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Making vs Serving

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Narz » Tue 29 Apr 2014, 17:21:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I')t used to take a computer the size of a bunkbed all sorts of energy to calculate simple addition, now a computer can do a million calculations a second on less energy than a lightbulb.


And now there are several billion computers out there consuming electricity, but doing important stuff like Angry Birds.

And hosting dinosaur avatar pics. 8)
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Pops » Tue 29 Apr 2014, 17:38:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I')'m still confused as to why a service economy is so lamentable.

I'm pretty sure I didn't say it was but regardless that is not the point, rather, somehow things of value must be created - food, shelter, clothes, etc and increasingly that is done via cheap energy.

And when cheap fossil energy is gone something will have to take it's place.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o we really want to go back to the era of slaving away in factories.

You keep coming back to this as if you really think I would prefer to work in a factory 12 hours instead of sitting here tappin and chasing a mouse around once in a while and listening to Sam Bush. LOL

Get the idea out of your head that what I'm saying is somehow my misanthropic dream of spiteing the evil technologists.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut to say it's definitely gonna be the future & soon no one will have time for anything but making sh!t... well, ok, it's a prediction, like 99% of those on peakoil.com I suspect it will be wrong.

I'm making an observation:
FFs now provide most "labor" to grow and make stuff
That enables us to consume third tier services as if we each employed dozens of slaves
Since FFs are finite, the "labor" force will disappear if no equal replacement(s) are found.

Then . . .
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Narz » Tue 29 Apr 2014, 18:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I')'m still confused as to why a service economy is so lamentable.

I'm pretty sure I didn't say it was but regardless that is not the point, rather, somehow things of value must be created - food, shelter, clothes, etc and increasingly that is done via cheap energy.

And when cheap fossil energy is gone something will have to take it's place.

Well right now we make all the essentials with about 1% of our energy. So I'm not so worried yet. If we have to increase the amount of farmers & manufacturing up to 5%, so be it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')et the idea out of your head that what I'm saying is somehow my misanthropic dream of spiteing the evil technologists.

ok

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m making an observation:
FFs now provide most "labor" to grow and make stuff
That enables us to consume third tier services as if we each employed dozens of slaves
Since FFs are finite, the "labor" force will disappear if no equal replacement(s) are found.

Then . . .

Well, if we run out with no backup plan we're screwed. There's a long way to go before the bottom though.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Tue 29 Apr 2014, 18:46:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'P')art of the service sector is your basic lawn/landscaping or pool service.
This type of work is indeed slowly replaced over time technologically by more efficient machines powered by Energy Scabs.

But part of the service sector is also professional services like engineering firms. As more and more regulations to comply with crop up, and more extreme design and build projects are necessary, this drives both technology and services.

Complexity collapses eventually, I 'magine.


Being deeply involved in the engineering of design/build services for the past few years I observe the system has become utterly inane. We engineers have, for the most part, lost touch with the physical world, we are being driven by idiotic bureaucracy, imposed from the client, the manufacturer, and the contractor alike.

Boston's Big Dig is often held up as an bad example, but that is really only typical.

Regulations are indeed partly to blame, but I find it more to be from our own inability to do simple management. We have self imposed processes and procedures, implemented into fix some perceived problem, which ultimately just add complexity and their own set of new problems.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Loki » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 01:21:45

Newfie, what role does the insurance industry play in adding unnecessary complexity to your field?

Re. the OP, the "service" industry is such a broad category as to be almost meaningless. Just one example, accountants count as service industry, but without them there would be almost no mining, farming, manufacturing, etc.

That said, I do agree with Pops' point about energy being the driving force behind the growth of the service employment, and more broadly, hyperspecialization.

Some "services" are worse than others. One of the more pernicious trends in the US economy in recent decades is financialization, which accounts for more and more of our GDP.

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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby sunweb » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 06:05:08

Pops - I salute your continued wisdom. Thanks.
You might even call them Energy Scabs because they broke the back of the workers by undercutting them so completely the workers could not compete. Energy slaves gave a 100:1 energy return on investment! I don't know the return that a human slave provides even on starvation rations but I'm thinking it isn't nearly that good.

Energy scabs took the place of not only the 40% who were the farming and fishing ag "makers" in the 19th century, they took the place of a good portion of the other 40% who became the manufacturing/extracting makers by the mid-twentieth century.

So the upshot is the whole hand-wringing bit about the loss of the "middle class" and inequality and falling worker participation amounts to what? Not luddism; luddites hate technology because it eliminates the need for the skilled worker permanently. But no matter how many times we stoop and grovel at the totem of technology it isn't tech that has made more and more of us dishwashers. It is the Energy Scabs that replaced us through brute force.

Take away the brute force of that virtually free workforce and watch the technology temple come crashing down.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 07:59:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ewfie, what role does the insurance industry play in adding unnecessary complexity to your field?


For the stuff I'm talking about, virtually nill.

I was trying to focus my comments on those things that exist within the free market economy, that are ostensibly within control of the corporations.

In my work insurance has a relatively small effect.

Depending on the exact market and funding source requirement the REGULATORY requirements can be negligible to the majority of the job.

But over the past few years I have had more opportunity to work in a lightly regulated arena. That is when you can really start to see the effects of corporate ....... Gezz I struggling for a word. It's not malfeasance. It's more like confusion or ossification. Processes or mandates get put into place, but they are ineffective, or poorly run, and return no value. But they never get reviewed and relieved.

Perhaps an example.

I used to be able to run a project with myself and a good secretary using a spread sheet or simple database. Good size projects. We could handle the document control and correspondence logs just fine. But now we have Document Control Specialist, 3 & 4 on a job. They have specialized software to handle the control. They can't manage the software, that's done by a central group or third party, and you need a charge number to get programmers to adjust a feature. So the Doc Specialist are focusing on the software, the PM's have lost control, and the whole expensive process goes to hell. Repeat for various other processes and projects become self perpetuating behemoths where little actually happens.

While this is bad, if I were free to talk, I could describe one multibillion dollar projects, initiated by regulation for good hearted reasons, employing hundreds of engineers and administrators, which has a high likelihood of failure. Even if they get it working it is unlikely to produce meaningfull results. I take that back, I can think of two.

What is the relevance to the OP?

We like to think of engineering as adding value. But, from the inside looking out with an honest assessment, the actual contribution is often very small, and highly inefficient. It is a largely a service industry, the actual engineering is small compared to support an ancillary staff. Such inefficiency did not exist in earlier times. It could not exist now without the gross excess input of fossil fuels.

Perhaps not all segments are like this, but this is what I see.

Perhaps this is inevitable. You guys ever hear of the Pareto Principal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

BTW, We have a joke in the office that our projects are workfare for engineers, we are all sucking at the government teat. So I'm not the only one to see this.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Pops » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 10:48:25

Here is a long article at FEASTA which may or may not be along the lines of this thread, I couldn't get through the whole thing but maybe someone can give the Readers Digest version.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Serial_Worrier » Wed 30 Apr 2014, 12:47:03

When TEOTWAWKI hits, basket weaving will be in great demand again!
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Thu 01 May 2014, 21:44:37

Pops,

I read through the article you linked above.

He has some interesting insights into the mechanics of business'. Bottom line is we have set up a system that is very demanding and unrewarding and time consuming. The smart person will step back and draw limits.

You might like some of his stats on how much energy is used in the service sector, pretty well makes your point.

I do think he missed some bigger picture points, but this is only an excerpt from a bigger book.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Loki » Fri 02 May 2014, 00:34:54

Thanks Newfie, I've been mildly interested in the insurance industry and its power to do both good and bad.

Although I avoid bureaucracy like the Black Death, I see exactly what you mean based on some prominent stories in Oregon lately. $248 million spent on a health insurance website that doesn't work and never will, spearheaded by a rather large corporation, Oracle (another several million will be spent switching to the federal health care site). $190 million spent on a bridge that will never be built. Astonishing waste of resources.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Fri 02 May 2014, 10:20:56

Loki,

While I think the author Pops linked has no experience with the engineering process and missed some key points he did a good job of describing how large companies generate process, which generates process, which generates.....

I can only imagine it is the same in all large groups.

A bit ago I hears a news report where the City (Philadelphia) reported it was hamstrung on capital projects as each one takes four to five years to get through the 250 step approval process. There are about 200 work days per year, so each step takes about 3 to 4 days. On the micro level, that sounds pretty good. On the process level, not so much.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Fri 02 May 2014, 10:23:22

BTW, I recently also heard that the idea brainstorming in groups fosters innovation is BS. It came out of some old poorly done study. If you really look at it, it's some geek, alone in a room, where he can think intensely, that fosters innovation.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby dinopello » Fri 02 May 2014, 13:04:51

I'll tell you what - somebody "made" the automated systems by which my company now does travel booking, expense reporting, purchasing, and IT support tickets but it was a whole lot better for the end-user when you could just pick up a phone and talk to a person who was providing the "service". Arg :x
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Narz » Fri 02 May 2014, 17:09:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e are actually mostly pretty dumb. Our (Job's) "genius" is narrow and self-serving and really just a fad. He was so sure of himself and Apple's brilliance, that he missed very important clues.

Can't argue with this unfortunately. We all miss very important clues.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'B')TW, I recently also heard that the idea brainstorming in groups fosters innovation is BS. It came out of some old poorly done study. If you really look at it, it's some geek, alone in a room, where he can think intensely, that fosters innovation.

Yup, brainstroming & not criticizing people's ideas no matter how inane leads to fewer usable ideas, not more.
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Re: Making vs Serving

Postby Newfie » Fri 02 May 2014, 17:34:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I')'ll tell you what - somebody "made" the automated systems by which my company now does travel booking, expense reporting, purchasing, and IT support tickets but it was a whole lot better for the end-user when you could just pick up a phone and talk to a person who was providing the "service". Arg :x


You are not alone in that.

I " went off " on IT last week. We have a few problems we are not allowed to fix, they want control. Need to move some patch panels and replace two dead hubs. Our conference room AV has had issues for 4 years.

I now have 4 or 5 "managers" emailing me. They are going to schedule a conference to discuss their strategy and approach!

How 'bout, "Get you ass up here and take a look". It's a train trip from NY to Philly. But, no, they need a charge number for travel, so they can charge it against a job.
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