by Aaron » Thu 30 Jun 2005, 17:52:38
As if we had planned it this way, I responded to an interview request today with this email: (Nice post BTW Monte)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ohn,
You are quite welcome.
I too hope we can share some thoughts & ideas with the public, and help people understand what peak oil is all about.
The problem with hydrocarbon depletion issues like peak oil, is that the sound byte describing it is more than 15 seconds long. And as unsettleing as it is, this "seconds long" barrier to understanding prevents many from "getting it". It is, as you are aware, perhaps the most important issue on our radar save none. If the thoughts and predictions of some very well informed, serious scientists are correct... we have a problem which overshadows almost everything else.
Much has been written about peak oil to date, and I hesitate to restate what has already been described in intimate detail, but I will charactorize some of this thinking, and reference specific passages from others who have already made this journey.
I'm not much of an activist really... I'm a veteran technology guy, and single dad, which about frames the edges of my life. I'm not much for "bandwagons" and causes, although I have passively ($) supported many I felt were worthwhile.
Peak oil is a horse of a different color.
I hope I can shead some light on this complex topic, and encourage people to look into it themselves.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred Johns" <somethingcoolca@hotmail.com>
To: <aaron@peakoil.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 29, 2005 6:44 PM
Subject: Re: Canadian Media Request: Peak Oil - SomethingCool.ca
> Aaron,
>
> Thanks for your quick reply. I've listed some questions below for you to
> answer - please feel free to answer in as much detail as you like. I
> appreciate you taking the time to do this interview - I really think we are
> going to open some eyes.
>
> 1. Tell us a little bit about yourself and how you became involved with
> PeakOil.com.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y name is Aaron Dunlap, and I'm a technology consultant & energy news publisher from Houston Texas.
I became involved with peakoil.com in February of 2004 to help support the growing awareness of hydrocarbon depletion. As a technology/Internet specialist, I felt my greatest contribution to this issue would take the form of supporting an Internet resource like peakoil.com.
Since that time, I have focused on facilitating & fostering an international community of people who understand peak oil, and see the same need I do... to spread the word.
Peakoil.com is a non-profit, member supported website and the staff are 100% volunteers... including myself.
>
> 2. How worried should we really be about the end of oil? We've obviously
> heard from the doomsayers and from those that say there is no oil crisis -
> what should we believe and what are the official numbers?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil does not speak to the "End of Oil".
Peak oil is exactly what the name (coined by Dr. Colin Campbell) indicates; "peak" production.
The midpoint of global conventional hydrocarbon production.
To quote from our site, (Special thanks to Mike Black for the concise explaination)
What is peak oil?
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, a middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output.
Oil production typically follows a bell shaped curve when charted on a graph, with the peak of production occurring when approximately half of the oil has been extracted. With some exceptions, this holds true for a single well, a whole field, an entire region, and presumably the world. The underlying reasons are many and beyond the scope of this primer, suffice to say that oil becomes more difficult and expensive to extract as a field ages past the mid-point of its life.
In the US for example, oil production grew steadily until 1970 and declined thereafter, regardless of market price or improved technologies.
In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Oil, predicted the peaking of US Oil production would occur in the late 1960's.
Although derided by most in the industry he was correct. He was the first to assert that oil discovery, and therefore production, would follow a bell shaped curve over its life. After his success in forecasting the US peak, this analysis became known as the Hubbert's Peak.
The amount of oil discovered in the US has dropped since the late 1930s.
40 years later, US oil production had peaked, and has fallen ever since.
World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, and has declined since then.
If the 40 year cycle seen in the US holds true for world oil production, that puts global peak oil production, right about now; after which oil becomes less available, and more expensive.
Today we consume around 6 times as much oil as we discover.
If we apply Hubbert's Peak to world oil production we estimate that approximately half of all oil that will be recovered, has been recovered, and oil production may reach a peak in the near future, or perhaps already has.
"Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what is in it."
Campbell
What peaking does mean, in energy terms, is that once you've peaked, further growth in supply, is over. Peaking is generally, also, a relatively quick transition to a relatively serious decline at least on a basin by basin basis. And the issue then, is the world's biggest serious question.
Simmons
> 3. There is a book out called "Beyond Oil" that predicts Thanksgiving 2005
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are a number of different predictions for when midpoint oil production, (peak oil), will occur.
"Beyond Oil" by Ken Deffeyes says Thanksgiving 2005.
And the list goes on.
The important thing to note, is that NOBODY, (with a few fringe exceptions), claim peak oil won't happen....
We argue about when it will happen.
Professor Deffey's point is perhaps even more ominous than peak oil itself. That there is a point in time, preceeding peak oil, where we lose the ability to steer clear of the most potent consequences of midpoint oil production; and that this happens long before the actual peak.
A sobering thought.
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281-455-0743
While Aaron and I disgaree on some things, we both came to these conclusions independently. To me, they are patently obvious and inescapable. I think Aaron would agree.
