[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '(')Funny the timing Ibon, as you just posted your pictures. The trees timbered are large ancient trees. Not the stuff of the modern timber industry. There is no value cutting a stick by hand anymore.)

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hanks Ibon for the clarification. I was trying really really hard not to be too snarky. Did I succeed? LOL

[Pops]

I wanted to pull out a picture of the thing Gail is talking about ( got the whole page but hey) which is "Energy Rate Density" from this paper /www.cfa.harvard.edu/~ejchaisson/reprints/EnergyRateDensity_I_FINAL_2011.pdf
if big words and common sense disguised with buzzwords are your thing go for it. LOL

It's basically a fancy way of saying what we always talk about, which is diminishing returns, good money after bad, low hanging fruit, blah, blah. Or Ibon's logging vs helicopter logging for example; ITER vs tallow candles, etc.

The idea that technology can save us from technologies failures.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'I') had no idea the third world had it so nice.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') wanted to pull out a picture

[Loki]

Ibon, that is some crazy impressive chainsaw milling. I'm assuming that guy does this kind of work full time?

I'd rather talk more about chainsaw milling, but to steer this back on topic, that chainsaw uses gasoline, obviously. But even if gasoline becomes super expensive and hard to get, maybe it'll still make sense for folks like the guy in your pics to use his Stihl. Or maybe it won't. I really don't know.

Here in Oregon, some of the best timber country in the world, the timber industry tanked when the housing market went under. The two are intimately tied (for obvious reasons). If Gail's shark fin scenario occurs (which I doubt it will), we can certainly figure out new ways to do things, like your guy hand milling an old growth oak with a chainsaw. We can go back to oxen, skid roads, splash dams, and steam donkeys if things get bad enough. But there won't be much of a timber industry left. There will be a catastrophic drop in demand for their product.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hvacman', 'A')ctually, in the not-so-hippie-dippy world of wood production, scrap wood historically was a transport fuel. Back in the day, logs were hauled from the woods to the mill by narrow-gauge rail using wood-burning locomotives, that is if they weren't floated down to the mill via flume or the river. Wood-fired "steam donkeys" snaked the logs out from the woods to the staging decks.

And the industry is increasingly electrifying:

http://www.letourneau-inc.com/forestry/

These log stackers are like diesel locomotives - series diesel-electric hybrids. They are very popular at western US saw mill log decks. They have regenerative braking and electric motors that do almost everything except steer. Current-generation batteries still don't have the power density, but in a few years, it may be viable to replace the diesel engine with batteries. Jib cranes are fixed and all-electric With a log yard designed around it, mobile log stackers aren't required.

[careinke]

Ibon,

That is some very impressive chainsawing. I'm going to have to show this picture to a few loggers I know. Nice score on the Oak too. Can I ask why in the world you would need a permit to cut a dead tree on your property?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')bon,

Can I ask why in the world you would need a permit to cut a dead tree on your property?

[Quinny]

I was totally impressed by the handmilling by chainsaw, something I have tried on a much smaller scale and have been totally incapable of doing!

My next purchase is one of these.

http://www.logosol.co.uk/store/sawmills/big-mill-system/big-mill-timberjig/big-mill-timmerjigg.html

Back on topic though:

One of the points that I believe that I believe people are missing is the scale of the 'substitution solution'. Point solutions will occur, and I believe that rationing will be the chosen option for many governments, but the timescale (and the 'energy sink effect') will IMHO make the idea that you'll all suddenly be driving round in NG vehicles whilst switching electricity generation to solar unrealistic.

[vtsnowedin]

How many barrels of oil are in a cubic mile? Or more to the point how long will it take to use a cubic mile of oil at current production rates?

[Pops]

LOL, the climate change and peak oil thread turns to chainsaws.

[dohboi]

"LOL, the climate change and peak oil thread turns to chainsaws."

Which brings me to my favorite metaphor regarding our present predicament:

We are a five year old wielding a live chainsaw. Yet some seem to think that what we need most is more fuel for the saw.

[ROCKMAN]

I cubic mile of oil (assuming all oil and not the oil in a cubic mile of reservoir rock) = 150 billion cubic feet (5280’ X 5280’ X 5280’). And 1 bbl = 5.6 cubic feet

So 150 billion cubic feet/5.6 cubic feet per bbl = about 26 billion bbls of oil

Or about 300 days of current global production.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') cubic mile of oil (assuming all oil and not the oil in a cubic mile of reservoir rock) = 150 billion cubic feet (5280’ X 5280’ X 5280’). And 1 bbl = 5.6 cubic feet

So 150 billion cubic feet/5.6 cubic feet per bbl = about 26 billion bbls of oil

Or about 300 days of current global production.

[Quinny]

When I first saw it 1 cubic mile was about a years consumption.

The maths seemed to be to be OK (to an order of magnitude) when I took a quick look, but I stand to be corrected!

[Tanada]

26 E10^9 * 6.1 E10^9 = 158.6 E10^18
4500 * 365 * 24 =39.42 E10^6 * 3.6 E10^12 = 141.912 E10^18
158.6 ~~141.912

Quinny is correct, the numbers are actually within the ballpark of one another.

However that does not change the other point about wind/solar/nuclear/coal not having a defined unit size to judge against. Suffice it to say, a cubic mile of oil has a whole lot of energy in it, and we burn over a cubic mile every year.

Coal consumption world wide in 2011 was 8 Billion short tons according to the EIA. There are roughly 39 cubic feet of coal in a short ton and as ROCKMAN pointed out 5280^3 feet in a cubic mile. That gives a mass of 3,774,306,461 short tons per cubic mile of coal. 8 Billion divided by 3.774 Billion gives 2.119 Cubic Miles of Coal consumed in 2011.

[ROCKMAN]

And now to keep this "meaningful" comparison going lets compute the energy in a cubic mile of apples and compare to a 1,000 cubits of oranges. I anxiously await your numbers. LOL.