[thequietkid10]

For the vast majority of my Peak Oil news and opinions, I like to go to http://www.thewatt.com. I like it because of its optimism and friendly webmaster. It's a nice change of pace from the site, www.aftertheoilcrash.com (or something along those lines)

Recently though, I read an extremely depressing article about Peak Oil. It was a piece for a college newspaper, written by one of the contributors to theWatt. Basically it said that biomass, nuclear power, synthetic fuels, even conservation, in terms of anything less then flirting with economic self destruction, is powerless in the face of Peak Oil.

He blasted the "neoclassical economists" who believe that some other, more expensive fuel will just take oils place. When I read that article, I felt as if he was saying that the impending oil crisis is hopeless. His view of Peak Oil is not uncommon.

So what did I do? I gave up for a while. I went upstairs turned on the radio, and the Gamecube. I even did something I hadn't been doing, and turned on the light while I was playing, what do I care? its not like keeping this light off is going to help anybody. [Apparently we're all ****ed anyway, regardless of what I do. So I might as well enjoy the time I have left, and remember not to have any children. I settle in for a very long game of Super Smash Brothers Melee. Even after I got bored I kept playing, I wanted to just waste my mind away, like the book Farenheight 451.

This lasted for about 30 minutes. Then I thought of a conversation in Star Wars, *spoilers for those who have been living under a rock*

It was the conversation between Obi Won's ghost and Luke, about Luke's destiny to fight Vader. Luke said that he couldn't do it. It is a valid argument. Vader is an experienced warrior and Luke is a rookie, and it didn't help that Luke had no interest in killing his father.

Obi Won replied to Luke "Then the emperor has already won." In other words, if we don't fight Peak Oil with the confidence that we can beat it, we will never beat it. Essay's like the one currently found on theWatt and other places do not boast people confidence.

Looking back he does offer ways to counter Peak Oil, something I didn't notice the first time. What he says makes sense. (Except that his sources on alternatives energies is Exxon mobile, THE most backwards, anti-global warming, anti-Peak oil, energy company in existence). He does offer solutions which are good ideas. BUT, the tone of his essay, (and mentioning things like our carrying capacity without fossil fuels is 1-3 billion people) does not make it a sell to many in the mainstream.

There is a way to mobilize the mainstream of the world against Peak Oil, even if that means economic sacrifice mentioned in the essay. Sadly too many of those who know about Peak Oil, feel that they have to crucify the American Dream, Capitalism, prosperity, and the 1950s suburban boom to do so. The 1950s was 50 years ago, we don't have a time machine to go back and change, the American Dream is engraved in every single American as a god given right, as much as what is given to us from the Consitution, capitalism is 300 years old. The industrial age is 200 years old. Blaming these factors and doing documentaries about the past is not going to solve the problem in the future (yeah I'm talking to you, producers or End of Suburbia). As Final Fantasy X fans know from Auron "dwelling in the past is futile."

Americans have big egos, we're the oldest current democracy on Earth, and we're the most powerful nation in the world. I think we have the right to be just a little proud.

It wasn't long ago that Americans were known as some of the most resourceful, toughest S.O.Bs on the planet.

If we tell these people that we have a problem, (Peak Oil), but also that with some sacrifice, we can overcome it, and maybe even usher in an energy golden age by 2050, (fusion/hydrogen). I think we're get more support then the "our children are all going to starve unless we become a third world country" argument (over exaggeration but you get the point).

Remember my fellow Peak Oilers, you get more bees with honey then vinegar, think about that next time you introduce Peak Oil to the world.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', 'R')emember my fellow Peak Oilers, you get more bees with honey than vinegar, think about that next time you introduce Peak Oil to the world.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', 'I')f we tell these people that we have a problem, (Peak Oil), but also that with some sacrifice, we can overcome it, and maybe even usher in an energy golden age by 2050, (fusion/hydrogen).

[thequietkid10]

what I'm saying is we need hope.

We need hope so that people are willing to invest there money in alternative energies.

We need hope so that people will listen to us and not allow themselves to be swallowed by deny.

We need hope so that when someone makes a conscience effort to save energy they know that what their doing isn't in vain.

It would be the greatest crime in the history of humanity, if we could beat Peak Oil if we made the effort,

but instead we decided we have no chance, make little to no effort to solve the problem, and as a result mankind falls.

and the we (the young ones like myself) have to oneday face our children, living in shacks, suffering from male nutrition, there only connection to the good life being the stories told from us.

[bart]

Yes, hope. But hope with intelligence. Not hope puffed up by delusions.

There is a real danger of investing our resources in foolish schemes like hydrogen cars and energy sources with a negative return (corn-based ethanol).

The real answers are not glamorous:
1. Meeting our needs with much less energy.
2. Reducing our numbers.

If we are able to develop new energy technologies, so much the better. But we should emphasize conservation/efficiency and population control.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', 'w')hat I'm saying is we need hope.

[LadyRuby]

Personally I think we need to shake things up a bit to get the ball rolling, and then there will be reason to hope. I'm not very proud of being an American right now, but I do have to say that Americans can come together, when they really need to, and work together to solve big problems. With the right leadership (NOT W, or anyone like him), and a real understanding of the crisis we're in, I think we can get through it. So yes, let's try to keep some optimism, but we've got to get rolling. We're living in a house of cards!

[Jack]

You speak of hope, and the good life. But what precisely is "the good life"?

It's like the phrase "The American Dream" that so many speak of, but remains ill-defined.

Is the good life having a private jet, a benz and a ferrari, along with a mansion in a gated community? That may be difficult to achieve.

If I may suggest, distill down what a good life means to you; that isn't the work of a day, or even a year. Define it, write it down, and then reconsider it carefully.

Do you need a car to have the good life? Folks in Victorian England got along happily without them. The Amish do today.

Often, we let others define what we should want, when in fact we don't want them at all. What do you want?

People will invest in alternative energy because they believe they can make a profit; if the project is viable, money will flow. But just wishing for a technology will not make it happen. Keep in mind that diverting limited funds to bad ideas will starve out better ideas. What if we spend our money on fusion, and it's a dead end? Might we not have been better off with something else?

People hope to win the lottery; but they might be wise not to plan on paying their bills by winning it.

[thequietkid10]

I think I need to make something clear. I'm not affraid of "The Second Great Depression" ok. I'm willing to make sacrfices.

If my children have food, shelter, and happiness, I'm fine with that. If that means no TV,no Internet, no Video Games, no music, no Saturday nights in the city, then that's what happens, we'll deal, and wait around (hopefully) for fusion power.

What I don't like about Peak Oil is the part about massive die off. I won't accept that fate, I'm sorry I can't. Population decline because people have less children, fine. Watching, my wife, friends and their familiy, and my family's family, constantly in morning because another loved one has died. I couldn't deal with that.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', 'W')hat I don't like about Peak Oil is the part about massive die off. I won't accept that fate, I'm sorry I can't. Population decline because people have less children, fine. Watching, my wife, friends and their familiy, and my family's family, constantly in morning because another loved one has died. I couldn't deal with that.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', '
')What I don't like about Peak Oil is the part about massive die off. I won't accept that fate, I'm sorry I can't. Population decline because people have less children, fine. Watching, my wife, friends and their familiy, and my family's family, constantly in morning because another loved one has died. I couldn't deal with that.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', ' ')Hmm? That depends on who does the dying, doesn't it? Mass starvation already exists, it just doesn't affect you and I.

If it makes you feel any better, those of us in the U.S. and Europe will probably not have the dieoff. Asia and the Middle East probably will, along with Africa. Some of South America probably will.

[aldente]

Quietkid, what if the whole process is something that neither I, nor you, nor anybody else has any control over? It is one of the primary reactions of individuals in complicated situations to state: We have to do this or that to change things... What we're facing though is of a magnitude that's beyond managability.

The actual task is to comprehend the issue and to digest it! It gives you an advantage, don't forget that! "Hope"will always be a fellow traveller, per definition.

Dive in!

[bart]

I am very suspicious of the Die-Off idea.

There is NOT one model of population behavior that all species follow. There are multiple models, multiple curves. This is basic, Ecology 101. Die-off is one possibility, but there are others. It depends on what we do, how we as a species respond

Humans are not like other biological organisms. We are unique in developing a social culture that is passed on over the generations. We are unique in our capacity to modify their environment (both for good and for ill). We and the social insects (ants, termites, bees) are unique in our complex social organizations.

Taking a concept from biology and applying it blindly to human society is intellectually bankrupt. In the early 20th century, the robber barons justified their depradations through Social Darwinism (survival of the fittest). Inevitably these misapplied biological concepts are used as justification for horrendous behavior; that's not happening on this forum that I know of. But as this concept is let loose into the wider world, it will be.

A biological concept can be suggestive, a starting point for investigation. But that's all.

If we want to talk about human societies, let's turn to people who study them -- social scientists, historians, archaeologists, anthropologists. Jared Diamon and Joseph A. Tainter come to mind. There are many others.

Jared Diamond
* The Vanishing (article about his recent book)
* Twilight at Easter

Joseph A. Tainter
* Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies
* Resource Transitions and Energy Gain: Contexts of Organization / PDF (much better format) (written with T. F. H. Allen, Amanda Little, and Thomas W. Hoekstra)

[Barbara]

Quietkid,
same boat here. I follow this PO business with only one thing in my mind: my son. I can face anything, but first of all I want my son to be alive and healthy. I don't care about anything else, as long as he'll have shelter, food and safety.
Unfortunately my husband doesn't grasp this.

I also believe we in the Western countries will be heavily hitten. I've been in the Third World, and when you can rely only on a tiny potato garden behind your hut you don't give a blink about PO or not. One third of the world doesn't even have electricity, let alone cars or green revolutions.

[shakespear1]

I have been on all major continents of the world except Australia and see the world on a "train" speeding in the same direction as the one that took off in the US.

It will be very hard to stop it. What is needed is a shock Just like the Arab Oil Embargo.

That was probable the finest wake up call that we received in the US and did not understand its implication or perhaps simply chose to forget it.

We had a chance to be on that slow train but we wanted the bullet train and here we are. We need to swallow the medicine and that is it.

In Latin America they are living the reduced energy life ( look how many people walk and take the bus in many of these countries), Europe is not as bad as the US, Eastern Block countries are speeding to become US, India doing the same, China doing the same. Thus we have a huge number of people on this fast moving train.

Nope, it will be PAIN that will slow us down. Who knows, maybe we will like it.

In 1992 I was laid off by ARCO because oil prices were low etc. I decided to go to Russia to learn Russian. I was there nearly 2 years. And do you know what I learned? I learned to live without a car. Stand in line. Eat less exotic stuff. Make my own cottage cheese. Take the bus and metro.

And I LIKED IT. It was less stressful. Admittedly I had money, the Russians did not. But I learned that I COULD LIVE ON LESS.

I came back to US and lived on LESS. Everywhere I went since then I hae practiced the same mantra. LESS IS GOOD. I don't need to change my car every year. Wardrobe every few months. Huge house etc.

It can be done but something/someone needs to show THEM how

This will not be welcome by great corporations so don't expect this LESSON to come from this quarter!!!!

[turmoil]

think about it this way. If you really cared about the future of your family, you wouldn't live in the suburbs (how's that for a mind bender). You want to save your own skin like all of us. But if we really cared, we would see that our lifestyle is unsustainable and evolve.

The powers that be are there because we put them there.

[thequietkid10]

In response to the ecology point, I would like to point out that human beings are unlike any other species on Earth, in that we can consciencly decide to have one or no children. A phenomonion that is increasingly more common in today's world. Not nearly enough to beat carrying capacity, but its better then Ben Franklin's 17 brothers and sisters.

And stupid_monkeys, with all due respect, I would like to point out that there are things we can do, to maintain a suburan lifestyle and still conserve energy. Such as car pooling, public transportation, walking, working from home, and traveling less.

[LadyRuby]

Barbara said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') follow this PO business with only one thing in my mind: my son. I can face anything, but first of all I want my son to be alive and healthy. I don't care about anything else, as long as he'll have shelter, food and safety.
Unfortunately my husband doesn't grasp this.

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thequietkid10', '.')..there are things we can do, to maintain a suburban lifestyle and still conserve energy. Such as car pooling, public transportation, walking, working from home, and traveling less.