Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:17:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '
')Wrong-o! The date of release is irrelevant.


Now you are just being dishonest.

Consider this----a town has a morning newspaper and an evening newspaper. One is published earlier and one is published in the afternoon.

If it was dinnertime and someone told you to go buy the latest paper, would you buy the morning paper or the afternoon paper?

Which one is the latest?

You're a slippery one, c-abun. Lets see you lie about that.

If I was looking for the previous day's stock quotes, or for some news which had already happened last month, it would make no difference which paper I bought, as both would contain the same information.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:21:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Which one is the latest?

it would make no difference which paper I bought, as both would contain the same information.


Which is the latest?

Jeez .... are you that dumb?

If its dinner time and someone asks to buy the latest paper, would you buy the morning paper or the evening paper---which one is the latest?

Do you understand English or not?
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:27:11

We're talking about something which happened last month. It makes no difference whether we receive that information on Wednesday, or today. One is not more up-to-date than the other. Your insistence that the date of release somehow makes the more recent release "better" is just flat-out-wrong.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:34:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'I')f the unemployment rate goes up, median family income automatically goes down ...
Not necessarily.
Eg., if the unemployment was in the upper brackets while incomes increased in the lower brackets.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'W')hy do I have to explain stuff like this? Am I the only one here who has anything resembling analytical abilities? :roll:

:roll:
Facebook knows you're a dog.
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7344
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Feb 2014, 23:38:09

^
Technically, that is possible. But it has never worked out that way - at least not since they began tracking the data in 1984.

Notice it's gone down during every recession (shaded in gray). And, of course, during every recession the unemployment rate goes up.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 08 Feb 2014, 01:01:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'Y')our insistence that the date of release somehow makes the more recent release "better" is just flat-out-wrong.


I never said it was "better" you ninny. I said the BLS data was released later. :roll:

You said it wasn't released later.

You are wrong.

The BLS data was released later. It is the latest release Get it now?

Sheesh...your reading comprehension is really poor. Is English your native language or are you dyslexic? Whats the problem?
Last edited by Plantagenet on Sat 08 Feb 2014, 01:03:48, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 08 Feb 2014, 01:03:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '^')
Technically, that is possible. But it has never worked out that way - at least not since they began tracking the data in 1984.
It is not likely to happen while there is increasing income disparity. It could if that trend were reversed.
Facebook knows you're a dog.
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7344
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 08 Feb 2014, 01:40:06

Quite plainly, here you said that the (ADP) information released on Wednesday was "old news." Given that it was for the same month as the BLS data released today, it wasn't really "old." The only reason it might have seemed "old" was because Loki decided to quote me on the Wednesday (ADP) post, as if I had been posting it about today's (BLS) release. :roll: Maybe if you had paid attention to what day I had actually posted that quote that Loki resurrected, we wouldn't be having this discussion. In this quote you act as if I had posted the information about the ADP release today, when in reality I posted it on Wednesday.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '[')b]US private companies created 175,000 jobs in January vs. 180,000 estimate


Thats old news. The latest data from the BLS says only 117,000 jobs were created in January. Thats the second bad month in a row.

I understand why you'd want to ignore the latest data, but you can't just cherrypick the numbers you want.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby lasseter » Sat 08 Feb 2014, 07:13:06

There are three kinds of lies:
lies, damned lies, and statistics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers?

At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll employment for the previous month.1 This estimate of jobs gained or lost over the month is closely watched by policymakers and those who work in financial markets and the media. When the estimate is revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes perceive a very different picture of the job market than what was initially reported.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/re ... umbers.htm


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')More BLS Lies, Coming Right Up
December 5th, 2013


I feel like it’s been a lifetime since I first wrote of how U.S. economic data is at best inaccurate, and at worst, flat out fiction. The genesis of this fraud dates back decades; specifically, when the CPI inflation index was “rejiggered” in the mid-1990s to include price suppressing techniques such as “substitution” and “hedonics.” It shouldn’t surprise anyone that nearly simultaneously, the dollar peaked in international purchasing power while the U.S. economy entered a death spiral that continues to this very day...
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/more-bls- ... g-right-up


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The BLS: A History Of (Downward) Revisions, Or How The Department Of Truth Goosed Markets With Half A Million Fake Jobs In Two Years

Zero Hedge has previously demonstrated the improbable, for lack of a better word, upward bias in revising initial jobless claims applications. Today, we look at an even greater statistical problem at the BLS: that of Non-Farm Payrolls. ..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bls-hi ... -fake-jobs
Friends, good long lasting friends, these are worth more than gold
User avatar
lasseter
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat 11 Jan 2014, 03:34:30
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 17 Feb 2014, 20:21:27

Tick tock

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26225205

Floods and snows and climate are grabbing the headlines, but the ravenous beast of deflation is sniffing fresh blood. Be a little while yet. Enjoy your stimulus funded "growth".

Peaking round the corner.
User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 17 Feb 2014, 21:45:21

User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 00:17:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'T')ick tock

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26225205

Floods and snows and climate are grabbing the headlines, but the ravenous beast of deflation is sniffing fresh blood. Be a little while yet. Enjoy your stimulus funded "growth".

Good article. Does not bode well for the Great Recovery.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he economic slowdown evident in China, coupled with recent manifestations of tension in its financial markets, can be seen as the third wave of the global financial crisis which began in 2007-08 (the first wave was the Wall Street and City debacle of 2007-08; the second was the eurozone crisis).

...

After the crash, thanks to the stimulus and the unleashing of all that construction, investment surged to an unprecedented 50% of GDP, where it has more or less stayed.

Here is the thing: when a big economy is investing at that pace to generate wealth and jobs, it is a racing certainty that much of it will never generate an economic return, that the investment is way beyond what rational decision-making would have produced.

That is why in China, there are vast residential developments and even a whole city where the lights are never on and why there are gleaming motorways barely tickled by traffic.

But what makes much of the spending and investment toxic is the way it was financed: there has been an explosion of lending. China's debts as a share of GDP have been rising at a very rapid rate of around 15% of GDP, or national output, annually and have increased since 2008 from around 125% of GDP to 200%.

The analyst Charlene Chu, late of Fitch, gave a resonant synoptic description of this credit binge:

"Most people are aware we've had a credit boom in China but they don't know the scale. At the beginning of all of this in 2008, the Chinese banking sector was roughly $10 trillion in size. Right now it's in the order of $24 to $25 trillion.

"That incremental increase of $14 to $15 trillion is the equivalent of the entire size of the US commercial banking sector, which took more than a century to build. So that means China will have replicated the entire US system in the span of half a decade."


But then again, what could possibly go wrong with easy credit? Growth is always good, right?
A garden will make your rations go further.
User avatar
Loki
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3509
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Oregon
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 01:12:28

China is a double-edge sword these days. While their slowdown in growth may create some "deflation" in some sectors - commodities in particular - their wages are continuing to rise which will create inflation in whatever they export to the US and other developed nations. Also, a slowdown in commodity prices is not necessarily a bad thing, and can even be a good thing, especially for consumers. That said, another downside is that slowing growth in China means US and other companies who do business there will see their revenue/profit growth in that market slow down. It's really a mixed bag and probably a wash wrt the US economy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'T')ick tock

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26225205

Floods and snows and climate are grabbing the headlines, but the ravenous beast of deflation is sniffing fresh blood. Be a little while yet. Enjoy your stimulus funded "growth".

Peaking round the corner.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 03:50:51

It's all a continuation in the trend of "global equalisation" that has been going on ever since globalisation.
Wages and standards of living for the vast majority of western peoples are and will continue to decline while the eastern peoples continue to rise, eventually meeting somewhere in the middle. We've got a long way to go! The availability of fossil derived energy will limit how much Chindia can grow as well.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 05:39:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '
')Wages and standards of living for the vast majority of western peoples are and will continue to decline while the eastern peoples continue to rise, eventually meeting somewhere in the middle.
If that rise does match the fall in the purchasing power you end up with over capacity. That over capacity will see retrenchment and deflation. A depression. The housing boom in the US and elsewhere created a credit driven boom that covered for this, now QE and state debt are papering over the cracks.

But China's internal consumption is not filling the vacuum. The clock is ticking. The alarm wont go off this or perhaps even this year. But the crisis continues and deepens.
User avatar
dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5193
Joined: Sun 05 Aug 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 08:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he face of poverty in the UK is changing and in-work poverty has increased over recent decades.
The latest data shows – for the first time – that more than half the 13 million people experiencing poverty in the UK live in households where at least one person is working.
This is an inconvenient truth for politicians fond of saying work is the best route out of poverty.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... -more-jobs

Seems like the jobs of the future are Macjobs
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
User avatar
Shaved Monkey
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed 30 Mar 2011, 01:43:28
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 20 Feb 2014, 10:29:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'T')he real solution is to jettison the bubble structure, and transition to a natural and robust manufacturing / mining / agriculture economy, where REAL productive assets are wielded to generate REAL growth ... not bubble fluff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '.').. meaningful mfgr growth that happens with natural interest rates (GERMANY) ...

Now that I've established beyond any reasonable doubt that the US's manufacturing is more "natural" than even Germany's due to our higher interest rates, let's see if certain doomers come by and tell us, "Gee, this is good news, I'm glad to see this happening and thank you for posting the article." :lol:

Image

U.S. Markit flash PMI jumps to 56.7 in February
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]An early gauge of U.S. manufacturing jumped to its highest level in almost four years in February from the prior month, Markit reported Thursday. The U.S. flash purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.7 in February, up from January level of 53.7, which was a three-month low. This is the fastest overall improvement in conditions since May 2010. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, with higher readings signaling faster expansions. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said production has rebounded from a weather-related slowdown seen in January. He noted that there was the largest rise in backlogs of work seen since prior to the financial crisis, as well as a steep fall in inventories. "Both point to ongoing growth of production and hiring in March," Williamson said.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 20 Feb 2014, 10:33:46

In other news, after a period of volatility, initial claims have been in the 330K's for 3 weeks in a row now, which is historically a typical low level for that series. Still awaiting that double-dip! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 20 Feb 2014, 22:11:39

Image

Leading Indicators Index in U.S. Increased 0.3% in January
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed in January, an indication the economy will bounce back after winter storms damped economic growth at the beginning of 2014.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.3 percent
after no change in the prior month, the New York-based group said today. The advance matched the median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 21 Feb 2014, 18:49:26

G20 meeting in Australia with a prediction from the OECD of a new era of low economic growth.
Lots of talk of falling productivity but no mention of oils role in it.
They either dont know or dont want to scare the sheeple,Im betting on the later.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')OECD warns of new era of low economic growth globally

''Some of the key drivers of productivity growth - credit, investment, international trade - have been very sluggish, in some cases unusually weak, since the crisis,'' Mr Gurria said in Sydney.

''Low growth, high unemployment, growing inequality, a big drop in confidence in all the institutions we've built over 50 to 100 years … all these developments have already reduced trend growth in the advanced economies,'' he said.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/oecd-war ... z2u01n1vBf
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
User avatar
Shaved Monkey
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed 30 Mar 2011, 01:43:28
Top

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron