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Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby radon1 » Sat 11 Oct 2014, 18:59:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')Will I be able to see the collapse of industrialized civilization within my life time


You don't seem to have a greater likelihood for this than today's 60+ year olds had when they were 24, and possibly you have a lower likelihood of seeing this than they did.
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 11 Oct 2014, 19:31:34

.
complex Civilisations are inherently unstable , their doom come from two sides ,
internal , they have to grow until their own faults crack under the stress
external , some disaster or serie of disasters bring them down

it's usually a mix of both , the more complex they are ,the less they can cope with stressors
as they grow , their base of support is undermined by the heavier load at the top
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby Dybbuk » Sat 11 Oct 2014, 22:21:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'D')ybbuk said: "There are ways to keep civilization intact if things go right."

Name some that don't involve magical thinking. Humans are in dramatic overshoot of their environment. How to return human population to the carrying capacity of Planet Earth while preserving civilization as we know it,, or increasing the carrying capacity of our planet to sustainably support an ever-increasing human population is a proposition which escapes me. I've yet to see a solution set which isn't chock full of holes. You can start by explaining the process by which we undo the damage we've done to the biosphere in a time-frame that matters to civilization. Be specific, and don't skip the part where we actually stop the current ongoing destruction and extermination of our fellow earthlings..


Well, I distinguish "collapse of civilization" from "a big mess that will cause a lot of suffering". The things you mention will most likely bring about plenty of the latter, but I don't think they make the former inevitable. I'd love to be specific, but we're talking about the future here. The future always brings things we can't specifically predict, both good and bad. Now, your typical cornie takes that sentiment and runs with it to proclaim that everything will inevitably work out great, and anyone who denies this is a kook. Not me. I'd say the entire range of envisionable futures are within the realm of possibility, from a Star Trek near-utopia to human extinction.
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby Lore » Sat 11 Oct 2014, 23:18:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'I') wonder if ancient civilizations like the Mayan or the Anasazi were aware that they were in collapse? I imagine the last person to turn off the lights probably did.
I don't know. They might have just been lonely. They didn't have lights or written language. Maybe that person saw the death of his/her people in the bones?


Yeah, you're probably right with the first guess, just lonely. They didn't disappear, the last ones just wandered off looking for a hand and a handout.

In a big world if you crap in your own nest there was always some other place you could go off to and start all over again destroying that environment. Unfortunatly for us humans we've run out of convienant escapes.

Maybe those bones pstarr were chicken bones from what was left of them that came home to roost?
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby Herr Meier » Sun 12 Oct 2014, 08:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')e: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Nope. You won't see it. Believing in it will be an article of faith. Collapse will look like anything else but collapse. It will look like ebola, Arab Spring, ISIS, world-wide economic contraction, regional hyper-inflation, meatless monday, (foodless tuesday?), endless economic theory, potholes, flaking house paint, worn-out shoes, thrift stores, tv antennas, bus trips, stangy underwear, bus stops, cold showers, weakness, scabbies, death. :shock:


Exactly!! Add to that, that medicine gets more and more out of reach, and in the end, death will come as a friend to you.
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 00:38:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
complex Civilisations are inherently unstable , their doom come from two sides ,
internal , they have to grow until their own faults crack under the stress
external , some disaster or serie of disasters bring them down

it's usually a mix of both , the more complex they are ,the less they can cope with stressors
as they grow , their base of support is undermined by the heavier load at the top

Our civilization is highly complex and therefore highly unstable. Thanks for telling me about that.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby Timothy_S » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 05:26:37

You are all very sure about civilization collapsing and I am not here to argue - no way. I was just wondering. Is it possible to adapt? Is it possible that some governments see what is going on and think ahead (unlikely I know) and adapt somehow? Is there anything we can do as a society EXCEPT being self prepared with food, shelter and defense?
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Re: Will I be able to see the collapse of civilization?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 07:52:50

The Workd Economic Forum, In a video introducing their Annaul Rsik Annalysis ( can't recall which year,) stated that they see the risk of disruption (climate, fire, etc) as a certainty. The losses will be beyond what the world insurance industry can handle. Therefore the governments must take on the role of " insurer of last resort."

They went on to say that part of their mission is to advise world governments, those that will listen, on how to prepare themselves for this role. Some do listen, some do not. Not identification of who does what was made.

So, it would seem that some preparation or adaption is going on. But it is impossible to say how much or how effective.
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