by Ibon » Fri 27 Mar 2015, 15:41:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', ' ')We are a beast than cannot and will not be stopped until a real predator takes us out of the equation. We can pray and hope all we want to, but it's too little, too late.
Timo, I noticed your use of Overshoot Predator needed some clarification. I will explain this concept briefly. It is metaphorical and I am using poetic license which I have to point out because as an ecologist I first have to acknowledge that An Overshoot Predator is not a factual phenomenon in ecological sciences. The metaphor is valid however to help in understanding.
Human predators where never big carnivores like lions and grizzly bears although they did way back in history make a small contribution in controlling our numbers. Our "predators", especially since we started agriculture and civilizations, has been first and foremost germs and also famine. These where the two most important factors in limiting our population up until a couple hundred years ago. Novel diseases spread when we left tribal areas and started living in city states; small pox, bubonic plague, TB, polio, etc, etc, Crop failures caused famines throughout all continents that made periodic contributions to scaling back our numbers. This worked for the past 10,000 years in preventing that hockey stick spike in human population.
Germ theory, the microscope, sanitation, anti biotics allowed us to temporarily conquer the germ predators. Fossil fuels and technology and green revolutions in agriculture all the way up to GMO round up resistant corn and soy helped bring famines to a halt. Food production and germ control removed our two dominant predators in the last 200 years and that is why we have the hockey stick of population.
This exponential growth is so severely depleting resource sinks from energy, to minerals to soil and fresh water and marine fisheries to unstable climate that all of these examples have become manifestations of human overshoot.
The consequences that this will cause will be the reintroduction of limits that will curtail the exponential population growth and eventually reduce our numbers back down to carrying capacity. These consequences are what I have called the Overshoot Predator. Consequences that reintroduce the population control limits that we removed when we temporarily conquered disease and famine. The Overshoot Predators arsenal will be drought and other climate change disruptions, global warming, fresh water depletion causing agriculture collapse, Super bugs and epidemics emerging like Ebola that we cannot contain due to crowded urban poverty, soil depletion, collapse of marine fisheries. All of these examples of the Overshoot Predator are reintroducing our historical predators that ecologically held us in balance in the ecosystems we moved about in. Disease and famine.
Prior to 200 years ago we were resource constrained because we had not yet mastered tool use to exploit energy sources and we had not yet had science mature to the temporary effectiveness is has achieved today. Constraints from overshoot is a different source of constraint but serves the same purpose.
7 billion getting squeezed through the bottle neck of constraining resources will cause disease and famine to take us down. Let's be clear. Yes, there is demographic changes in fertility already starting which will help this. We do have the chance to prevent some collapses by continuing to reduce fertility and consumption in the decades ahead. This is already started and is welcome. But the inertia of 7 billion, many young and not yet of breeding age, will push us toward constraints no matter what we do so that yes, the Overshoot Predator will rise and do his or her part.
Worshiping the OP is perhaps a little provocative. But accepting the OP isn't. The OP will restore strength and integrity to our remaining population. that is almost worthy of worship. Also the way the OP manifests might accelerate cultural evolution toward self regulation. We might not want to worship this but we certainly can be grateful for the OP's appearance in reversing a trend that would only have increased the exponential suffering of billions more had these controls not been re introduced to check exponential growth.
Wars are also a manifestation of The Overshoot Predator. The wars of the 21st century will all be at their origins resource wars.
Should we be grateful for wars as well?
Actually both the enlightened and un enlightened solutions are worthy. This is where some of you will disagree I'm sure.
We cannot take our biosphere to such extreme levels of abuse and then believe that we will be spared the un enlightened primitive responses of humans who have become Kudzu Apes.
Kudzu Apes are not deserving or worthy of mercy.
Human beings are absolutely deserving and worthy of compassion and grace and mercy.
Some of you will not go there I know. But like all of you I have a right to my own spiritual / ecological interpretations. And natural selection will ultimately be the arbiter even of our cultural trajectory making any of our individual opinions or beliefs mute. I happen to believe that my perspective on this will be mirrored in reality events. This is not dogma..
If demographic transition accelerates and we get into carrying capacity without the OP than I will shift my beliefs. I just seriously doubt this happening.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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