[vox_mundi]

Somebody said the "magic" word - MONEY

Ebola 'fear factor' risks economic disaster: World Bank
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-09-e ... world.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he World Bank warned Wednesday that fear of the deadly Ebola virus is choking off economic activity in West Africa with potentially "catastrophic" results.

The "fear factor" is spurring even people unaffected by the disease to pull back on their work activities—in farming, mining, manufacturing or other areas—so that they are producing less, earning less and spending less.

"If the virus continues to surge in the three worst-affected countries—Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—its economic impact could grow eight-fold, dealing a potentially catastrophic blow to the already fragile states," the World Bank said.

In the bank's worst-case analysis, with only slow containment of the disease, economic growth (GDP) in Liberia next year could fall by 11.7 %, plunging the country deep into recession with a 4.9 percent contraction.

[KingM]

Some of you guys are getting pretty excited.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'S')ome of you guys are getting pretty excited.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')eminds me of the old days, when peak-oil was new. This site was filled with doom, permaculture, gun-crazies and the like. The hysteria will blow over until the next scary event.

[dohboi]

Pneumonia:

AKA "The Old Man's Friend" (That according to my world-weary 89-year-old father)

Ebola: Not known to anyone as anyone's friend, that I know of (except perhaps our local madman--Ibon )

Pneumonia and Flu E naught = under 1 over the long term, as far as I know.

Ebola E naught = over 1.5 last I saw (anything over 1 is exponential growth)

Always good to keep matters in perspective IMHO.

(One would hope that on such fora we would not have to sponsor tutorials on the meaning of exponential growth, but perhaps we do after all.)

[vox_mundi]

Um, Ok.

Then why is the semi-log plot of the evolution of Ebola death rate a straight line?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _plot..png

From where I come from the plot of exponential growth on semi-log graph gives a straight line

http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/bio ... ogrow.html

[dohboi]

That's exactly what I was trying to say, in my own convoluted, obviously-too-confusing way. Ebola is growing at an exponential rate and is lethal at least 50% of the time.

There is no other disease out there that I know of that has that profile.

Of course, every season flu shows exponential growth for a while, but it doesn't show that growth for more than a few months. As far as I know, no one has claimed that Ebola is seasonal. I was addressing ROCK's claim that we should all just calm down since, at this point, other diseases kill more people.

While we're on the issue, though, at least one disease modeler projects an upwardly curving line on a semi-log scale. Does that suggest more-than-exponential growth? http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/ ... toll-ebola



-------

Newf reported: "27% of US women fear that someone they know will contract ebola."

I wonder what portion of those actually do know someone who is living in or who recently visited East Africa (or some other contiguous area). Anyone in an academic setting is likely to have a classmate or colleague with such a profile. I know quite a few such myself, quite well. People I have meetings with regularly.

And it does not strike me as entirely irrational to be concerned the the coming Hajj might turn out to be a 'perfect' opportunity for Ebola to spread world-wide. Recall that an infected person can remain symptom-free for 21 days. So someone could show up not knowing they have the virus, become symptomatic during the ceremonies, and potentially spread it to any number of people there, people who will then go back to any number of countries all over the world. (There is also the possibility of the rapid spread of MERS for the same reason.)

I personally think that spread from either of these sources is quite unlikely (wishful thinking??), but I couldn't consider someone completely irrational for thinking so, especially when some fairly prominent people have now publicly expressed the concern that it may become airborne.

Frankly the more people (particularly authorities) who are aware, concerned and vigilant about this disease, the less likely it is that it will be able to spread. But it would be too bad if some irrational level of concern distracted people from some more immediate, more realistic threat to themselves or to their communities.

Edit to add: Ah, I see that the actual CNN report says 'they or someone in their family'--that does seem a bit irrational (although those of us with children traveling to certain locations may have some qualms).

[Newfie]

Interestingly 41% were worried about being victimized by terrorism. I have zero fear about terrorism, unless you include the TSA.

But it makes you wonder what they are really reporting or feeling. Does it mean they have felt as slight twinge of concern? Or they think abut it daily? Or they are really afraid?

[dohboi]

On terrorism, it means that they have been successfully manipulated.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')(One would hope that on such fora we would not have to sponsor tutorials on the meaning of exponential growth, but perhaps we do after all.)

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')
Ebola: Not known to anyone as anyone's friend, that I know of (except perhaps our local madman--Ibon )

[dohboi]

"we are now trying to stop the exponential growth of a virus whose presence is because we were unable to stop the exponential growth of ourselves."

Nicely put. I hope you understand I meant 'mad' in the most complimentary way!

As for myself, to borrow a phrase--I've always been crazy, but it keeps me from going insane.

And to coin a phrase--If modern industrial society doesn't drive you crazy every once in a while, it could be that there is something seriously wrong with you.

Thanks for the link. Looks neat.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')I have put my life's work and money in preserving a buffer zone to a national park to create this bridge in time until these endangered flora and fauna can once again colonize former territory once the contraction of the human population starts accelerating. In that sense ebola (wrong continent) is not my friend but rather an ally hopefully doing the same somewhere else.

[dohboi]

"devoured by the starving billions on their way down the hard side of the slope."

No matter when it happens, this will surely be a major source of future (and really, already current) mass extinction.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A')nother hundred years of BAU and there won't be any apex predators to repopulate. Worst-case scenario, most of the mesopredators will be gone, too, devoured by the starving billions on their way down the hard side of the slope.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '&')quot;we are now trying to stop the exponential growth of a virus whose presence is because we were unable to stop the exponential growth of ourselves."

Nicely put. I hope you understand I meant 'mad' in the most complimentary way!

[vox_mundi]

Ebola health workers missing in Guinea
Six-man team spreading awareness of deadly virus set upon by angry residents in remote village amid desperate shortage of health workers
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... ing-guinea
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uinea has sent officials to scour the country's hilly, forest-clad interior after a team of health workers went missing during a push to raise awareness of the outbreak of Ebola which started in the country nine months ago.

Six members of the team – three journalists and the director and two senior doctors of the regional hospital – were set upon by angry residents in the remote village of Womey, where many remain in denial about the disease, or suspicious of foreign health workers. The six have been missing since Tuesday. Officials said all six were held captive, although attempts to reach them stalled after angry residents destroyed bridges leading to the village.

[vox_mundi]

Ebola outbreak: Health team 'found dead' in Guinea
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29256443

On Thursday night, government spokesman Albert Damantang Camara said eight bodies had been found, including those of three journalists.

He said they had been recovered from the septic tank of a primary school in the village, adding that the victims had been "killed in cold blood by the villagers".

The reason for the killings is unclear, but correspondents say many people in the region distrust health officials and have refused to co-operate with authorities, fearing that a diagnosis means certain death.

Last month, riots erupted in the area of Guinea where the health team went missing after rumours that medics who were disinfecting a market were contaminating people

[Newfie]

Somewhere, in an airport maybe, I saw an add for the Marines With the tag line "Which way would you run?"

Might be a great question for all those thinking of volunteering to fight this.