[Caoimhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')
No, I'm not. Read this quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ill these alternatives be ready to fill at least 2% shortfall the first year after peak, 4% the year after that, 6% the year after that?

[Ludi]

Ok, but from what you've said there,Caoimhan, you don't have any evidence, just belief.


I'm not asking if you believe it to be the case, I'm asking if you have any evidence.

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', '
')
Obviously, not one source is going to replace oil. The point is there will be multiple efforts to offset the shortfall, including conservation. I suspect the first couple of years will be mostly through demand destruction, then the offset will be slowed down by these alternatives as the investments build up in them.

[Caoimhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'O')k, but from what you've said there,Caoimhan, you don't have any evidence, just belief.
I'm not asking if you believe it to be the case, I'm asking if you have any evidence.

[Ludi]

Oh, ok, I thought so. There's no evidence that alternatives will be ready to make up the gap in 5 - 10 years. I'd have thought there'd be plenty of evidence, since you seem so confident, but okey dokey.

Actually, to tell you the truth, I knew you wouldn't be able to provide any evidence and that your contentions are based entirely on faith. Because I've seen people post that kind of thing time and again on here, and their answers are always the same.

I was really hoping to get you to think a little more clearly about the situation, but maybe, after you've read a little more on the board here, you'll come to a different conclusion from the one you have faith in now.

[Doly]

To clarify things further: all those factors were at play in the oil crisis of the 70s, and they didn't resolve the crisis.

[retiredguy]

It is illogical to assume that alternatives, which depend primarily on using current solar energy, are going to be able to replace fossil fuels which represent 300 million years of stored solar energy.

There is little doubt in my mind that four of the five billion people now living owe their existence to these fossil fuels. Even if it takes a hundred years to deplete these resources, when they are depleted the planet's human population will have to be significantly reduced. Spend some time really thinking about what would happen if the current population would deflate from five billion to one or two billion in a hundred years. I mean really think about it.

Also, try this exercise. Do an energy audit on yourself. Estimate the total amount of electricity, gasoline, natural gas and oil you consume over the course of a year. Next, try to replace those energy sources with alternatives.

I have been actively trying to replace my use of convention energy for the past thirty years. I burn wood (not a perfect solution) and use active/passive solar systems for heat. PV is very expensive, energy-intensive to produce and lasts about twenty years (even without batteries) and provides 10-25% of my needs. Wind is cost-prohibitive for an individual and geographically challenged.

The bottomline is that alternatives aren't going to make up the difference if we wish to continue to live as we do now.

Selling a sea-change in lifestyle and population control to the masses is going to be nearly impossible. Until the wolf is at the door. And then it will be too late.

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is illogical to assume that alternatives, which depend primarily on using current solar energy, are going to be able to replace fossil fuels which represent 300 million years of stored solar energy.

[Caoimhan]

I don't have evidence, because evidence is impossible.

<Reductio ad absurdum>

Ludi... give me evidence that you will be alive tomorrow. If you can't, then don't tell me that you have faith that you will be alive tomorrow. Faith that you will be alive tomorrow is unacceptable. Therefore, you should put your affairs in order and say goodbye to your family, because without evidence to the contrary, you most certainly will die tonight.

</Reductio ad absurdum>

Now, the personal energy audit and attempt to achieve energy independence is a great proof-of-concept, however. Many people are already doing it, even with the disadvantages of the expense of using alternatives that are quite costly due to their small scale of production.

I'm currently researching how to build your own energy-saving/energy-producing technology on a budget from available, off the shelf materials.

One of the most promising, I think, is a solar-thermal-electric generator. It would involve:
1) A simple solar-thermal collector, similar to a passive solar water heater, perhaps using concentration troughs.
2) A simple geo-thermal heat sink loop.
3) And in between, a home-made Stirling cycle engine.

The great thing about this system is that one might not need batteries to store energy. The energy could theoretically be stored thermally in sealed & insulated water barrells. Water has an enormous specific heat capacity. Using those barrells as a thermal mass to store energy, the Stirling cycle engine could run on into the night. A secondary power source of a biomass furnace could also provide the thermal energy needed to run the system.

[retiredguy]

Fossil fuels are a one-time gift. When they are gone, we will have to live sustainably with energy that is provided real-time. Granted, we only convert a tiny, tiny percentage of that energy for human use currently.

But, as you say, collecting this energy is an enormous problem. One that will require a substantial amount of the remaining fossil fuels to achieve. And that pre-supposes that all of this solar energy we now don't use is "wasted." I would submit that a substantial amount of this energy is required to maintain the current ecosystem.

Powering down and reducing the population are the only real solutions to this problem IMHO. But we had better start doing this now. The recent energy bill before Congress is not going to do this. It's simply another misguided attempt to maintain the status quo.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caoimhan', '
')Ludi... give me evidence that you will be alive tomorrow. If you can't, then don't tell me that you have faith that you will be alive tomorrow. Faith that you will be alive tomorrow is unacceptable. Therefore, you should put your affairs in order and say goodbye to your family, because without evidence to the contrary, you most certainly will die tonight.

[NEOPO]

and I will defend the doomers who are planning to move to the forest and strive for self sufficiency

Screw you buddy!!!

We are the problem and we are the solution.

We dont need a fucking techno messiah!!!
We dont need oil from turkey guts!!!
We dont need you to remind us of jack shit!!!

dig it!!!

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'S')pend some time really thinking about what would happen if the current population would deflate from five billion to one or two billion in a hundred years. I mean really think about it.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'a')nd I will defend the doomers who are planning to move to the forest and strive for self sufficiency
...
We dont need a fucking techno messiah!!!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caoimhan', 'A')s I read these forums, I sometimes get the impression that people are forgetting a few things about Peak Oil:

1) Peak Oil is primarily a problem of economics, not the environment.