's the same thing for any other sentient creature in this universe. For me, there are just too many unanswered questions.
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Postby BabyPeanut » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 12:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'I') need to add though that what is so stunning to me is the fact that our generation will experience Peak Oil and there will be only one Peak Oil in the history of this planet. It seems unreal that we coincidently live at this precise moment AND are aware what's going to happen.

The civilazation that we have built by our reckless over-use of energy has enabled us to see what is coming. I would be more confounded to find we lacked the awareness by the time the crisis was close.
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Postby jimmydean » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 12:26:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', '
')It's high-time the player enters some cheat codes. :lol:


ROFLMAO ~IDDQD :-)

On the religious front I've read a few books on Buddhism and in my humble opinion that seems the most plausible and give the realities of post-PO not such a bad religion for the world.

After seeing a documentary by Robert Thurman I recently picked up one of his books : The Jewel Tree of Tibet, The Englightenment Engine of Tibetan Buddhism. Excellent read btw.
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