by rdberg1957 » Wed 10 Jun 2015, 13:51:36
Do I believe that humans will be probably become extinct relatively soon given the crises that confront us? Yes. What relatively soon means I don't know. I don't believe that is predictable because there are too many moving parts. Extinction is built in to the equation because the sun will nova, the Earth will burn to a crisp. If we look at the history of species other than ourselves we can get some idea of lifespans which are possible. Bacteria have greater lifespans than reptiles which have greater longevity overall than mammals. My impression is that climatologists and biologists are not sanguine about our future.
As a species, we have survived a great deal and in some ways we are improving. Governments, despite problems and propaganda, have improved our lot by decreasing violence amongst us. However, I believe governments are likely to be overwhelmed by the enormity of changes on the horizon. The changes are happening now, but we have trouble perceiving them and evaluating the threats. The threats include peak oil, climate change, fresh water depletion, ocean PH, resource depletion of all kinds, economic inequality, overshoot, and financial distress. Sometimes, some of us overstate the threats based on skewed data. Hence, doomerism. Sometimes, some of us deny threats because of our ability to overcome past difficulties or because it is inconvenient to perceive threats accurately. Just because we survived the development of the atomic bomb doesn't mean that lots of people at Hiroshima and Nagasaki did. It is really hard to be right about scenarios which involve catastrophes because we haven't been very good at predicting them. We are certainly getting better at predicting earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes.
Our efforts at predicting when oil will peak have been frustrated by multiple changes in oil production and consumption based on price, leveraging of technology, and other factors. It may not be possible to predict the occurrence of peaking within an error band of ten or twenty years, much less give a year. Will it happen? I would be very surprised if it didn't given the history of oil wells and regions.
If doomerism means living life in panic mode, then I am not a doomer. I believe it is quite possible that I could live to see financial collapse and other sequelae of peak oil. I watch, I listen, I try to support what I think are better ways to live. I am not likely to survive a meltdown so I don't fret or try to prepare in a material way. I think it is possible for humans to escape demise, but the changes required of us by our environment are enormous. In short, my hair is not on fire even if the house may be soon. I'm sure I will panic if I see major disruptions which are peak oil related. I already see signs of frayed infrastructure, international conflict, and such. I would say I am an existentialist and start with the premise that existence is absurd, that any good that comes in life is wonderful, that living in the present while being aware of the future is the best I can do.
