[dashster]

I normally think of Yergin as the ultimate cornucopian, but Michael Lynch probably should have that title. He is coming out with a book this summer entitled: The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen.

[westexas]

Following is an excerpt from an OpEd that Lynch wrote in August, 2009, where he predicted that oil prices would soon be back down to close to $30. Note that Brent averaged $80 in 2010 and $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive–for a four year average price in excess of $100 for 2010 to 2013 inclusive.

Based on Lynch’s track record and based on his current revised forecast for a $50 to $60 price (about twice his previous prediction), I suppose that we should expect an average Brent price of about $150 to $180 for 2016 to 2019 inclusive.

'Peak Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy
By MICHAEL LYNCH
Published: August 24, 2009

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to the historical level of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincing policymakers in Washington and elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price.”

[forbin]

"...On right-wing message boards (which includes the Wall Street Journal) you will see Peak Oil label as an agenda of the left...."

Dunno why that is , are right wing Americans incapable of adding up ? ) just suits their purposes I guess

For all his protestations I failed to see Michael Lynch talking around the UK North Sea Oil production back higher than the 1999 peak. Full blown capitalism and state of the art tech also have failed to beat that year as well

extenders of field - that fine

re-naming resources so that they can be called "oil" , that's fine as well , just pushes the date forwards a tad of eventual peak ( probably renamed " Peak Burnable $h!t we now call Oil , or Peak BSO ( just peak BS ?? ))

A finite resource on a finite planet always increasing and never running out - must be selling snake oil

Forbin

[ROCKMAN]

"...that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen." Hmm? I've estimated that the run up in oil prices in recent years has cost oil consumers an extra $1.2 TRILLION. I've got to think that has caused a wee bit of distress.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('forbin', '&')quot;...On right-wing message boards (which includes the Wall Street Journal) you will see Peak Oil label as an agenda of the left...."

Dunno why that is , are right wing Americans incapable of adding up ? ) just suits their purposes I guess

[Pops]

He couldn't spend too much time on it, it will only sell while the price of oil is in the toilet.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', '.').. an OpEd that Lynch wrote in August, 2009, where he predicted that oil prices would soon be back down to close to $30.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('forbin', '&')quot;... right-wing ….. right wing Americans ...re-naming resources so that they can be called "oil"

[westexas]

Plant,

You are certainly one of the more interesting characters I have run into.

I guess you are right that Lynch, when he wrote his column in August, 2009 could look up the recent price data and observe that the WTI spot price averaged $39 in February, 2009:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... s=RWTC&f=M

Based on your approach, I guess I could say that I accurately predicted an average Brent spot price of $99 for 2014, by looking it up.

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I like your approach. The possibilities are endless, when one can claim credit, after the fact, for predictions by looking up historical data, but I digress.

When Lynch wrote his column, in August, 2009, WTI averaged $69, and as noted above, the average Brent price for 2010 to 2013 (and in fact for a five year period, 2010 to 2014) was slightly above $100, roughly three times his--forward looking--predicted price.

P.S. I predict that the New England Patriots will win the 2015 Super Bowl.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')lant?

Oil was never $30 in 2009, 2010, or 2011. Not in 2012 or 2013. Not even 2014. The Lynch/Yergin/Plant conspiracy has been unveiled finally.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', 'P')lant,

You are certainly one of the more interesting characters I have run into.

[Subjectivist]

Part of really wishes this were true, wishes that we could turn the clock back 15 years to when things were looking up economically and every time we needed more oil someone would jst drill a well and sell it to us for $20/bbl.

The part of me that fears climate change is less thrilled with what we would do to Earth if we had more decades of cheap oil to burn.

[shallow sand]

Lynch is a perma-bear on crude prices, which in the last 20 years means he has been right sometimes and wrong sometimes. Just like the perma-bulls have been right sometimes and wrong sometimes. However, he has primarily been wrong more than right based on the price action in the past 15-20 years.

Since 1997 we have sold oil at the wellhead from $8 to $140. Funny thing, we are around $50 right now. Prior to 2005, $50 was unheard of on the high side. Ten years later, it is considered too low to support most exploration in the United States.

There may be a flood of $150 oil, $50 flood remains to been seen, but I would not bet on it. I wonder what the shale co. ceo's would say about the future of their businesses if they were told WTI sub $60 will be the reality for the next ten years? Better yet, I wonder what all of those who have lost their jobs in the shale carnage would think about abundant supplies of $50-60 WTI?

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'N')ow, if you look at the daily closing prices during 2009, you'll see that between Feb. 9 2009 and Feb. 25 2009 the price of WTI oil was continuously below $40/bbl, falling into the mid to low 30s on several days. The lowest price oil traded at during this period was just over $32 bbl --- just as I said.
Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', ' ')The daily WTI prices are available via the link that I always have in the PO.com Oil Price Challenge spreadsheet.
Here's the link again: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'H')e couldn't spend too much time on it, it will only sell while the price of oil is in the toilet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', 'B')ased on Lynch’s track record and based on his current revised forecast for a $50 to $60 price (about twice his previous prediction), I suppose that we should expect an average Brent price of about $150 to $180 for 2016 to 2019 inclusive.