[DesuMaiden]

I live in a big city. There is a lack of arable land in most big cities. Here's a fun fact. It requires 1.2 acres of arable land to feed a single person. A city with 200,000 plus people crammed in 200 square kilometers simply doesn't have that much arable land for each person. Just do the math. There are about 1,000 people per square kilometer. Meaning each person gets only around 30x30 square meters of space. An acre is 63 x 63 square meters of space. Each person needs at least 63 x 63 square meters of space to grow enough food, but there is simply not that much space in a city with a population density of 1,000 people per square kilometer. And much of the 30 x 30 square meters of space each person gets in a city is not arable land. Most of it is either concrete or non-arable.

A city, by its definition, is a place that exceeds the carrying capacity of its local environment, and therefore requires the importation of resources (such as food) in order for its citizens to survive. When oil becomes too scarce in another 10 to 20 years, cities will no longer be able to import large quantities of food from rural areas. That means cities will need to grow virtually all of their food within the city limits, but there isn't enough arable land in most cities for everyone to maintain a productive diet.

So I think people, who want to survive the peak oil die off, should move away from big cities. And they should move into the country sides or rural areas, which have enough arable land for growing enough food for a productive diet. There isn't enough arable land in most big cities to maintain a good diet. Also, the die-off accompanying the collapse of industrial civilization will wipe off at least 80% of the current population. If the population is going to be reduced to under 2 billion people, then most of the current human population will perish. Most of the human population in cities will cease to exist by the end of this century. So if you want to survive, I strongly recommend moving away from a big city, and move into the rural areas. That way you can find enough arable land to grow enough food for survival. Cities will be living hell in another 10 to 20 years because without sufficient oil to transport food into cities, cities will not have enough arable land to grow enough food for its citizens.

The only people, who can possibly survive and thrive in the collapse of industrial civilization, would be people living in rural or wilderness areas where they can grow their own food. City dwellers will most likely starve to death in droves. And no, vertical farming is not going to save city dwellers from the fuel and food shortages in another 10 to 20 years. This article explains why vertical farming will not solve our agricultural problems.

http://www.alternet.org/story/146686/wh ... d_problems

So, I suggest anyone, who plans on surviving the die off, to move away from cities. Move into the rural areas, and grow your own food there because only in rural areas will there be enough arable land to grow enough food for survival.

[GHung]

No no no.... stay in your warm, comfortable cities. You won't like it out here in the boonies. People here talk funny, predators will eat your pets, and almost everyone votes Republican. I even wear my overalls 2-3 days in a row. Yuck! The nearest Starbucks is a 20 mile round trip, and there's no pizza delivery, no cable TV, and the internet is kind of slow. There was even horse poop out on our road the other day.

Y'all won't like it here

[Ibon]

Yes, stay in the city. You might lose your internet connection if you go out in the country.

Never allow cyber circumcision to happen or else there will be no more meaning in your life. lol

[vtsnowedin]

Your math skills or at least your math writing skills leave a lot to be desired. Don't mix metric and English unless it is totally necessary. A 1000 people in a square kilometer 1000meters X1000 meters would mean that each gets 1000 square meters. That is a square 31.62 meters on each side.
An acre is 43560 square feet and nobody cares how many square meters that is. That comes out to 208 feet nine inches by 208 ft. 9inches.
But yes you need to move to the country and start growing and raising your own food. You will find it is both instructive and calming.

[vtsnowedin]

Now to get your point into English let's consider New york city. area 302.6 square miles , population 8,175133 works out to 27,016.3 per sq. mile. or 42.2 per acre. or just 1032 sq. feet per person the size of a nice apartment.
But have no fear there is this magical place called Iowa that has lots of acres and not many people. When they are not picking future presidents these people grow food on their acres and ship it to the cities. As long as you keep sending them presidential candidates and money they will keep growing and sending you food.

[Newfie]

We live in Philadelphia, center city, nice neighborhood. Three story house with 4 apartments. Amongst other factors the fear that the city could collapse led us to buy a 44' sailboat, which we keep about an hour outside the city.

We live in that sailboat part time. Right now it's about 10°F outside going to 0°F overnight. We are on the boat. Made a nice pork roast for dinner. The boat is kept ready to roll, 365. Well, except for right now, with the canal froze over solid, but that is unusual.

In the event we can't drive to the boat we have a folding (more capable than your would think) rowboat behind our house. It assembles in about 15 minutes, and it is only 4 blocks to the river. Traveling to our big boat by our small boat would be an adventure for sure, but doable. The river is tidal, but runs in the right direction 14 hours a day.

In the meantime the city house is appreciating nicely, rents pay the mortgage and will fund our soon to be retirement. Until it doesn't. But then things will be different in unimaginable ways.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'W')e live in Philadelphia, center city, nice neighborhood. Three story house with 4 apartments. Amongst other factors the fear that the city could collapse led us to buy a 44' sailboat, which we keep about an hour outside the city.

We live in that sailboat part time. Right now it's about 10°F outside going to 0°F overnight. We are on the boat. Made a nice pork roast for dinner. The boat is kept ready to roll, 365. Well, except for right now, with the canal froze over solid, but that is unusual.
.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'N')o no no.... stay in your warm, comfortable cities. You won't like it out here in the boonies. People here talk funny, predators will eat your pets, and almost everyone votes Republican. I even wear my overalls 2-3 days in a row. Yuck! The nearest Starbucks is a 20 mile round trip, and there's no pizza delivery, no cable TV, and the internet is kind of slow. There was even horse poop out on our road the other day.

Y'all won't like it here

[GHung]

careinke asked: "Wow, you only have a 20 mile round trip for Starbucks?"

Only because the one supermarket in our small town closed its florist shop and put in a Starbucks kiosk. Doesn't seem to be doing a lot of business though.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Since no one seems able to predict the collapse date within a decade, or more likely a generation, it seems pretty silly to flee the city expecting "collapse" real soon now.

(And no, doomers constantly predicting imminent collapse and being wrong EVERY YEAR don't get to say "I called it" when they happen to be right in 2050 if it happens -- at least not if they want a shred of credibility).

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'W')e live in Philadelphia, center city, nice neighborhood. Three story house with 4 apartments. Amongst other factors the fear that the city could collapse led us to buy a 44' sailboat, which we keep about an hour outside the city.

We live in that sailboat part time. Right now it's about 10°F outside going to 0°F overnight. We are on the boat. Made a nice pork roast for dinner. The boat is kept ready to roll, 365. Well, except for right now, with the canal froze over solid, but that is unusual.

[Whitefang]

Cities are a huge trap for people when they collapse, but so is the countryside when the power goes down.
The number one issue is that you cannot possibly defend your house for being outnumbered.
Therefore into the wild, strategic relocation is the best option when you have prepped for it for you will die within days/weeks without knowing what to do.
Even had a business with this hobby of mine, just sold my company van and Dodge pick up with Cummings diesel.
Will work for food! hihi....or just for free, for fun:

http://intothewild.vpweb.nl/default.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orking for peace of mind and a natural way of life
I am helping others to move out of town, for weeks or years, both for the natural beauty and as a strategic choice to relocate close to nature with clean water, air and forest.
Together we can find a way to make it work within the limits of a tight budget.
I have experience with moving people abroad and immigration documents, will do my best for 10 euro/hour.
Many preppers are relocating to doomsteads which is good for learning to cope with less and being self sufficient.
Problem is defending your house against many when/if the power goes down.
Best option is to use/stay connected with all that society has to offer and be prepared to bug out, be ready.
I have studied peakoil and abrupt climate change for decades, now is the time to make a move while money still works and food is plenty.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

[Whitefang]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')roblem as I see it Fang is that there are few place to bugout to anymore. Those big empty unpopulated places on the world globe are most unpopulated because they can support few people. Deserts, mountains, swamps are not a good alternative.

[Pops]

If being overrun is the biggest problem in the sticks where population concentration is low, how is staying in the city where the concentration is high any better?

[Don35]

Seriously, this is a question? Yes, get out!! (already out and hidden

[PieceOfMine]

Arable land today is about 2000 m2 per person, IIRC. That would translate to well over 1/2 acre - worldide. But there's fish and game, and some regions harvest 3 times per year, or two. Lowest number I've seen is 148 m2 per person.

There's not much food in a modern city. But I think a well-stocked basement in the outskirts of a city would be a nice place to survive a very quick collapse, as most people would either stay put in front of their screens till they got bored to death, or leave it asap, in search for farms and the famous canned food of the survivalists. Hunker down till the zombies have left. Btw, does anyone here know the half-life of a population of cannibals?

Is it a new policy that thread-titles are questions?

[Shaved Monkey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PieceOfMine', ' ')Btw, does anyone here know the half-life of a population of cannibals?

[Newfie]

If boating fun.....
Yes it is. What good is life if you can't have some joy? You hate gardening but you are gonna have a small farm? Good luck with that!

However, given what big boats cost to own and maintain, I would think that having a bug-out baby farm in a rural setting in a warmer climate ......
Until someone with an AK-47 or three decides it is theirs.

-- or a resource heavy investment chunk of your portfolio (as a hedge) you could swap for such a farm when you're ready -- would make far more economic sense.
I dunno, I think the 4 apartment house is a pretty damn good hedge.
Maybe the cottage in my Moms hometown will do?
Or perhaps the 168 acre wood lot will be a decent hedge?

(I just looked at boattrader.com (and aside from occasionally renting a small fishing boat, no, I have no economic interest in boats) -- I was stunned at how many 20-40 year old 40+ foot boats cost well into six figures -- that's just to buy the beast). .......
You looked at boat trader and now your an expert? Yes boats can be expensive. So can houses, and farms, and condos, and about everything else.

This seems especially true given that the odds that the actual collapse happens soon are FAR less than, say, than having money to deal with declining health or other needs in your retirement you're preparing for being HIGHLY desirable. Simple scans to screen for issues can cost several thousands of dollars. This is BEFORE any treatment or surgery. Medical insurance is either very high deductible or very expensive per month for the vast majority of folks. (I'm 55 and in decent health and my total annual medical expenses are now my biggest expense. Medicare will help, but older people have far more issues). .....
So 3 years ago I took a few month sabbatical. It cost $2,450/month to maintain my work healt insurance. Maybe you should look into the cost of health care outside the U.S. and international medical insurance. You might be surprised that what you are discribing can actually be viewed as a BENEFIT of this life style.

So just out of curiosity, if the far more likely non-doom scenario ordinary Americans will face by the many tens of millions over the next 30 years unfolds, what's the plan? Blaming the 1%? .......
No, I'll just sail off into then sunset and enjoy my margaritas. Here you are interjecting a lot. This is much more reflective of either what you believe, or conversations you have had with others. It has nothing to do with ME! How do you know I'm not a 1%er?

Note: I'm NOT trying to be mean here. I'm just curious about the financial thought process. Do you assume that in the next few decades a "collapse" is highly likely? (I'm not talking about things getting worse in some aspects -- I'm talking about things getting so bad it's tough to live in cities).......
I don't know what the likely hood is, I can't assess with any accuracy when it will happen. However, living in a center city situation IF it happens it could happen FAST. I don't even know what IT is, but cloud something like Ferguson happen this summer? Sure it could. That could easily make MY neighborhood unlivable. Doom may well unfold regionally, as in São Paulo.