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Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 23 Jan 2014, 18:40:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'l')ol, lipstick on a pig.

47 Million Food Stamp Recipients
70 Trillion in total obligations
13 Trillion in mortgage debt
3 trillion in CC debt.

No way to grow out of that hole lol.

It's really amusing reading some newbie doomer repeating all the same stuff the starter of this thread has posted, not to mention all the same stuff the other doomers here have been incessantly posting here the past 3-4 years, but this newbie seems blissfully unaware that these doomers who kept posting all that stuff have been disappearing. And the reason they've been disappearing is because, to put it bluntly, they've been flat-out wrong for the past 3-4 years, and they're starting to silently acknowledge their mistakes by going away.

- I'm still awaiting that double-dip that was predicted more than 3 years ago, which started this thread.
- I'm still awaiting that meltdown, which has been incessantly predicted here and elsewhere.
- I'm still awaiting that dollar crash, which has been incessantly predicted here and elsewhere.
- I'm still awaiting that bursting bubble (housing, stock market, etc.) which has been incessantly predicted here and elsewhere.
- I'm still awaiting that precipitous fall-off in oil production that was incessantly predicted here and elsewhere. And those high-depleting shale wells - both gas and oil - were supposed to be popping that shale bubble by now because they were un-economic, and blah blah blah.

So, this newbie doomer comes by and starts rolling off some stats - same stuff the other doomers here have rambled on about - and some of these stats are third tier stats (such as food stamps), because the recovery has forced them to resort to third tier stats, because that's all they've got left. And other stats they roll off are ridiculous, like mortgage debt ... as if they suppose everyone is supposed to buy a house with 100% cash down! :lol: There is no thought in rolling off these stats, perhaps because a little bit of thinking might tell them things aren't so doomerish.

What's worse is, they don't even do their own research. Mostly what they do is regurgitate whatever Zerohedge or some other doomer site tells them.

Take credit card debt. Little doubt that $3 trillion was pulled off some doomer site. First of all, it's not $3 trillion, it's more like $850 billion. Second, it's not even growing much anymore. It shot up for a while between 2005 and 2008, then fell back down from 2009 to 2011, and then resumed to its previous trend - but with an even slower rise.

Here is the chart showing the Federal Reserve's revolving credit statistic, which is essentially the balances of all credit cards held by all US banks.

Image
LINK

Specifically, the number is $856,880,730,000 as of November.

Would your garden variety doomer have the gumption to actually look up a stat like this his or herself? Nooo, of course not. They're too intellectually lazy. The intellectually lazy doomer who started this thread was particularly guilty of that. All he did was regurgitate the garbage emanating from Zerohedge or Karl Denninger or some other doomer, believing it and repeating it without question, over and over again, ad nauseum. Completely incapable of doing his own research. I wonder how many more doomers like that we're going to get? :lol: It looks like we've now got one more.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 01:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '
')Would your garden variety doomer have the gumption to actually look up a stat like this his or herself? Nooo, of course not. They're too intellectually lazy. The intellectually lazy doomer who started this thread was particularly guilty of that.

Wait, aren't you the guy who just posted a median household income chart that wasn't adjusted for inflation, hoping to pass it off as proof of your recovery? Then tried to bullshit your way out of it by demanding I need to specifically request the real data? :lol:

Speaking of lazy, I don't recall you ever posting a chart you've made yourself. Just quick and dirty FRED charts, preferably non-inflation-adjusted :wink:
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 02:47:01

Breaking news for Loki:

1. You might have noticed I got that median income chart from FRED, which pretty much means I looked up the data myself, rather than copying something from Zerohedge.
2. That I used nominal median income instead of real median income only goes to show you've got to be careful what statistic you cite. You did not say real median income (look up the exchange yourself) so I, in turn, did not show a chart of real median income. I'm trying to keep you on your toes. :lol:

I believe I've made a chart using Excel now and then, but it's easier getting the same data and charts from FRED or Economagic, so I see no reason to reinvent the wheel.

Then of course I've often added commentary on FRED or Economagic charts to point out things someone is missing. Such as this one.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Loki » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 03:11:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '
')2. That I used nominal median income instead of real median income only goes to show you've got to be careful what statistic you cite. You did not say real median income (look up the exchange yourself) so I, in turn, did not show a chart of real median income. I'm trying to keep you on your toes. :lol:

Posting a chart like that is either intellectual laziness/ignorance or outright dissemblance.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 12:23:22

You have to be careful with what you say to me Loki, I'm too smart for most of you. 8) One little slip of the tongue, such as omission of the word "real," and you'll pay for it! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 24 Jan 2014, 18:23:05

Investor sheep see wolf! [smilie=5eek.gif]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11900474
(Close) Stocks on Wall Street fell sharply on Friday as jitters in emerging markets spooked investors.

In New York, the Dow Jones fell 318.24 points, just shy of 2%. The Nasdaq fell 2% to 4130.44, while the S&P 500 also dropped 2% to end at 1790.31.

On Thursday, Argentina abandoned efforts to defend the peso, and it fell 11% against the US dollar.

Other emerging market currencies have also fallen, and nerves spread to European stock markets on Friday.

Confidence among investors has also been knocked by a survey from China on Thursday indicating the country's manufacturing sector contracted this month.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 25 Jan 2014, 03:33:33

Dissembly, cognitive dissonance, normalcy bias......call it what you will. Its all just denial in the end. None of this is about who wins or who is right or wrong, its about a search for reality in the ever increasingly bullshit filled world. The reality is that we are being lied to about a lot of things. Its a choice to look the other way when the lies become too many and they stop making sense.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 25 Jan 2014, 22:07:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')ts about a search for reality in the ever increasingly bullshit filled world. The reality is that we are being lied to about a lot of things. Its a choice to look the other way when the lies become too many and they stop making sense


Denial comes home to roost. (9/11 was an inside job)
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby lasseter » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 06:44:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', ' ')

What's worse is, they don't even do their own research. Mostly what they do is regurgitate whatever Zerohedge or some other doomer site tells them.

Take credit card debt. Little doubt that $3 trillion was pulled off some doomer site. First of all, it's not $3 trillion,


So what? Shadowstats, the government, everyone has their own measure and their all different, if you want to choose the rosy one to make yourself feel good that's fine, but you have major cities falling into bankruptsy, 46 million people in poverty, a collapsing welfare system and debts you cannot hope to repay. You are basically looking at a plate of rotting food and pointing out to us that there are a few edible peas. No one is fooled by this tactic.

Enjoy your peas.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 27 Jan 2014, 02:30:58

The doomer mantra: The only truthful news is bad news. Anything resembling good news must be a lie, because it is impossible for things to get better. :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 27 Jan 2014, 03:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'T')he doomer mantra: The only truthful news is bad news. Anything resembling good news must be a lie, because it is impossible for things to get better. :lol:

No good news to post today so! :wink:
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 27 Jan 2014, 08:28:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'D')issembly, cognitive dissonance, normalcy bias......call it what you will. Its all just denial in the end. None of this is about who wins or who is right or wrong, its about a search for reality in the ever increasingly bullshit filled world. The reality is that we are being lied to about a lot of things. Its a choice to look the other way when the lies become too many and they stop making sense.


In other words.....

Image
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 27 Jan 2014, 08:32:55

Apple manufacturing partner looks to build factory in the US

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101364554

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')aiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry, the main manufacturer of Apple products and a symbol of U.S. outsourcing, is reportedly weighing a plan to build an advanced display manufacturing facility in its largest market.

At the company's 40th anniversary celebration on Sunday, Chairman Terry Guo said he is looking to relocate capital-intensive and high-tech manufacturing to the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby joewp » Mon 27 Jan 2014, 22:52:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '
')In other words.....

Image


Yeah, Aunty, it is...

Image
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Jan 2014, 12:12:27

Consumer confidence tops forecasts in January
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/01/28/Photos/MG/MW-BT450_uniqlo_20140128102236_MG.jpg?uuid=0e486830-8830-11e3-8009-00212803fad6[/img]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Wall Street may be worried but consumers aren’t, according to data released Tuesday.

A gauge of consumer confidence advanced in January, topping forecasts. The Conference Board said its confidence index rose to 80.7 in January from 77.5 in December
, beating the 77.1 seen in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll.

A component measuring the present situation rose to 79.1 from 75.3 and the expectations index rose to 81.9 from 79.

The index, which has shot up from a 58.4 level in January 2013, still hasn’t been in triple-digit territory since Aug. 2007, a few months before the onset of the Great Recession.

But there are signs consumers are beginning to see noticeable improvements in the economy and the jobs market in particular. The percentage of those who say jobs are “hard to get” — 32.6% in January — hasn’t been this low in over five years.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Jan 2014, 15:48:14

Durable goods report....ugly. November revised DOWN.

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/ ... /durgd.pdf

No need for stupid pictures, just data.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 28 Jan 2014, 17:27:51

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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 28 Jan 2014, 18:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '[')url=http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/28/uk-jpmorgan-man-death-idUKBREA0R0HC20140128]Not everyones happy.[/url]

Could be related....
The banking world appears to be like a swan, moving smoothly over the river, while under the water its legs are flapping like mad!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25939187
The Turkish central bank has raised its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% after an emergency meeting.

It also increased the overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5%.

The move was intended to help stabilise the value of the lira, which plunged in recent days amid ongoing turmoil in emerging markets.

The lira immediately strengthened after the move, to 2.2 lira to the US dollar, from 2.253.
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Jan 2014, 03:24:42

Image

Manufacturers in Dallas Fed Region Start 2014 with Stronger Demand
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that manufacturing activity picked up slightly in January. In fact, the index for new orders rose sharply from 1.3 in December to 14.4 in January, with 31.7 percent of respondents saying that their sales had increased to begin the new year. Many of the other components of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey were up less robustly. For instance, the composite index of general business activity barely increased, up from 3.7 to 3.8.

Yet, the overarching theme of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was the continued expansion see in the sector in the Dallas Fed district, albeit a mostly modest one. The composite index has not reflected growth for eight straight months. Moreover, several of the key indicators expressed a somewhat faster pace of growth in January. This included production (up from 6.0 to 7.1), shipments (up from 0.4 to 9.2), employment (up from 7.4 to 8.6), hours worked (up from -1.1 to 3.4), and capital expenditures (up from 13.3 to 18.9).

Looking ahead, manufacturers in the Dallas Fed region continued to be mostly positive about future levels of activity. For example, 55.8 percent of respondents anticipate higher sales in the next six months, with just 8.0 percent predicted reductions in new orders. Similar findings can be noted for production, capacity utilization, shipments, employment, and capital spending. The index for one’s company outlook six months ahead increased from 24.6 to 33.5.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Here Comes The Meltdown Pt. 9.2-Double Dip-

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Jan 2014, 03:30:58

Elsewhere in the South ...

Image

Richmond Fed Observed Rising Manufacturing Activity for the Third Straight Month
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Manufacturing activity expanded strongly in January, according to the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, continuing a trend seen since November. In fact, the average composite index over the past three months was 12.7, a nice improvement from the stalled levels of manufacturing growth in the district observed in both September and October.

Despite the better news, the underlying subcomponents were mixed, with a slower pace of growth for some measures. On the positive side, new orders (up from 10 to 14), capacity utilization (up from 8 to 11), and the average workweek (up from 6 to 8) were all higher. In contrast, shipments (down from 15 to 14) and the number of employees (down from 14 to 6). Nonetheless, each of these figures suggest continued expansion overall.

Along those lines, manufacturers in the Richmond Fed district remain mostly upbeat about the next six months — a finding consistent with other regional surveys. Respondents were generally optimistic about sales, shipments, utilization, and capital spending for the first half of 2014. Hiring was also expected to grow, but less robustly than the other figures.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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