[DesuMaiden]

I'm 24 years old. We already reached peak oil. It is only a matter of time until our oil production starts to decline. And civilization will collapse as a result. Will I be able to see the collapse of industrialized civilization within my life time from the absence of fossil fuels?

I believe that one day I will see that cars and air travel becomes too expensive for the average person to afford. Cars and air travel will become restricted to only the super-wealthy sometime in my life time. I doubt I will be able to afford to drive later in my life, as the price of gas goes up.

Do you think industrialized civilization will collapse sometime within my lifetime as a result of the absence of fossil fuels?

[Lore]

I estimate that the chances for your described scenario to play out in your lifetime are pretty good.

[GHung]

You're seeing collapse right now if you know what to look for. There are strong collapse signals in the noise of civilization. What process would you assign to a civilization that is out-running its resource base, degrading its environment, drowning in its own complexity, seeing diminishing returns from ever greater investments, complicit in an extinction level event, utterly dependent upon imaginary resources in the form of faux capital, and completely clueless as to how to change its own self-destructive behavior? I expect you'll see peak humanity in your lifetime. The mother of all collapses began before you were born....
... and the good news is that you saw what was happening. That's a huge advantage.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'Y')ou're seeing collapse right now if you know what to look for. There are strong collapse signals in the noise of civilization. What process would you assign to a civilization that is out-running its resource base, degrading its environment, drowning in its own complexity, seeing diminishing returns from ever greater investments, complicit in an extinction level event, utterly dependent upon imaginary resources in the form of faux capital, and completely clueless as to how to change its own self-destructive behavior? I expect you'll see peak humanity in your lifetime. The mother of all collapses began before you were born....
... and the good news is that you saw what was happening. That's a huge advantage.

[GregT]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do I survive the collapse of civilization?

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '
')How do I survive the collapse of civilization?

[GHung]

Those of you who question our ongoing collapse may want to look hard at global economic inter-dependencies. Also, collapse of our current system will only mean the end of that system, not the end of everything. As with the 'decline and fall' of every civilization, our system of government and set of arrangements will be replaced by something else. What form that something else will take is anybody's guess.

Better, IMO, to make one's own set of arrangements, at least for the essentials. The less reliant one is on complex failing systems, the less likely it is that one will be competing for the remnants of that system. Greer has discussed this at length. Also, a big part of survival has to do with what one is used to. Greer suggests the idea of "pre-collapse"; get used to living on much less now and you won't be making those adjustments later while others are scrambling to maintain the only lifestyles they understand and are prepared for.

In my case, my expectations encompass a broad range of possibilities, including that my personnal/local arrangements may fail. This helps me confront any fears I may have about the future. Working hard to secure one's future and the knowledge that there's a strong possibility that that future may not arrive aren't mutually exclusive. I'm already enjoying the benefits of a lifestyle that makes sense to me, either way.

[vtsnowedin]

I think you will certainly see the collapse. Just watch the news from time to time and watch it as it is happening. It has already started.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'c')ollapse of our current system will only mean the end of that system, not the end of everything.

[Newfie]

Here is a link to the World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global ... t_2014.pdf

It's a good place to start from some pretty thoughtful people.

My take on this is that the large re-insurance companies (MunicH Re, Lloyds, etc.) are taking the risks seriously. Their job is to look t future risks and do analysis.

Another good source is to read some of the reports the various militaries have commissioned. The Germany military did a good one on oil (bottom lin - we will have to realign who our friends are.)

[GHung]

Thanks, Newfie. To today's reading assignments I would add
Trade-Off - Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse (David Korowicz)
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf

[Dybbuk]

Maybe there won't be a collapse. Acting like you know the future is a sure ticket to trouble. It makes you an easy target (later, if not now) for people like Econ101 and copious.abundance

Collapse of some kind is possible and maybe even likely, but not inevitable. There are ways to keep civilization intact if things go right. Big if, to be sure.

[GHung]

Dybbuk said: "There are ways to keep civilization intact if things go right."

Name some that don't involve magical thinking. Humans are in dramatic overshoot of their environment. How to return human population to the carrying capacity of Planet Earth while preserving civilization as we know it,, or increasing the carrying capacity of our planet to sustainably support an ever-increasing human population is a proposition which escapes me. I've yet to see a solution set which isn't chock full of holes. You can start by explaining the process by which we undo the damage we've done to the biosphere in a time-frame that matters to civilization. Be specific, and don't skip the part where we actually stop the current ongoing destruction and extermination of our fellow earthlings..

[Lore]

Change is not some esoteric concept. It is, if anything, indifferent to the human condition. Change may very well be what brought modern humans into existence a 100,000 years ago and what may take us out in the next several decades.

[Lore]

I wonder if ancient civilizations like the Mayan or the Anasazi were aware that they were in collapse? I imagine the last person to turn off the lights probably did.

[GHung]

Modern humans have an unprecedentedly accurate view of the past; specific histories to provide context for their own progress and decline. Funny that, while we have a remarkable ability to quantify our current condition, our ability to deny it's implications seems to be keeping pace. All we have to do is to look around to see how clever we are; consequences be damned.

[Henriksson]

Will you see collapse of some kind? Very likely. Will you see the collapse of civilization? Very unlikely. It will be a different kind of civilization, though.

[RepublicanfromEngland]

When I first found this subject via google video in the summber of 2007, I ignored it, and returned a few weeks later to it, in september I then obtained a book by a BBC employee who worked on the Money programme. He had studied the subject since the end of the century. At the time it wasn't commonly known by many.

I then realised being only eighten at the time, that possibly my future would be quite different from how I saw it, having grown up using a PC, and then at the time I thought I'd get employed in computing, but not actually being qualified to do much. Ofcourse at the time, I became rather disappointed and unhappy that I had realised that the future of an outpost on the moon in my life time probably wouldn't happen. I even recall typing an email to the former Lunar Module Pilot Mr Aldrin who flew on Eagle with his commander to the Sea of Tranquility on his thoughts, I never did receive a reply. My view is a return to the moon by the one hundreth anniversary of the those early missions. 2072

I just accept the possible or quite factual future of the energy problem, and just exist as usual.