by Sixstrings » Tue 22 Jul 2014, 00:55:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'D')isagree on that point completely. There are no sanctions the US or EU can write on paper that exceed the value of the Crimea to Russia. Now, if you disagree with that numerically, we can't come to an agreed point. There basically is not a "too harsh" as long as we're talking sanctions vs Crimea.
Well, they can't build a bridge to Crimea and pour $100 billion into that place or whatever it winds up costing, if their economy has tanked and is in shambles and under heavy sanction.
Now can they?
Russia isn't Iraq or Iran. Russia is a moderately advanced economy and has publicly traded corporations and a stock market. Which just tanked again after Obama's latest announcement of new sanctions. (before the plane shot down)
Truly seriously sanctions could cause depression in Russia, totally destabilize the place, and ultimately would cause a coup or see another president elected or Putin forced to the table.
My position is that if the issue is protecting Ukraine, then just protect Ukraine and station troops and get the air force doing patrols with a no fly zone.
Truly serious sanctions are what actually starts a war, some troops in Ukraine would deal with the issue headon and not lead to war.WWII came out of the WWI armistice terms (sanctions).
Iraq sanctions led to war, eventually.
We don't want war to Russia, we just want to block Russian expansion -- if a Ukraine wants us there, then let's get our troops in first and checkmate Russia. Forget the sanctions.
Sanctions are actually riskier.
I do wonder what will happen, if Obama really ratchets them up. I posted his executive order back when he issued it. It's very broad. Then that was passed into law by Congress.
There's a lot that can be done sanctions wise -- Putin alone has billions offshore, that can be frozen. All those oligarchs' accounts can be frozen. Agent, that would cause a coup in Russia. Or war.
We don't really want either, just to protect Ukraine, so use the military for a military problem -- these sanctions are a road to war / coup / destabilizing Russia.