[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . Dunno copious.abundance but I think this quote from your post neatly sums up the problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Hiring was also expected to grow, but less robustly than the other figures".

[copious.abundance]

From the actual report
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')mployment
Manufacturing employment grew at a slower rate, with the index ending the survey period at 6 compared to last month’s reading of 14. The average workweek picked up, however, moving that index up two points to end at 8, while the index for average wages gained one point from last month’s reading, moving to 11.

[copious.abundance]

And the Dallas Fed index, which was conveniently ignored, contained the following information:

From the release
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')abor market indicators reflected increased hiring and longer workweeks. The January employment index edged up for a second month, rising to 8.6 [from 7.4]. Eighteen percent of firms reported net hiring compared with 10 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index returned to positive territory, rising to 3.4 after dipping to -1.1 in December.

[copious.abundance]

Anyway, the other good economic news of the day is ...

Fed tapers another $10 billion.

[Outcast_Searcher]

So is there ANY point at which we should stop talking about a "double dip" -- when the recovery (anemic though it is) has been going on well over 4 years now?

Or do doomers (like extreme liberals or extreme conservatives) ignore all definitions and reality in pursuit of bleating about their "true cause"?

And yes, I'm a moderate who observes that generally, despite all the hyperbole and out-of-context focus on specific data points by BOTH doomers and cornies the long term truth continues to apparently be that: we muddle on, for both better and worse. (Which is about as "moderate" as the position would seem to imply).

(Just curious if an actual learning process is involved here, or if this is just a place to vent one's spleen).

[lasseter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'T')he doomer mantra: The only truthful news is bad news. Anything resembling good news must be a lie, because it is impossible for things to get better.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . well said lasseter. Methinks some folks here ought to get out into the real world instead of living in the virtual reality of meaningless charts and numbers they bring up on their screens.

I live in the (so far) lucky country but have friends and acquaintances in the US and the America they speak of bears little resemblance to the one portrayed by ca.

On a brighter note I believe I heard the POTUS has decreed a lift in the minimum wage to ten dollars an hour . . . is this true and correct?

Cheers.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'O')f course there is good news out there, I have never denied it. But people such as yourself proclaim that these titbits of good news add up to a recovery, they do not.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')he simple fact that there is a lot more bad than good

[Loki]

Oops, double post. Or should I call it a double dip?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')his is Oily's 5% recovery hypothesis

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'S')o is there ANY point at which we should stop talking about a "double dip" -- when the recovery (anemic though it is) has been going on well over 4 years now?

Or do doomers (like extreme liberals or extreme conservatives) ignore all definitions and reality in pursuit of bleating about their "true cause"?

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'T')his is Oily's 5% recovery hypothesis

[lasseter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scrub Puller', 'I') live in the (so far) lucky country but have friends and acquaintances in the US and the America they speak of bears little resemblance to the one portrayed by ca.

On a brighter note I believe I heard the POTUS has decreed a lift in the minimum wage to ten dollars an hour . . . is this true and correct?

Cheers.

[copious.abundance]

Still awaiting that double-dip. Or meltdown. Or whatever it was supposed to be!



U.S. economy grows 3.2% at end of 2013: Biggest rise in consumer spending in three years; exports also strong
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. economy expanded rapidly in the final three months of 2013, as consumers shrugged off a government shutdown, with the data fueling hopes of even faster growth ahead.

The total value of all goods and services produced by the economy, known as gross domestic product, grew at a 3.2% annual pace in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 3.3% gain.

Leading the way was the biggest burst of consumer spending in three years and a snap-back in business investment. Sharply improved exports also added to the glow.

[...]

Inside fourth-quarter GDP

The most promising sign in the waning months of 2013 was a surge in consumer spending, the source of more than two-thirds of the nation’s economic growth. Spending jumped 3.3%.

Americans also spread out their purchases. Spending on services rose 2.5% while outlays for long-lasting goods such as autos, cars and computers advanced 5.9%.

Although consumers not be able to keep up hat pace of spending, the increase was the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2010 and easily surpassed the 2.2% average since the recession ended.

Businesses also got off the sidelines, boosting investment on equipment by 6.9% after a paltry 0.2% increase in the third quarter.

Companies will have to continue to increase investment if the economy is to sustain its recent growth trajectory, but they won’t do so unless consumer demand remains strong.

One sign that they don’t expect a big retreat in consumer spending was the amount of inventories they stockpiled for future sale. Businesses increased inventories by $127.2 billion, even faster than the $115.7 billion buildup in the third quarter. Normally firms stockpile goods at a much slower rate if they think sales will level off.

Exports, meanwhile, also registered sharp fourth-quarter growth. Exports surged 11.4% and imports grew at a much slower 0.9% pace. One reason: The U.S. is returning to its historic role as a major producer of petroleum and it’s importing less from other nations.

The only drags on the economy in the fourth quarter were housing and government spending.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Bombshell Report From The New York Fed Suggests The Labor Market Is Tighter Than People Think

[Keith_McClary]

Top Obama aide predicts drama-free U.S. debt ceiling increase$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;We're at a place where there is more growth, energy and optimism," she said.

[dolanbaker]

Meanwhile elsewhere in the US...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640
US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has warned the US may default on its debt by the end of the month if Congress does not raise its borrowing limit.

Mr Lew said he could rely on emergency measures to pay US debts after the limit is reinstated on 7 February.

But he anticipated the treasury's reserves would quickly be exhausted as it issues annual income tax refunds.

Congress suspended the debt limit in October as part of a deal to reopen the federal government after a shutdown.

The $16.7tn (£10.2tn) cap will be reinstated on Friday.

"Without borrowing authority, at some point very soon, it would not be possible to meet all of the obligations of the federal government," Mr Lew said at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington on Monday.

The treasury secretary said the US treasury department could resort to accounting mechanisms to avoid breaching the limit until the end of February.

But soon after, the US will only be able to pay its debt and other obligations with cash on hand.

Here's one of my "21st Century Economy" posts - with a really interesting twist. And it also has a lot to do with the "bombshell report" article I posted above.



21st Century Economy: The Kids Are Alright
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]

The pessimism around the Millennial generation is, at best, premature. We already know that income scales with education, and the Millennial Generation will be the most educated in history. The oldest of the Millennials, 30–34s, have a much higher post-secondary attainment rate than than their parents: 45% to the 40% of 50–54s. Beyond education, income also scales with age. With the modal Millennial being 21 today, over the next decade millennials will likely make their largest age-based income gains (more than $22,000). With this higher income, 25–34′s spend a great deal more, and more frequently form households.

All of these new households need a home

The Census Bureau forecasts an additional 30 million Americans in 10 years. This is in addition to the 22 million 20–24s who largely haven’t formed households, who will become 30–34s who have. Even using the densest household age bracket, 35–44s at 3.3, that is 16.25 million new households, or 1.625 million per year (Figure 4). This is largely consistent with other estimates, such as from the Federal Reserve’s Andrew Paciorek.

[...]

[dolanbaker]

After the fluff, the hard reality..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Asian stocks down after US sell-off
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26027435
Asian stocks have fallen, tracking a sell-off in the US, amid worries of a slowdown in the US recovery and slower growth in emerging economies.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 2.3% and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.6%.

This follows declines of more than 2% in both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes in the US on Monday.

Investor morale has been hurt by weak factory data from both the US and China - the world's two biggest economies.

On Monday, a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a trade group of purchasing managers, showed that US manufacturing barely grew last month.

The ISM's index of manufacturing activity fell to 51.3 in January from 56.5 in December.

It was the lowest reading since May, triggering concerns that the US economy might be starting to weaken.

Meanwhile, official data released over the weekend showed that China's manufacturing activity hit a five-month low in January.