[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')The message is clear, and Bin Laden and everybody else with a grudge knows it: the way to defeat America is to cut off the oil.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is the sour note. The private automobile is the very root of the problem. The main reason we "need" oil is to fuel cars, and we don't actually need cars. Thus the need for oil isn't a real need, just a pseudo-need.

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
So what is this magical root cause... this shadowy "first mover"?

What could possibly be responsible for such a pervasive effect?

What could it be?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
So what is this magical root cause... this shadowy "first mover"?

What could possibly be responsible for such a pervasive effect?

What could it be?

[retiredguy]

Great posts.

I think JD is on to something. To wage a conventional war, the US would need huge amounts of oil. That wasn't a problem during WWII since the US supplied most of the Allied oil and since our oil fields were secure.

This is not the case today in Iraq. I would guess that most of the oil the military is using in that country is coming from Saudi, not Iraq. Can anyone confirm that?

If most of the oil used by the US in the ME is coming from that region, and if, as it seems, the US is planning to use the ME as its new base of military operations (for obvious reasons), then it would be extremely risky for the the US to attempt a conventional war from that base of operations. It would be too easy to disrupt the oil supply at the source.

The US military successes since Viet Nam have all been of short-duration. And, in the case of both Gulf Wars, the supply was secure.

Having said all of this, I do believe the US could become so desperate as to play the military card as a last resort. If one looks at the current energy bill, it simply attempts to preserve the status quo. Noone is going to propose a Plan B while there is oil yet to be pumped because Plan B means a total economic and cultural shift.

When I used to play Risk in college, when one of us realized we were in a hopeless situation, the hopeless one would oftimes mass his armies in one country and "make a run to Irkutsk." The move made no sense other than to give the doomed player a chance to fatally weaken one of more of the players in his path.

Will the US "make a run for Irkutsk?" I think it is a real possibility.

[oiless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')I think it's only a matter of time until the appropriate military people realize that suburbia and the private auto are a grave threat to national security. This may result in real changes, because they will be coming from the top down this time. The "love affair" of the consumer will not be taken into consideration when national security is at stake

[retiredguy]

I recall seeing an interview with John Kenneth Galbraith who was involved with managing government-imposed rationing during WWII. He said that Americans, with one exception, were compliant. That exception was gasoline. He said "the citizens would use any kind of chicanery to get more gas."

My own grandfather squirreled away a hundred gallons of black market gas in his garage. People did the same thing during the 70s.

The last thing an American will give up is his vehicle. Yes, even more important than guns. A helluva lot more Americans own cars than guns.

[holmes]

This has been what has been enraging me for some time. still talking about peak this peak that. back and forth. mundane topics. rehashed over and over. Its done. the facts are blatant. colapse is imminent. Peers in Colarado that are in the energy sector who are not doomers at all. they are changing fast tho, say as soon as the price of gasoline hits 5-6 bucks a gallon, US economy done. so Im looking at 2008 now when the excelleration downward increases. So folks better start talking about reality. ASAP. FAST. It reminds me of millions of whiny brats that need good spankings. .

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', '
')still talking about peak this peak that. back and forth. mundane topics. rehashed over and over. Its done. the facts are blatant.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', '
')still talking about peak this peak that. back and forth. mundane topics. rehashed over and over. Its done. the facts are blatant.

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', ' ')So folks better start talking about reality. ASAP. FAST. It reminds me of millions of whiny brats that need good spankings. .

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', ' ')So folks better start talking about reality. ASAP. FAST. It reminds me of millions of whiny brats that need good spankings. .

[Pops]

From the "Please Read" announcement originally posted June 16, 2004 in the Planning forum:

“If you have made it past the discovery, research and discussion phase and are looking for ways to cope with Peak Oil on a personal as well as global basis, hopefully this forum will help.”

[retiredguy]

I've spent alot of time considering what I might do to plan for PO. Other than being debt-free and living a simpler life, I can't see that there is a whole lot more an individual can do.

Seems to me that the biggest problem we will face PO is interaction with the 99% who don't buy into the PO theory and want business to continue as usual. People in desperate straits are dangerous and I am in an area where the population density is pretty high.

I suppose one could form a group of like-minded folks and head for a remote area (like Surinam) to build an Amish-like community. But, as I approach geezerhood, that isn't very appealing.

My feeble hope is that as we continue to spread the word about PO, that a critical mass will form and a viable, palatable Plan B will be developed. Individual action and even small group action I see as not much better than not preparing.

Holmes, Pops I know a bit about your plans from your posts. But I am interested in how you are planning to survive being overrun by your fellow human beings.

[NEOPO]

Great post's one and all.

I had irkutsk in with my trade-in for 40 new armies - came back to control all 7 points of russia, then penetrated the unimpenetrable australian annex which led to a troop build up and an easy time with afro-euro and then the whole board!!!

Could this be what the U.S or China or even Russia is thinking?
Are we hoping for a last second "turn-in"?
or
Collecting cards while we still can?

Ok enough of the risk analogies

Lastly and most importantly I wish to now proclaim myself as the king of PO.
What took some great minds weeks/months/years/never to deal with I had dealt with in 4 days.
Thats correct my loyal subjects, 4 hard days and I had came to the same conclusions and began to plan for "our" survival before hitting the ground.
Now bow before me!!!!

I must acknowledge all the support from people like the moderators here, matt simmons, matt savinar, colin cambell, rep bartlett et all for bringing their bit of credibility to the scene.

I would like to thank Tim leary for the acid, Dennis leary for the laughs and Charles manson for the avatar

I would like to thank god for not existing and the academy for not insisting that I wear clothes to this ceremony...........

"wake up neo"
"The matrix has you"

[jeffvail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')espite the potential to establish independence through alternative economic and cultural structures, we can only achieve true independence in a society that conquers the problem of physical power. A group free from economic or cultural control by an outside agent can still suffer control through force.[13] Remnant hunter-gatherer tribes in the Amazon illustrate the limitations of self-sufficiency. They do not exhibit dependency on the outside world for anything, yet logging companies and ranchers with access to greater physical force (in the form of the State) have repeatedly forced them off their land.

[jimmydean]

After all my reading and following of the forums here for the past couple of months I find myself slightly more optimistic than most of the posters here.

I do believe in peak oil however it is still too early to try and predict it's time or the size of it's impact. It could happen in 20 or 30 or 50 years or in 2 to 5 years if we continue at our current increasing rates of consumption. Where my optimism lies is in individual conservation of energy coupled with improved efficiencies of technology that uses oil.

Short term higher oil prices are a good thing as it increases awareness of the issue which should spur more conservation as well as the development of other energy producing technologies.

Unless something catastrophic happens to disrupt supply I think as we approach peak oil it's impact may be more like a long drawn out recession economically rather than economic disaster and nuclear war

[Pops]

Retiredguy, there are numerous threads regarding city vs country and surviving the ‘masses’ on the planning forum, forgive me if I don’t look ‘em up. The gist of my view on MZBs is this:

1. The “starving hordes” probably can’t make it this far
2. If they do, they have lots of fairly “independent” people to go through first
3. If they make it past those folks they will likely be hungry so we can trade or fight.
4. I don’t survive and they then have my place - but of course they will starve in the end since they have no idea what to do after the eating is done – they then are the winners.

I can deal with second place in that circumstance as I will have done what I could do. My only option would have been to become one of the starving horde and that seems like poor odds.

But having said all that, firefights with starving hordes of blistered footed suburbanites is really pretty far down on my to-do list. Actually the whole scenario is, IMHO, another example of “there is noting anyone can do so lets do nothing” or worse “I don’t want anything to change so lets fantasize about Mad Max and futility”.

No offense intended.

[oowolf]

So it's Tainter's Runaway Train--only the train is a mag-lev supertrain crossing a house-of-cards economic trestle spanning the Olduvai Gorge. Soon the trestle will vaporize.

[retiredguy]

Hi Pops,

Thanks for the reply. No offense was taken. The people to whom I'm closest don't share my interest in moving to a rural area, so I'm going to ride it where I'm at. I live in town and am a short walk from the RR. My hope is that this town will become a distribution center when vehicle transport is crippled by high gas prices.

Plus, given my age, I may be dead or at least old enough not to care about living anymore before things get really bad.

If I were young, I believe I would try to assemble a group of people who had a diverse set of skills, pool resources and head for some Third World country that had few resources the modern world cares about. Maybe a place like Surinam.