[toolpush]

And don't forget the poor Canadians, down 34%, Last week 391, this week 256 a fall of 135 rigs
Now I am sure it isn't just because they all have kind bosses who decided to give them Christmas New Year off. Just think two more weeks like that, and they will be down to zero rigs working.
The Canadian drilling season is during the winter. When the roads melt, sorry when the snow melts, they all go for a break, and come back when things dry out.


http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... U9MQ==&t=1

[shallow sand]

I probably should not have started a thread like this. Hate for people to be out of work. I'm sure there are a lot of people who were getting paid more than they ever had, who will be laid off. Ok to merge.

[ROCKMAN]

Tricky dynamic: 10 rigs could drill 50 EFS wells in the next 12 months. But those same wells could be drilled by 5 rigs. A matter of rig utility rate. Maybe a more interesting challenge: how many EFS wells spud in the next 6 months...the next 12 months. Same for all US hz wells.

[Tanada]

From the things I have been reading searching news links on the internet I predict a 50% drop as the minimum, maybe as much as a 75% drop. That is for oil wells, I think most natural gas drilling will still take place as before because we have to import a fair amount from Canada and if their drilling is dropping as fast as toolpush said we might be really hurting. A lot of domestic electricity now comes from natural gas fueled turbines. Not enough gas can easily mean rolling brownouts or even blackouts.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', 'A')nd don't forget the poor Canadians, down 34%, Last week 391, this week 256 a fall of 135 rigs
Now I am sure it isn't just because they all have kind bosses who decided to give them Christmas New Year off. Just think two more weeks like that, and they will be down to zero rigs working.
The Canadian drilling season is during the winter. When the roads melt, sorry when the snow melts, they all go for a break, and come back when things dry out.


http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... U9MQ==&t=1

[toolpush]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... U9MQ==&t=1

Those Canadian bosses are real nice fellas. Looking back over the years, there does seem to be a drop of around 100 rigs for the 2 weeks around Christmas, New Year. I can only imagine they are fairly small wells they are drilling, and the Canadians must get some real good penalty rates for Christmas/New Year. So next week's count will most likely be low, and then a pop the following week. we will see how many go back to work.
Stacking a rig for 2 weeks in a Canadian winter, is not just a matter switching it off and walking away. Things are going to freeze. I would love to hear from some of our Canadians here, on what is the deal?

[GoghGoner]

Slope seems really drastic to start off with compared to 2008 but it is early.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince the beginning of 2014, the number of oil rigs in operation increased by 121, or ~9%. In comparison, oil rigs increased by 64 during the same period last year. Despite this week’s sharp fall, activity in the oil-rich Permian Basin in western Texas drove most of 2014’s increase. This region added 68 oil rigs.

[toolpush]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zht ... portsother

New rig count out.

Canada still dropping. Down 48 I would have though if it was a Christmas break, that this would have been flat at worst?

US down 29 split fairly evenly between oil and gas
Permian down 6
Eagle Ford down 4
California down 6 after a big fall last week
Bakken steady

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', 'h')ttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother

New rig count out.

Canada still dropping. Down 48 I would have though if it was a Christmas break, that this would have been flat at worst?

US down 29 split fairly evenly between oil and gas
Permian down 6
Eagle Ford down 4
California down 6 after a big fall last week
Bakken steady

[Subjectivist]

From Bloomberg, link at the bottom.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. oil drillers laid down the most rigs in the fourth quarter since 2009. And things are about to get much worse.

The rig count fell by 93 in the three months through Dec. 26, and lost another 17 last week, Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) data show. About 200 more will be idled over the next quarter as U.S. oil explorers make good on their promises to curb spending, according to Moody’s Corp.

Drillers are already running the fewest rigs in nine months after a 46 percent drop in U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil in 2014, the steepest decline in six years and the second-worst since the commodity began trading in 1983. The price slipped below $50 a barrel yesterday as U.S. producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries remain in a standoff over market share. Meanwhile, production from Russia and Iraq last month reached the highest level in decades.

“At $50 oil, half the U.S. rig count is at risk,” R.T. Dukes, an upstream analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., said by telephone from Houston. “What happened in the last quarter foreshadows what’s going to be a tough year for operators. It’s looking worse and worse by the day.”

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell $2.65 to settle at $50.04 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The intraday low was $49.68. Brent, the international benchmark, tumbled $3.31 to $53.11 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Core Areas

“Drillers are retrenching into their core areas of production and moving out of less productive, less profitable and less prolific plays,” Matthew Jurecky, head of oil and gas research for the London-based research company GlobalData Ltd., said by telephone from New York yesterday. “In this environment, the one thing that will stop immediately is exploration-type testing in new zones.”

Unlike previous years, when rigs have rebounded following a winter holiday slump, the count “will just continue to drop off,” Steven Wood, Moody’s managing director of oil and gas, said by telephone from New York yesterday. “We would expect to see the rig count drop a couple hundred rigs as we go into the first quarter. And after that, it’s about what happens to commodity prices.”

[Tanada]

How long before the media understands what is going on and reports it to the general public? Most people would rather pay $3.00/gallon for gas than have a shortage where they are restricted by rationing how much they can buy at $2.00/gallon. If oil were back at $85.00/bbl the supply would be much more predictable.

[GoghGoner]

Just today, CNN ran a story on job losses in the oil patch and NPR has had stories on the how cheap oil may negatively effect the economy. I don't read or listen to MSM much but that stuff has filtered through.

[toolpush]

deleted

[toolpush]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zht ... portsother

Well, the rig count is certainly dropping, with more to come by the sounds of things, with stories of Companies going for early retirement of contracts as posted above, still coming through the system.

American count down 61
Permian count down 28 but still above 31 above 12 months ago
Bakken continues its steady decline, down 8
California seems to stopped it drop of the last couple of weeks.
Apart from a 3 from the Eagle Ford and Mississipian, the other shale areas seem to be holding up fairly well. These other areas may have more permit drilling going on, being newer plays.
The gas plays didn’t seem to have changed at all. So with the current cheap Nat gas price, we will have to wait and see if the gas area rigs decline along with the oil rigs or hold up against gravity.

It looks like Canada is back from Christmas dinner, a cheery New Year.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', 'h')ttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother

Well, the rig count is certainly dropping, with more to come by the sounds of things, with stories of Companies going for early retirement of contracts as posted above, still coming through the system.

American count down 61
Permian count down 28 but still above 31 above 12 months ago
Bakken continues its steady decline, down 8
California seems to stopped it drop of the last couple of weeks.
Apart from a 3 from the Eagle Ford and Mississipian, the other shale areas seem to be holding up fairly well. These other areas may have more permit drilling going on, being newer plays.
The gas plays didn’t seem to have changed at all. So with the current cheap Nat gas price, we will have to wait and see if the gas area rigs decline along with the oil rigs or hold up against gravity.

It looks like Canada is back from Christmas dinner, a cheery New Year.

[toolpush]

Subjectivist,

About the gas drilling. Marcellus gas has been getting between $2 and $2.50 all year, and everybody seemed ok with that, waiting for more takeaway capacity to come on stream. In the last few weeks, Marcellus gas has gone below $1!! That is enough to get all the gas players attention and this is in the middle of winter?
I believe we have yet to see the reaction form latest price fall.
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toolpush', 'S')ubjectivist,

About the gas drilling. Marcellus gas has been getting between $2 and $2.50 all year, and everybody seemed ok with that, waiting for more takeaway capacity to come on stream. In the last few weeks, Marcellus gas has gone below $1!! That is enough to get all the gas players attention and this is in the middle of winter?
I believe we have yet to see the reaction form latest price fall.
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

[rockdoc123]

I believe a point missed here is that gas and oil are no longer decoupled in the market as they were when conventionals were still the main game in town. A majority of the oil being produced from shales in each of the basins has a very high gas content. This makes sense given that the best producers have higher pressures which generally comes along with a significant gas content. Because the price of oil was very high producers could accept a low price for gas without too much worry....it was more expensive to reinject it and you can't flare it. As a consequence gas production continued on in a strong fashion regardless of the poor price. Back before the shale boom a year of $3/Mcf gas would have dropped production from most of the pure gas plays and done a pretty good job of emptying storage, resulting in high swings in prices when cold weather or for that matter hot weather hit in various regions. My guess is that as activity drops for shale oil that gas production will also decrease. One almost has to look at these unconventional plays with a view to breakeven prices in terms of BOE rather than barrels or cubic feet.

[toolpush]

Rocdoc,

The shale oil plays maybe producing inelastic priced Nat Gas, but I don't believe that is what is putting the main pressure on the Nat Gas price.
Increases In the last 12 months, in bcf
Eagle Ford up 1.5
Bakken up 0.15
Marcellus up 2.6
Utica up 1.5

So the gas plays have way out weighed the oil shale plays. Also the price of Marcellus gas is around $1 mcf, whereas Henry hub in around $3.
Marcellus is pipeline constrained, and up to 60 projects to add pipeline capacity are in various stages of construction, permitting etc. The REX pipeline is being reversed to bring gas to the mid west, and in not too distance future, most likely Houston.

http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/im ... 01411.xlsx

[rockdoc123]

Toolpush, how are you determining that that gas is coming from dry gas wells and not associated gas from wells producing considerable oil?