[AgentR11]

Interesting question rattling around twitter... Ceasefire doesn't start till Sunday; Kiev is shelling Donetsk right now; question is, should Russia/D&L go ahead and liquidate the Debelsteve pocket. I'd be very surprised if they didn't have the grads in place to do it. So question is... will they.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Ukraine retakes its border with Russia effectively leaving the people of Novorossyia trapped and separated from their "guarantor" Russia.

[Withnail]

Translation of leaflets dropped by shell in Debatselvo Kessel.

[radon1]

Debaltsevo is Ukraine's largest railway junction and a key transportation link between Lugansk and Donetsk. It has already been heavily mined by the Ukie forces. Ideally, D&L would prefer to save it from destruction and would rather see the Ukie troops in the pocket peacefully surrendering.

[radon1]

http://en.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vosto ... 11-12.html

Video, English subtitles

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oundup of Novorossia for February 11-12
1. The situation in the DPR and LPR.
2. Kiev is no longer hiding mass desertion in the ranks of its army.
3. Poroshenko may soon leave the post of President of Ukraine.
4. The meeting of heads of "Norman Four" was completed.
5. Vladimir Putin answered questions of reporters in Minsk.
6. VR deprived Russian journalists of accreditation.
7. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the fund is ready to give Ukraine a loan amounting to 17.5 billion dollars.
8. "Gazprom" warned Ukraine for the umpteenth time.
9. Police detained a minibus carrying a large quantity of ammunition at a checkpoint near the town of Izyum.
10. Political agitation in Odessa reached a new level.

[AgentR11]

I've harped this since the beginning. The prize for Russia is the Crimea. Everything up till now has served that purpose; and now Crimea is so well defended, only the full force of the US military could stand a chance of recapturing it; and doing such a thing almost guarantees the use of nuclear weapons.

Thus. Crimea is a done deal, irrevocable. Ukraine will never again control it.

Oh, and today, Rosneft just flat out paid their due bonds; no refinance required or requested. Just wrote a dang check. Such an indicator of "tatters.."
http://rt.com/business/231707-rosneft-d ... 7-billion/

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'O')h, and today, Rosneft just flat out paid their due bonds; no refinance required or requested. Just wrote a dang check. Such an indicator of "tatters.."

[radon1]

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/116325.html

The situation at the front by the evening of February 12th

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Briefly on the situation at the front by the evening of February 12th.

1. Despite the talk of absence of the encirclement, the junta failed to unblock the M-103 road and capture Logvinovo.
...
2. Under Mariupol the junta "offensive" ended up being especially senseless and both sides returned to the previous situation when the postions of the sides are separated by a strip akin to a neutral strip.
...
3. Shelling of the cities didn't stop and we can be sure that during the remaining days until the possible cease-fire the junta will try to fire the maximal number of artillery and rocket munitions on Donbass cities.
...
4. Over the recent days the number of junta losses increased due to the encirclement, which is typical for pocket situations.
...

[AgentR11]

This is what a lot of western oriented writers are missing. ALMOST ALL of the dollar / euro denominated debt is held by companies; not the RF government. Yes, its a kleptocratic tangled web; but accounting wise, Rosneft is just Rosneft; and Bob Co is just Bob Co.

So lets take Bob Co for an example. Bob Co's a wheat exporter; he has revenue in Dollars and Euro for the most part; most of his expenses are in ruble, and some capital investment in Euros. If Bob Co can take his Euro revenue and pay off his Euro debt; sanctions have no effect. If Bob Co can NOT; Putin Inc gets to decide whether Bob Co is friend of Putin or not. Lets say Bob Co is more a Yeltsin fan; and Putin tells him to go drown himself. Well, after some struggles, Bob Co defaults.

What are the effects of Bob Co's default? Does it effect the RF's interest rates? Nope. RF doesn't borrow any dollars or Euros to speak of, and collects numerous taxes directly in Euros. No, Bob Co just goes into bankruptcy. Typical drill, sell assets, top of the food chain gets first nibble, blah blah. You know who top of the food chain is when a corporation goes belly up? The federal government of that country. Betcha Bob Co owes a bunch of taxes, no? In the end, Bob Co ceases to exist, the RF gets all the choice nibbles, and the Euro bond holders that were stupid enough to lend money to Bob Co get to rummage through the left overs hoping something can cover a bit of their losses.

Its the 'big error'. That Russian Federation rainy day fund is no such thing. That rainy day fund plus sanctions is how Putin gets to kill his adversaries and consolidate power.

But Rosneft? Just plain ole revenue; no rainy day fund required.

[radon1]

http://voicesevas.ru/news/ukraine/9830- ... henko.html

(edited)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')arosh dumps President: we made a mistake by supporting the elections of Poroshenko!

While negotiations were held in Minsk, Yarosh, the leader of the [ultra-nationalist] Right Sector, quickly began dumping Poroshenko. Apparently, it is the Right Sector that is to become a "grave digger" of the acting President.

Yarosh, accused the President of betrayal, collaborationism, loss of Ukrainian territories, corruption, kickbacks and other mortal sins. Moreover, he openly threatened Poroshenko with a coup and predicted the end of the "evil-ruler" oligarchic Rada, thus providing a plan for a new overthrow: elimination of Poroshenko, "Reichstag put in fire", full-scale war throughout Ukraine.
...
This performance was made in a hospital bed in the midst of the negotiations of the "Normandy Quartet" in Minsk. It appears that he and his "supervisor" oligarch Kolomoisky are in a firm belief that "Minsk-2" will stand and ready to undermine Ukraine from within in order to destroy all the agreements.

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ') Yes, its a kleptocratic tangled web; but accounting wise, Rosneft is just Rosneft; and Bob Co is just Bob Co.

[radon1]

Provocation warning

http://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_46245

(translation)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yesterday 19:51 (local time)

12.02.15. Report of the Intelligence agency of the Lugansk army.

"According to intelligence reports of the Lugansk army, the Ukrainian military have planned provocation with numerous victims among the civilian population in the village of Stanitsa Luganska after 20:00, in order to disrupt the agreements reached in Minsk. Presumably, the provocation will involve the use of a special caliber missile fire similar to that occurred in Kramatorsk."

[radon1]

http://fortruss.blogspot.it/2015/02/min ... an-17.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')insk-2 is over before it began: 17 volunteer battalions refuse to obey Kiev

Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Vladimir Kononov said that 17 territorial battalions involved in the fighting in the South-East of Ukraine pulled out of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and went under the control of the Right Sector.
...

"Right Sector" - is a Ukrainian union of radical nationalist organizations.

[radon1]

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2 ... ussia.html

The Czech Republic: Doomed without Russia

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Zeman virtually admitted that there was a group of countries within the European Union who were against the anti-Russian sanctions, and declared that with regard to relations between the West and Russia, priority should be given to trade and economic cooperation rather than political confrontation.

[radon1]

http://tass.ru/en/world/777430

Kiev's ex-deputy chief of paramilitary battalion turned lawmaker vows to defy Minsk deal

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')KIEV, February 13. /TASS/. A former deputy commander of the Azov paramilitary battalion, which remains beyond the control of the central command in Kiev, currently holding a seat in the Ukrainian parliament has vowed to defy the Minsk Accords.

Igor Moseichuk said on his page in Facebook he would exert the maximum efforts to upset the implementation of these agreements in parliament.

"That’s an act of treason. Betrayal of national interests. This is the sole way of describing the text regarding the implementation of the Minsk Accords that Leonid Kuchma signed with the Donetsk and Luhansk republics on behalf of Ukraine," says the radically-minded legislator.

[AgentR11]

West's idea of Free Speech. Protest against something that serves our interests, you go to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

http://www.unian.net/society/1041558-ge ... atsii.html

[Withnail]

Another Ukrainian tank near Debatselvo has new owners.

[AgentR11]

Linky of interest:
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/al ... nsk-2.html
I know certain people hate anything that doesn't come from cnn and fox, or at least rferl (hey, you could call that referral.. cute); but this is really a thoughtful look at the position Kiev has gotten itself into.

re Poroshenko
"You have to save face, since you are not independent and don’t have any genuine power. Your competitor in Dnepropetrovsk already opened a parallel General Staff, and the efforts to disperse the Aidar failed completely. You even destroyed the coalition when you tried to make your friend/godfather the Prosecutor General."

I almost feel sorry for the moron. Just a business guy trying to advance his interests; but he's gotten in way over his head, and getting eaten alive by everyone around him, from both sides.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'W')est's idea of Free Speech. Protest against something that serves our interests, you go to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

http://www.unian.net/society/1041558-ge ... atsii.html

[radon1]

After putting reasonable effort and time into attempts to keep this thread consistent with the policies specified in the opening post, I have to declare now that these attempts have failed. The thread has been finally overrun by the local special-purpose shill/troll earlier in the thread, and further maintenance of this thread in its originally intended form is therefore meaningless.

I would therefore be grateful if the users would refrain from posting to this thread, and if the moderators would close this thread from further postings.

I am grateful to the posters who contributed to this thread in good faith, and to the moderators who have dealt with the issues in this thread.

Would finally point out couple points that the mini-world of this thread illuminates (however petty and laughable they are):

- you are not left alone even if you request to be left alone, sounds familiar?

- to those who like to expatiate upon "freedom of speech" or "rule of law": they can be in place, but you may just have no access to them. And in fact, you will not have this access, despite all the happy declarations to the contrary. Can be seen even at this petty level.