by AgentR11 » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 13:01:26
Six/Plant, your problem is that you think it matters what comes out of the mouth of Putin, Poroshinko, or Obama.
It doesn't in the slightest. Neither were there at the moment of launch. All have incentive to spin the event in a particular way regardless of whether the facts support them or not.
My explanation, is not based upon what they said, but what is most physically probable.
Here are facts:
There are BUK systems in E. Ukraine that are not being operated by Kiev forces.
Forces that oppose Kiev in E. Ukraine have limited air defense information systems.
Forces that oppose Kiev in E. Ukraine are engaged in surface to air combat.
Kiev forces are flying both heavy transports and ground attack aircraft in E. Ukraine.
MH17 flew West to East, through the opposition forces combat theater, within range of BUK systems.
Shooting down MH17 is a waste of an expensive, limited quantity munition for the opposition forces.
Shooting down MH17 provides no tactical benefit for Kiev or Moscow.
Kiev and Moscow have sufficient air defense information systems to properly identify and track MH17.
From these facts, indisputable facts, I come to the conclusion that opposition forces in E. Ukraine misidentified MH17 from their truck mounted system; thought they had a Ukraine transport on their screen, and fired the SAM, killing MH17 as collateral damage.
This doesn't make it a war crime, nor a murder. The appropriate remedy, as we have paid before, as Ukraine has paid before, as others have paid, is an apology and financial compensation once the facts and reports are finalized.
Now, post event, it serves Moscow's interests to string this thing along for as long as possible; always keep your eye on the prize. Every day added of complexity and intrigue, is one more day of Russian soldiers at Armyansk digging holes and laying mines, one more day of trucks and munitions coming across the ferry at Kerch.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.