[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'O')n the one hand I am tired of waiting but don't know how much longer we will have to wait. It seems like from the last few years of production records effectively 90 percent of gains came from the USA 'Fracking Miracle' and those days are rapidly winding down by about half.

[ennui2]

Here is an oldie but goodie.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')p until a week ago I was mainly concerned about peak oil. Now it looks as if peak natural gas is imminent as well (according to the latest data posted at The Oil Drum)

We're so screwed

[Pops]

The biggest mistake in the predictions was that price would go to $500 or $1,000 per barrel in some short time because new additions would simply stop on a dime and cease replacing "natural" decline of 2-3-5-8 whoknoshowmany percent. IF that had happened there would have indeed have been overnight armageddon or some reasonable facsimile.


The first mistake was that all new production would simply stop because there is no place left to drill. Yes, there is a limited amount of new projects that will be started at various price levels. But what about at the next price level? For one thing we thought the next price level was $1,000/bbl. But it wasn't and here we are, price increased the limit — say $100 right now, and we got more than we can use for the moment. Again, Peakers—including me— assumed there would just be no more wells drilled (or tar mined, etc) no matter the price. That was a pretty far fetched idea but peakers backed it 100% as I remember.

The second mistake follows from the first: oil prices would go to $1000 overnight and stay there.
All it takes is one look at my checkbook to know that I would not be buying the same amount of gasoline if the price were, say, $40/gallon as I do at $4 or did at $1.5. I'll venture a guess that not many other folks would either. And, if demand falls, price falls, simple as that. Big shortage would equal big hardship but gas wouldn't go to $40/gallon and stay there. I really think that was the big fallacy promoted by Simmons and others once they started getting a little buzz. Which of course doesn't excuse any of us because no one questioned it without getting shouted down.

So instead of there physically being no more oil to get at any price, which was the prediction of all the Authorities I read; turns out (and I might add, exactly like all the neo economists predicted) money made energy. For the moment anyway.

What happens now? LoL we make more predictions of course!

I saw a quote recently:
40 years ago we had 30 years worth of oil... at $10/bbl
Now we have 30 years worth... at $100/bbl
After that we'll have 30 years worth @ $1,000/bbl

unfortunately I don't have an attribution for that, and I have no idea if those numbers make sense or not, they're round tho...

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')The world was handling $100ish oil just fine overall, given the general economic growth trend from 2011 through 2014 (round figures) as high oil prices didn't even come close to the "crushing" economic effects the doomers predicted.

[Tikib]

Ideally I'd like to see the price of oil go above $100 a barrel right now and then stay below $300 for the next 5 years. As I think those sorts of prices would force take up of alternative energy and efficiency measures without resulting in us eating each other.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat a surprise! Another anti-doomer screed.

[Tikib]

I think people on this website have a tendency to underestimate renewables. When I first became interested in energy technology 15 years ago they were pathetic. But today in a lot of areas they are competitive with grid prices. And I think wind has the capacity to go down in price another 25% in the next 10 years and I think solar prices will halve. Its difficult to imagine them not being competitive in most places at those prices.

[ralfy]

In terms of per capita production, peak oil has been around for almost four decades. But the effects of that were not readily felt probably because the global middle class had remained small. Unfortunately, it has to keep growing in order to sustain the capitalist global economy.

Meanwhile, most people earn less than $10 a day, which means high oil prices affect them readily. Increased credit levels have to take place to allow most to buy more expensive oil, but that also leads to financial crisis.

There are other sources of energy to consider, but they have low returns or quantity. The same global economy needs the opposite.

Finally, oil production costs have been going up, which means prices have to keep rising to maintain production.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tikib', 'I')deally I'd like to see the price of oil go above $100 a barrel right now and then stay below $300 for the next 5 years. As I think those sorts of prices would force take up of alternative energy and efficiency measures without resulting in us eating each other.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'O')n the one hand I am tired of waiting but don't know how much longer we will have to wait. It seems like from the last few years of production records effectively 90 percent of gains came from the USA 'Fracking Miracle' and those days are rapidly winding down by about half.

[ennui2]

EIA may be inaccurate, but it doesn't change the fact that we're not facing empty store shelves and zombie hordes the way the old posts in this thread predicted.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')IA may be inaccurate, but it doesn't change the fact that we're not facing empty store shelves and zombie hordes the way the old posts in this thread predicted.

[Tikib]

I think theres two issues invovled in peak oil.

Peak transportation and peak energy.

Having looked at the alternatives I am convinced theres energy out there if we make use of it. The transportation issue is a bigger one as we havn't worked out how to make cheap alternative fuels yet.

But heres the thing, in the west we could probably make a 10th of the journeys that we make without the economy crashing. If more people work from home, more people share journeys, more people walk or use bicyles the list is endless. And capitalism is going to force those solutions to the problem over the next 5 years until cheaper enough alternatives come along.

[Pops]

Yeah, I try to be moderate, try to let alternate evidence and logic seep in, try to not be pessimistic. In fact, currently I'm as unconvinced of doom as I've been in a while—except Tuesday evenings and sometimes Sunday mornings. LoL


Here is a picture from Matt @ crude oil peak



ALL the increase is from N America. All of it is from unconventional means. Good for us but not good.

Now look at the top number. Kind of hard to believe that in the time this site has been active we've burned 300 billion barrels. What is that, a quarter of all that has ever been burned to this point? 99% of that is "conventional oil."

That's the thing, we can wax eloquent and cite optimistic unconventional oil and green energy articles all day long, but meanwhile, the easy fossils the whole shebang depends on are constantly depleting.

And for all the RE fluffin PR that gets posted here, RE is still a miniscule amount.

Yeah, RE has made great strides in affordability and is now in reach for doomers to disconnect and still have some bucks left for OP seeds. But for everyone else, trillions are invested in FFs themselves and tens and hundreds of trillions in the "Fossil Way Of Life" if you include all the built environment that is profitable only with cheap energy. The only way to de-fossilize is to divert bucks from the consumption economy to the "renewable" economy, and that obviously is not happy-making.


The other thing about price we should have learned by now is due to the way the market for oil works, there will be wide and wild swings in price. The regs that keep the dice rolling for the gamblers are worth billions themselves and they are entrenched in the system like ticks, really more like a virus. Simply because a price of $150-200-250 cannot be sustained, doesn't mean we should not expect it. Here's my take on that:




Overall, my "beliefs" are less dogmatic and "directional" than a dozen years ago. At that point I kind of expected a gradual grind with the typical inflections. I've realized (and find more each day) how little I know about all the moving parts and realize its pretty well impossible to predict the future. My underlying knee-jerk is still the same as it ever was; things are great, they could easily be worse.

[Tikib]

To just elucidate what I mean the renewable energy market in the past 10 years of renewable energy has essentially been a research phase. Governments subsidising deployment in order to force efficiency gains. Once energy prices go up again significantly we will move into the deployment phase, where renewables become competitive without subsidy in large parts of the world.

There is going to be an energy crisis but it will be resolved in about 10 years when enough alternative energy comes online.

[Pops]

I heard that in 1972, LoL

[Tikib]

Yea but alternative energy was much less efficient back then. And like I said there will be a huge energy crisis which will result in peoples incomes falling dramtically.

But it will eventually be resolved by alternative energy.

As you have probably realised by now I think its impossible to replace our entire energy infrastructure with renewable energy.