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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

PO suppression

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Why oh why do very few people know about PO?

The PO message has been suppressed due to greed
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The PO message has been suppressed due to mis-understanding and ignorance
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Total votes : 66

Unread postby turmoil » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 08:27:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('agni', 'T')he world produces more than enough to feed everyone right now.


thats only because of cheap energy and labor.

Here's a blog about it

Where is the Hubbert2005 info?

Great post cube. The 'American Dream', maybe even the human dream :shock: is invincibility not a suburban lifestyle.
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Unread postby jimmydean » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 08:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[')b]a belief of invincibility

He said, "That's history. Things like that doesn't happen anymore."



I think that sums up what a lot of people think.

Either people just don't believe something like PO can happen (like the quote above) and the rest just choose to ignore the bad news even though they understand the concepts.
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Unread postby MaterialExcess » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 11:37:38

PO is suppressed because of gutless politicians and ignorant masses of people. Any politician with any significant power is well aware of PO by now. Just acknowleding PO and beginning to take proactive measures would result in a serious hit to the economy though. The ignorant masses are not going to vote for someone who hurts their economy so the politicians are slaves to ignorance.
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Unread postby khebab » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 11:45:46

Since the 80s, economic news are very stock market centered consequently they are very very shor term (daily basis) and appear completely nevrotic when looked on a several day period. PO being a long term issue, mass media are unable to catch the short-span public attention. PO is discussed today more than ever but if prices crash down tomorrow toward $40 it will be discarded and classified as an exotic phony theory (like Y2K).
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Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 17:04:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats only because of cheap energy and labor.

Well energy will be cheap for thousands of years at least. The only thing thats due to get a little more expensive is transportation fuel.
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Unread postby ubercrap » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 17:19:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats only because of cheap energy and labor.

Well energy will be cheap for thousands of years at least. The only thing thats due to get a little more expensive is transportation fuel.


Well, that's pretty goddamn serious, as the whole modern world is based on transporting people and stuff long distances very quickly and cheaply.
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Unread postby RG73 » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 19:07:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hats only because of cheap energy and labor.

Well energy will be cheap for thousands of years at least. The only thing thats due to get a little more expensive is transportation fuel.


How do you figure energy will be cheap since nearly any alternative energy source will require fossil fuels to build the infrastructure?

Agricultural labor is cheap in large part because it is relatively cheap to import labor into the states. People are going to be less inclined to pay smugglers to get them over the border when smuggling costs rise dramatically due to increases in fuel price.

Agriculture requires substantial amounts of natural gas to make fertilizers. Natural gas is in short supply in the US. Either we have to import vast amounts of LNG from other continents (very expensive) or import vast amounts of fertilizers from places with natural gas (very expensive). Since a large number of fertilizer manufacturers have already left North America due to rising natural gas costs, one can only assume that agricultural costs will rise accordingly.

Agriculture requires phosphorus, again, something in short supply (inside of a hundred years from currently known deposits).

Agriculture requires water. This is in short supply actually. Aquifer depletion in the West and Midwest. Glaciers and snow pack are melting rapidly due to climate change, hence less water is slowly released or even available for farming. The Western US also appears to be at the beginning of a cyclical drought that could last centuries (according to geological records), exacerbated by global climate change. Costs go up as water becomes scarce.

Topsoil loss. Costs go up.

You have to buy your genetically engineered crops from Monsanto--more expenses.

Agriculture needs to be shipped great distances in the US. Rising fuel costs--rising transportation costs, food costs go up.

And these things aren't just going to make prices go up. They're going to make it less economical to farm on a commercial scale. So we'll lose more food. They're going to make it more difficult to farm--no water, less arable land. No phosphorus, no natural gas, no fertilizer. Lower yields.

So even if energy were to remain cheap--which it won't, and not many people actually believe it will--we'll have less food, more expensive food, and more mouths to feed (until people start dying off).
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Unread postby Budmeister » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 20:30:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'F')or me, this poll has not enough options, and too many assumptions.


Agreed. One other option could have been that people simply don't want to know. No one wants to hear bad news or to learn that their life as they knew it is coming to an end.


Boy, you hit the nail on the head with that one. Went and got a hair-cut earlier this evening. The barber/stylist/lady who cuts my hair, we have talked about PO before.

me: "Have you went and checked out the LATOC website yet?"

her: "Uh, no."

me: "Why not?"

her: "Well, I really don't want to know if something bads gonna happen."

me: "Would you want to know if a tornado was coming at you?"

her: "Yes!"

me: "Why?"

her: "Because a tornado can kill you!"

8O gotta love her. The inability to accept that this is real and coming alot faster then anybody believes, is whats gonna be our undoing.
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Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 20:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you figure energy will be cheap since nearly any alternative energy source will require fossil fuels to build the infrastructure?


Because it doesnt require fossil fuel. Most construction equipment can just as easily be electrically powered, and fuel costs for construction aren't anywhere near the dominating cost in construction.

As for farming, every component of agriculture can be produced with energy, which I've illustrated we've got thousands of years (at the very least) of in nuclear fuel.
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Unread postby ubercrap » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 21:02:40

Well, a tornado you can try to get out of the path of or pick a place that is somewhat safe to be if it hits you, but with peak oil, virtually anything could happen anywhere and it isn't obvious where one should go.
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Unread postby chuck6877 » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 21:12:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')
He said, "That's history. Things like that doesn't happen anymore."

*smacks forehead* Sometimes I just have trouble getting thru to my old man. There's no point in even entertaining the thought of introducing PO to him.


Cube,
That story had me laughing pretty hard. Sounds like me with my wife, friends, dad, mom, step-dad, step-mom, etc!!!

I've tried to explain that the oil prices are going to go up and it could hurt the economy, etc. I never get TOO doomsdayish.
They are like:

"SO WHAT!?"
"Europeans pay like $5.00 for their gas!"
"It's not going to be a big deal"
"We'll invent our way out"
"We have the Alaska Wildlife thingy, there's plenty"
"Canadian Oil sands"
"They were saying this back in th 70's, Saying the world was going to end!!"
"Didn't Bush say something about fuel on the news the other day about fuel from soybeans or something? That will save us"
"Americans are very resilient. We'll find a way. Now shut up"
"Y2K!"<---Hear this one a lot, the crying wolf syndrome
"You worry too much. Don't worry about things like that Chuck! You're going to stress yourself out. We're worried about you. Things are gonna be just fine."<--From Mom and Dad
"Chuck, please stop talking about the oil thing. Please stop, or I'm gonna want you to go to a psychologist"<---WIFE!!

I've only known about peak oil about a month. I don't even talk about it much. I thought people would be receptive to listen, read the websites I recommended etc. Hell, no.

People just want to BURY THEIR HEADS IN THE SAND, and deny till the day they die. Things are going to be OK :)

I told my newly retired Dad, that he might lose his money in the stock market and to get energy and precious metal mutual funds.
His response, "I'll get a part-time job. Life's gonna go on."

I did get mad once and say we're probably going to have something like the Great Depression. So their response was:
"We survived the Great Depression didn't we?"
*smacks forehead*

I'm a pilot. I introduce to my copilots printed-out versions of the new associated press article and another very informative article at www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

This actually works pretty well.
Just letting them read read those two articles, kind of makes it more real to them. A couple have shown interest and asked for websites and wanted to look into it just a little more.
A majority though still think "We'll invent our way out and I can tell they don't want to talk about it any more."

I wish I would have done this with my parents. I don't think they would have read them though. They're pretty close-minded. People immediately don't want to even hear it. They just want to talk about that new movie thats out, so I talk about the new movie and shut my pie hole.


Oh it's frustrating, having this knowledge and not having anyone care.

Chuck
Last edited by chuck6877 on Mon 20 Jun 2005, 21:22:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby ubercrap » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 21:21:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you figure energy will be cheap since nearly any alternative energy source will require fossil fuels to build the infrastructure?


Because it doesnt require fossil fuel. Most construction equipment can just as easily be electrically powered, and fuel costs for construction aren't anywhere near the dominating cost in construction.

As for farming, every component of agriculture can be produced with energy, which I've illustrated we've got thousands of years (at the very least) of in nuclear fuel.


I think the main argument surrounding peak oil is question of will we be able to transform the entire layout of communities in this country, transform agriculture, build craploads of nuclear powerplants, build a new electric grid, new infrastructure, buy all new vehicles, just when the country is hit hardest economically? Apparently, we are doing virtually nothing ahead of time collectively, so it seems people are only going to act when peak oil is spotted in the "rearview mirror" as some have described it. We just might be able to do it, who the hell knows, but I don't sure don't see it as a sure thing from the perspective of this day and age. If we had started 30 years ago when we should have, sure, I think there was time. There is absolutely no evidence for an "everything will be dandy" type scenario now (even if there is the slim chance it will happen), while the "no damn way we will be rebuilding the country just as we are crumbling economically from high oil prices" scenario sounds relatively plausible. Only time will tell.
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Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 01:15:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is absolutely no evidence for an "everything will be dandy" type scenario now (even if there is the slim chance it will happen), while the "no damn way we will be rebuilding the country just as we are crumbling economically from high oil prices" scenario sounds relatively plausible. Only time will tell.


I find economic collapse implausible, but even if it were to happen: What else would people do besides rebuild the country? Gang wars? Another communist revolution? People will want jobs and industries that will do well are those related to realigning infrastructure.
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Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 04:11:19

Food and water will be higher on the list of priorities than jobs I think.
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Unread postby Doly » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 04:17:21

In our current economic system, you need a job to get food.
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Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 04:24:58

yes, I'm aware of that. That's not much good though if it doesn't remain in it's "current" state.
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Unread postby RG73 » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 13:47:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'B')ecause it doesnt require fossil fuel. Most construction equipment can just as easily be electrically powered, and fuel costs for construction aren't anywhere near the dominating cost in construction.


Ok, so you can make steel with electricity? You can build roads with electricity? Make the ashpalt from electricity too? You can make tires with electricity? You can build a nuclear power plant with electrical construction equipment (which doesn't exist)? You can mine the metals needed for your electric batteries with electricity?

I mean I'll buy that you can power things with electric power--but to even get to that point you need to build the infrastructure (since we don't have electric powered machines, or very many of them) with oil power. And even then, the raw materials--steel, asphalt, rubber, plastic, metals--these cannot be made with electricity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for farming, every component of agriculture can be produced with energy


Not even close. You cannot make fertilizer with "energy". You cannot make pesticides with "energy". You cannot make topsoil with "energy". You can get water with energy via desalinzation, but it is expensive, and you'll have to engineer massive irrigation projects from the desalinzation plants on the ocean to the interior of the country.

So no, you can't manufacture agriculture from a nuclear power plant. It requires raw materials--phosphorus, natural gas, oil, water, topsoil--which are essentially non-renewable (since a lot of our agriculture is done with aquifers that refill on geological timescales, they are essentially non-renewable).

You'll have electricity, but no food on the table. Great.
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Reason for suppression

Unread postby Novus » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 18:56:24

I blame the cry wolf syndrome for most people not taking Peak Oil Seriously.

Noted scientists such as Paul Ehrlich made overshoot predictions in the 60s and 70s that mass stavation was imminent. He predicted that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1990. This was actually taken seriously and many people beleived. In retropect when it didn't come true people today just don't want to hear that again.

Also the artificial oil crisis of the 1970s when it passed caused the perseption that the world's oil problems were over. Freting over oil became little more then a been there done that thing.

It could also just be human nature. Plato's allegory of Atlantis was writen to show the arrogance and foolishness of man. The people of Atlantis were given plenty of warning by the gods but they choose to ignore it. The greeks even had a word for this: Hubris. Our culture may have advanced 2300 years but human nature has not.

I have been aware of Peak Oil for many years now. There was no sudden revelation that changed my world view. It just kind of happened. People when they are ready to accept the truth will come. In the legend of Atlantis a few did wake up and survived to tell the tale. I number myself with the survivors.
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Unread postby SchroedingersCat » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 20:28:12

Novus wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')oted scientists such as Paul Ehrlich made overshoot predictions in the 60s and 70s that mass stavation was imminent. He predicted that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1990. This was actually taken seriously and many people beleived. In retropect when it didn't come true people today just don't want to hear that again.


Any idea how many people in the US go to bed hungry every night? Starvation doesn't have to mean no food, it can mean not enough food. It's very possible that 65 million people died in that decade because they didn't have enough to eat. Hunger in America is suppressed. Poverty in America is suppressed. Anything that might make consumers uncomfortable and reduce their spending on useless crap is suppressed.

Of course peak oil is being suppressed. It's bad for business.
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Unread postby OilyMon » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 02:02:42

I got onto the elevator at work today and one of my colleagues was saying, ".. it's really frustrating! It's far too expensive! They should really do something about it!"

When she saw that I was listening she told me, "We're talking about gas prices. They're too high, and it getting more expensive." To which I replied, "And they're not going to stop going up either." She completely agreed. I then asked her if she knew why gas prices were going up. To which she replied, "No. Why are they?" I told her I didn't want to get into it (enough people at work think I'm a crack because of this (and of course that "loss of control" incident a few months ago!) already, and I didn't want to add to that figure.

She pressed me, "Why is gas getting more expensive?", and when I mentioned supply and demand she immediately asked it I was a business or economics major, with a slightly denegrating tone. I said, "no, I just have an interest", and went on to tell her and her friend that supply and demand were coming closer together, and that eventually they would cross. The response I got to this as they tried to think about the implications, was that supply and demand would achieve a state of equilibrium. I decided not to press this any further and went out for a smoke.

I think this is indicative of how most people think about oil. They hear the word oil and think, "ohhh crap, business is boring and I'm not going to pay attention. I'd rather talk about (as mentioned above) the latest movie/punk rock band/ MTV VJ, etc. (The last two being examples drawn from personal experience) People for the most part are ignorant about this issue. My colleague is very friendly and intelligent, but just had no clue as to what the potential causes of our recent personal economic strain are, in terms of price at the pump.

On a side note, I was re-watching "The End Of Suburbia" last night, and I noticed that the price at one of the gas stations they filmed was (I'd better check this before I write! Hold on....) 69.9cents a liter. In Toronto where this movie was partly filmed, gas can now be found, during the most recent spikes, at 92 cents and higher. Just though that the dating of the movie based on the gas price was interesting!
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