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Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Timo » Mon 09 Jun 2014, 16:20:35

Ibon, very well said. That whole notion really makes you think and wonder what the word "intelligence" really means. And yes! Dolphins are already very self aware. They mourn their dead, and even ceremoneously acnknowldedge the death of a family or pod member. Dolphins even have unique languages and individual names that are taught to each other through generations. Too bad their living in an environment that we're destroying. We're so smart we're killing off the entire planet.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby dsula » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 07:27:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')these creatures have no incentive to use technology..


I assume they also get sick. And if they are aware of life and death I also assume they would try to heal and extend their lives. And as such I assume they would also use technology if they could, in the end running into the same problems we're running into. Overpopulation - technology fix - even more overpopulation - even more technology fix --- BOOM.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 08:38:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')these creatures have no incentive to use technology..


I assume they also get sick. And if they are aware of life and death I also assume they would try to heal and extend their lives. And as such I assume they would also use technology if they could, in the end running into the same problems we're running into. Overpopulation - technology fix - even more overpopulation - even more technology fix --- BOOM.

The author Larry Niven wrote a story and mentioned in several others about a company that builds prothetic 'hands' for Dohins to use once the UN declares them sentient beings and prosecutes people who kill Dolphins for murder. Kind of an interesting thought problem, what would a sentient Dolphin do if it did have arms and hands to manipulate its environs easily?
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 08:56:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')these creatures have no incentive to use technology..


I assume they also get sick. And if they are aware of life and death I also assume they would try to heal and extend their lives. And as such I assume they would also use technology if they could, in the end running into the same problems we're running into. Overpopulation - technology fix - even more overpopulation - even more technology fix --- BOOM.


Without an apposing thumb though their technology would be akin to Chinese medicine where they would research and find marine botanicals that would cure their diseases. Without the ability to manipulate your environment with tools there is only so far you can take technology. Do not underestimate the apposing thumb. It didn't evolve specifically for tool use but probably for holding on to branches when we were arboreal, which made its adaptability for tool use kind of accidental. There is also the belief that being sentient and self aware was also an accidental byproduct of our evolving intelligence. Being a sentient mortal leads you to all kinds of trouble as you are suggesting. Your hypothesis being that once a creature becomes sentient, self aware of their mortality and intelligent enough to combat their predators, they will inevitably go out of balance with their environment and over populate. Of course you are basing this inevitability on the only game around you have as a reference which is human beings.

To test your hypothesis of this inevitability we need a larger sample size of tool using sentient species. Too bad we don't have that.

And sentient species staying within carrying capacity in harmony with their environments in other parts of the universe are not the ones broadcasting radio waves.

So Fermi's paradox in the meantime remains a mystery.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby dsula » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 09:12:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')To test your hypothesis of this inevitability we need a larger sample size of tool using sentient species. Too bad we don't have that.

I don't think so. Every living thing on this planet tries to live for as long as possible, fill as much space as possible, multiply as much as possible and consume as much as possible. Why should dolphins be different?
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Timo » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 09:19:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')these creatures have no incentive to use technology..


I assume they also get sick. And if they are aware of life and death I also assume they would try to heal and extend their lives. And as such I assume they would also use technology if they could, in the end running into the same problems we're running into. Overpopulation - technology fix - even more overpopulation - even more technology fix --- BOOM.

The author Larry Niven wrote a story and mentioned in several others about a company that builds prothetic 'hands' for Dohins to use once the UN declares them sentient beings and prosecutes people who kill Dolphins for murder. Kind of an interesting thought problem, what would a sentient Dolphin do if it did have arms and hands to manipulate its environs easily?

My guess is that it would shed those hands, PDQ! It is an interesting question, though. Human thoughts are vastly different from the rest of the living populations. What would humans do if we were equipped to naturally breath under water? My guess (again) would be that we would pretty quickly figure out how to apply that newfound attribute to nefarious and military uses. It's our nature to apply any human or technological ability to gain congtrol of others, or to lessen the control of others. We are a combative species. Not alone, in that respect, but it's what we live for. It's how our brains have evolved. Tools and technology only encourages and reinforces that combative instinct.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 09:27:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')To test your hypothesis of this inevitability we need a larger sample size of tool using sentient species. Too bad we don't have that.

I don't think so. Every living thing on this planet tries to live for as long as possible, fill as much space as possible, multiply as much as possible and consume as much as possible. Why should dolphins be different?


I didn't say they were different and I do not disagree with the prime directive of all life to survive. Technology requires both intelligence and the ability to apply that intelligence by manipulating your environment. In the case of humans we have our apposing thumb and we evolved in complex terrestrial ecosystems where tool use brought us enormous benefits.

A dolphin is in no way "special" in having some enlightened knowledge about staying within carrying capacity, it is an intelligent species that does not have the physical morphology to manipulate its environment and the ecosystem it lives in is not creating any selective pressures toward tool use. It's evolution going forward could continue for millions of years, its intelligence could evolve further and it could remain for the remainder of its existence as a species without using tools and stay within carrying capacity. There could be many other sentient species in the universe that are similar and not broadcasting themselves.

Human intelligence that has moved us toward disrupting so radically our environment has unique components that are present in addition to our sentient intelligence; specifically an apposing thumb and ecosystems that selected for tool use. That was my main point.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 09:32:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', ' ')What would humans do if we were equipped to naturally breath under water? My guess (again) would be that we would pretty quickly figure out how to apply that newfound attribute to nefarious and military uses. It's our nature to apply any human or technological ability to gain congtrol of others, or to lessen the control of others. We are a combative species. Not alone, in that respect, but it's what we live for. It's how our brains have evolved. Tools and technology only encourages and reinforces that combative instinct.


I cannot recommend enough a book for you to read Timo if this line of inquiry is fascinating for you

http://www.amazon.com/Our-Inner-Ape-Pri ... 1594481962

Our Inner Ape: A Leading Primatologist Explains Why We Are Who We Are
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 09:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')And sentient species staying within carrying capacity in harmony with their environments in other parts of the universe are not the ones broadcasting radio waves.

So Fermi's paradox in the meantime remains a mystery.


I don't think you can make this claim with certainty Ibon. We could live well within our carrying capacity and still have a technology capable of broadcasting signals far and wide. Take Earth circa 1920, we were around a reasonable population and we had Shortwave SW and Amplitude Modulation AM broadcast radio. It is not a Huge leap from there to Frequency Modulation FM broadcast radio that can escape the atmosphere and get into space. Most radio stations in the USA and Canada are 5,000 Watts aka 5 kW, with an occasional " powerhouse" 50,000 Watts aka 50 kW station like WJR or WLW that have been around since the 1930's. We know from satellites that some frequencies easily escape the atmosphere, and any deliberate broadcast using those frequencies could easily be sent to nearby stars, and if radio users lived around any of the stars less than 25 light years away wewould already be listening in on their broadcasts in those frequencies.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 10:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')And sentient species staying within carrying capacity in harmony with their environments in other parts of the universe are not the ones broadcasting radio waves.

So Fermi's paradox in the meantime remains a mystery.


I don't think you can make this claim with certainty Ibon.


I didn't say anything with certainty. I said the paradox remains what it is, a mystery. An open question. Nothing certain.

We are playing in a thought experiment.......my days of making claims of certainty are long past. I move forward utterly perplexed by existence :)
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 10:28:11

Another point of view

http://2012thebigpicture.wordpress.com/ ... rup-video/

Lecture from former US Military Bob Dean on the Extraterrestrial Coverup [video]

Are we bored enough yet with reality?
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Timo » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 10:36:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A')re we bored enough yet with reality?

What??? My fantasy world is really, REALLY exciting! I gave up reality several years ago (for Lent 8) ). Last year i gave up thinking. This year, i gave up caring. Ignorance is truly bliss.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 11:38:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A')re we bored enough yet with reality?

What??? My fantasy world is really, REALLY exciting! I gave up reality several years ago (for Lent 8) ). Last year i gave up thinking. This year, i gave up caring. Ignorance is truly bliss.


My wife got me a great Mythbuster T-Shirt of Adam saying $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') Reject Your Reality And Substitute My Own!
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby joewp » Mon 30 Jun 2014, 15:48:18

It has always seemed to me that the Drake Equation (on which the Fermi Paradox is based) was really, really optimistic. While there might be billions of Earth-like planets around, the chances of an intelligent, self-aware creature with the necessary combination of characteristics to be even able to conceive of radio waves or interstellar travel is probably vanishingly small to begin with. And based on our own example, the time period that transmitting radio waves is active in any civilization would be of a relative short duration (under 10,000 years) and when we're talking about hundreds or millions or billions of light years, the chance that those years would coincide with any other civilization's period of ability to receive them is even smaller. Heck, a civilization 10,000ly away could have been broadcasting their version of the Lucy Show for a thousand years and they suffered their form of Armageddon (nulcear, volcanic, extra-terrestrial, whatever) 10,000 years and six months before our first receiver was operational.

Finding evidence of another species of 'intelligent' life always seemed to me like two needles in a field of huge haystacks trying to find each other. And I think Drake and Fermi were being a little species-centric thinking that intelligence is only defined by the ability to send radio waves. Whales communicate over thousands of miles and they don't need radio waves.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 30 Jun 2014, 16:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A')nd I think Drake and Fermi were being a little species-centric thinking that intelligence is only defined by the ability to send radio waves.


To be fair, the only thing there is *any* chance of detecting is radio transmissions, and even those probably in only a modest section of the spectrum. Tech civilization could easily get to the point where virtually all radio transmission happens in the multi-ghz range; great for high bandwidth, short range and/or line of site, great if you have high transmitter density linked with physical fiberoptic (or better); absolutely horrible if you want to transmit unaimed, long distance, through humid air in a sea of localized interference.

Just think of our little phones, in just a few short years, we've gone from tapping out beep-beep-beep over powerful, long range, unaimed broadcasting antenna, to something that can receive and display an HD movie or transmit a long video-phone conversation on a battery measured in milliamp hours. The trend is obvious, the window for finding high power, unaimed, rf broadcasts isn't thousands of years... its decades. And its the physics of power, uniform throughout the universe, that make it so. Imagine how tiny a 5-10 decade long window is, over the observational life of a planet, or even the observational life of a planet with a known intelligent species well suited to making broadcasts. We've been around as us (basically) for 250,000 years or something, we've broadcasted high power, unaimed, for about 6 decades, and are now rapidly shifting to different technologies because the physics behind them provide so much more capability on so much less power. If a species out there starts observing the Earth in its time stream 4 decades from now, they probably won't find piddle for recognizable RF, unless we just feel generous and put a beep-beep beacon out in a solar orbit or something because we want to be friendly. (dumb idea, but it'd work).

We could stare right at a high tech, developed, large, industrial civilization, with billions of inhabitants, and see nothing.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby joewp » Wed 02 Jul 2014, 23:52:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A')nd I think Drake and Fermi were being a little species-centric thinking that intelligence is only defined by the ability to send radio waves.


To be fair, the only thing there is *any* chance of detecting is radio transmissions, and even those probably in only a modest section of the spectrum. Tech civilization could easily get to the point where virtually all radio transmission happens in the multi-ghz range; great for high bandwidth, short range and/or line of site, great if you have high transmitter density linked with physical fiberoptic (or better); absolutely horrible if you want to transmit unaimed, long distance, through humid air in a sea of localized interference.


Well, species and era centric too, then. But I also think we could be mistaken about even species capable of low power long distance radio. They could be very shy and skittish, as most species on Earth are. They could have realized that their broadcasts would travel light-years and developed technology to block them or something.

Not that I'm saying there aren't intelligent species on other planets. Heck, I think dolphins, dogs[*] and elephants are very close to our "intelligence level" and are right here, but lacked opposable thumbs, or even the desire to build the Parthenon or an RCA broadcast tower. There could be huge gelatinous masses of nerve cells that can advanced calculus in their "heads" on a planet less than 10ly away, but we'd never know.

[*]If you don't think dogs are intelligent, the next time you're buying/making food to serve them or cleaning up their poop, ask yourself who's really the smart one in this relationship. :-D
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 03 Jul 2014, 01:45:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'A')nd its the physics of power, uniform throughout the universe, that make it so.
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Re: Fermi's Paradox and why SETI is shutting down

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 03 Jul 2014, 01:57:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A') dolphin is in no way "special" in having some enlightened knowledge about staying within carrying capacity, it is an intelligent species that does not have the physical morphology to manipulate its environment and the ecosystem it lives in is not creating any selective pressures toward tool use. It's evolution going forward could continue for millions of years, its intelligence could evolve further and it could remain for the remainder of its existence as a species without using tools and stay within carrying capacity. There could be many other sentient species in the universe that are similar and not broadcasting themselves.

Human intelligence that has moved us toward disrupting so radically our environment has unique components that are present in addition to our sentient intelligence; specifically an apposing thumb and ecosystems that selected for tool use. That was my main point.
One thing I have not seen discussed, I think that for life to survive for billions of years a planet would need to have oceans to stabilize the climate.

But in order to have metals and electronics technology you would also need land (above water). This requires plate tectonics, otherwise you would just have a world wide ocean.

So you need a factor in the Drake equation to estimate how likely is plate tectonics.
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