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Stabbing the beast

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Newfie » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 08:55:13

That would work only in warm climates. In temperate climates you need much more land for wood lots, to heat. Or, it's a return to the crafters Black House. Sort of a peat igloo with a common fireplace.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby KaiserJeep » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 10:58:49

"Stabbing the beast" to some people means advocating that one drops out of a consumer lifestyle, for one more environmentally sound. Based on what I have read in this thread, to other people it means going over the top, environmental activism, and sabotage of the system itself.

I'm pretty certain that environmental activism has never had any net benefit. I remember when activists were torching new SUVs. Then I remember investigations at several Silicon Valley car dealerships where only last year's SUV models got burned. Activism had become a tool for clearing dead inventory.

Likewise I don't know anybody who believes that the "Occupy Wall Street" crowd ever accomplished anything positive. In the end, pretty much all the media coverage was negative.

Tree sitters around here don't even make the news any more. The various law enforcement agencies have developed techniques and equipment to get them out of the trees.

I would advise that you use care when you skirt the edge between criticism of Capitalism and actual activism, which potentially increases human misery. Recent history says that even causing a traffic jam at rush hour is enough to heap popular media scorn on the cause you thought you were promoting.

Image

Even the picture associated with "Stabbing the Beast" above does not really mean what you think it does. It depicts a member of the harmful human species that is destroying the Earth, stabbing an endangered species of apex predator shark, from a wooden fishing vessel which is about to create an environmentally damaging slick of engine oil and diesel fuel. (Yes I know it's really a cybernetic shark prop on a wooden prop boat, and that the actor Robert Shaw would go on to star in yet another Peter Benchley novel-turned-movie after that.)
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby dinopello » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 12:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he irony being that some of the now least privileged may be some of the best situated to survive.


Ironic, maybe. But, long time recognized as the case.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Blessed are the meek:
for they shall inherit the earth.
-Mathew 5:5


Maybe the ironic thing is it seems most of the most fervent bible thumpers forget that part. Maybe the new pope does though.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby lasseter » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 16:43:04

There is a lot of talk about living off the land, but how many of these backwoods community inhabitants also recieve government pensions or food stamps? How many use a little gas from time to time, or utilize electricity in their homes, either grid or personal solar? Where do their cloths come from, their salt?

I doubt any communities are truly sef sustaining unless they are in the back blocks of India, and even those may barter for salt that is brought in from the coasts on diesel trucks. My brother and I have decided to have as many solar panels in storage as we have up in the air on our retreat homes, but this is only a buffer, not a sustainable solution.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Pops » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 17:24:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')here is a lot of talk about living off the land, but how many of these backwoods community inhabitants also recieve government pensions or food stamps? How many use a little gas from time to time, or utilize electricity in their homes, either grid or personal solar? Where do their cloths come from, their salt?

Rhetorically speaking, where does yours?

Most likely from a job and 24/7 self-organized JIT technology, right? Without the job or the tech you get nohtin, at least not if you are the 99

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, there have been very few truly sustainably independent folks for a long time now.

OTOH, there have never been so many, so dependent as now.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby dolanbaker » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 17:37:02

Unfortunately (for those who desire to be completely "free") interdependency on others is essential to have any kind of quality of life. There is simply insufficient space to live like a hunter-gatherer and unless you have a large amount of land, insufficient space to supply yourself with all the locally produced food that you would need to sustain yourself & family. Even if you had the land, would you be able to work it without external help.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Newfie » Mon 20 Jan 2014, 17:57:23

Or keep it from being taken from you. :badgrin:
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Loki » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 02:02:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')
But we didn't come up with that plan because we thought we were going to stick it to the Man. You've heard of Jeavons who said the more you conserve the more someone else will consume? That is my view of FF energy as well as Chinese Chachkas.

Sorry Pops, but I think the Jeavons' Paradox is one of the more pernicious memes in the peak oil blogosphere. It had limited application in a specific time and place, but it's not a universal law, nor does it apply to a declining resource like oil. There's an extensive body of academic literature on conservation, it generally shows a takeback effect of ~20% or so, certainly not the >100% Jeavons posited.

We can talk about how conservation = efficiency = fragility. But the Jeavons' Paradox just doesn't apply to a resource-constrained world.

That said, I'd like to believe in Holgrem's assertion that the economy is at a delicate tipping point and can be pushed over by a minority reducing their consumption. Doubt it's true, but like Agent Mulder, I want to believe. :wink:

Regardless, it can't hurt if folks “drop out” of the mainstream economy, even if only in some parts of their life. Cultural change happens slowly.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Pops » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 08:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'W')e can talk about how conservation = efficiency = fragility. But the Jeavons' Paradox just doesn't apply to a resource-constrained world.

Supply has been flat since '05 and at the same time the OECD has reduced consumption. That means we now have a surplus of oil equivalent to the reduced consumption, right?

No, of course not, because the world is supply constrained. Whether Jeavon's is responsible or not doesn't really matter. I'm not arguing for or against the abstract of this or that economic theory, merely that there in fact exist long gas lines. Not at my local station but at the "global filling station" where people are lined up around the block just waiting to buy the gallon I don't because by not buying that gallon I reduce the price pressure just that much.

I always say that the demand side of supply and demand is made of desire plus ability to pay, in a supply constrained world then the real action comes on the demand side where a decrease in my desire increases somone elses ability to pay - or vice versa.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Newfie » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 08:50:27

I too believe the global economy is very fragile and susceptible to collapse.

I tend to believe it will collapse, with or without a push.

In either case I don't think will be pretty, nor will there be much difference if it is today or two years from now. If we are talking 10 years, then maybe timing makes a difference.

Pops, do you think global finance would survive unscathed in the event the CA drought lingers for another two or three years?
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby ralfy » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 21:22:04

According to the chart in this article,

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/pe ... e-problem/

oil consumption is dropping for EU, the U.S., and Japan but rising for the rest of the world. The net is increasing consumption. Also, the drop in consumption may be partly attributed to economic problems.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Loki » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 22:36:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') always say that the demand side of supply and demand is made of desire plus ability to pay, in a supply constrained world then the real action comes on the demand side where a decrease in my desire increases somone elses ability to pay - or vice versa.


Within the confines of the Jevons' paradox, yes, your decrease in demand leads to a lower price, making it more affordable for other folks to increase their use of oil. But in a peak oil world, the price is determined as much by supply as it is demand, increasingly so as the resource diminishes.

Add a deflationary depression like the Great Recession, not to mention the fact that new sources of oil depend on high prices, and Jevons seems less and less relevant.

Jevons is one of my pet peeves, he's used far too often to argue against energy conservation (good post at Think Progress on this). I don't mean to start an argument with you in particular, Pops, but I think it's relevant to the OP.

Speaking of which, the more I think about Holgrem's assertion about collapsing the economy, the more I agree with him to a degree. The more people drop out, at least partially, the bigger drag it will be on “the economy.” Will it be the factor that leads to collapse? Obviously not. But there are already lots of drags on the economy (oil, droughts, superstorms, Ponzi finance, income maldistribution, Justin Bieber, etc.). Adding another one, however small, will help slow the economic growth engine. Jevons notwithstanding :wink:
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby lasseter » Tue 21 Jan 2014, 23:39:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lasseter', 'T')here is a lot of talk about living off the land, but how many of these backwoods community inhabitants also recieve government pensions or food stamps? How many use a little gas from time to time, or utilize electricity in their homes, either grid or personal solar? Where do their cloths come from, their salt?

Rhetorically speaking, where does yours?

Most likely from a job and 24/7 self-organized JIT technology, right? Without the job or the tech you get nohtin, at least not if you are the 99

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, there have been very few truly sustainably independent folks for a long time now.

OTOH, there have never been so many, so dependent as now.


Yes that's right, I have a job and visit a supermarket every week or 2. My post was to point out that very few prepared people are actually prepared for what might be coming. I have visited a lot of survivalist sites over the years and noted how they all have a decent stockpile of this or that but when someone brings up the subject of money, or gold, they laugh it off and say drivel like "you can't eat gold"

They seem convinced that farmers and cattle ranchers will gladly give up their produce for a hand full of .22 cartridges or a couple of Bic lighters. I have my doubts about that. I have a wad of cash hidden as well as 50k in gold and silver coins. If it turns out I am wrong about them it will be the first time in 5000 years precious metals weren't useful as a medium of exchange.

Yes I store food, and I will be raising chickens etc soon. But I doubt I would enjoy my latter years carving wooden teeth and stitching my own britches. There will always be food and other goods for sale, at a price. But there won't always be government handouts to buy them with.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby sparky » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 05:36:17

.
Well , on the survivalist scale , I'm so cool it's freezing :)
no preparation whatsoever , inner city living ( go Roosters !! go !)
full service and conveniences ,as long as it last , use and abuse it !

my plan for the End of the World is to run for it and pillage the survivalists
no problem with cannibalism either , as long as its someone else
as any women or Fijian will tell you , men are pigs

survival is not about the planning ....it's about the attitude
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Ibon » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 08:14:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '
')
Speaking of which, the more I think about Holgrem's assertion about collapsing the economy, the more I agree with him to a degree.


Advocates of nudging the economy toward collapse founded on ecological principals, Holmgren type individauls, folks like many of us, have no real economic power or influence. Collective boycotting of consumption is noble but futile.

On the other hand, from the opposite political spectrum, those with the political and economic power, who want to defend and preserve their privilege at all costs, are the ones who are the most likely candidates to nudge the economy toward collapse. In the bizarre twisted truth of overshoot, those actions would do far more to help the biosphere even though this was not the motive.

In Buddhism, Karma is partially determined by the motive, or intent. When it comes to healing the planet the motive or intent is less important than the result. Some of us may not care a hoot what the political agenda is of the individuals or institutions that weaken the resiliency of this cancerous consumption culture, as long as it is weakened.

I predict that the catalyst that nudges our economy toward collapse will come from the right hand of the political spectrum .
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Tanada » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 08:18:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')ccording to the chart in this article,

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/pe ... e-problem/

oil consumption is dropping for EU, the U.S., and Japan but rising for the rest of the world. The net is increasing consumption. Also, the drop in consumption may be partly attributed to economic problems.


If you change the last sentence to $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso, the drop in consumption may be MOSTLY attributed to economic problems.
then we will be in agreement about where the world is today. Despite all the proclamations by TPTB in Japan/USA/EU the economy has not recovered to its prior level from 2007. The last time this took place in North America oil consumption dropped when the 1979 crisis started hurting things and didn't beat the 1980 level for 8 years, and even then we dipped a couple of times afterwords. The last time we consumed less than 1980 was 1992. Based on this graph Image

it looks to me as if we have clearly stopped dropping in fuel use in the USA and are quasi stable. Every drop we are not burning today is being used up by someone else, notably the BRIC countries.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Pops » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 08:30:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'W')ithin the confines of the Jevons' paradox, yes, your decrease in demand leads to a lower price, making it more affordable for other folks to increase their use of oil. But in a peak oil world, the price is determined as much by supply as it is demand, increasingly so as the resource diminishes.

Add a deflationary depression like the Great Recession, not to mention the fact that new sources of oil depend on high prices, and Jevons seems less and less relevant.

Jevons is one of my pet peeves, he's used far too often to argue against energy conservation

No doubt. I always argued with some of the guru's who used Jeavon's to argue the Cheney-ism "We can't conserve our way out of this problem."

Of course we'll conserve, but there is no way out, LOL.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby ROCKMAN » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 10:34:17

sparky - "survival is not about the planning ....it's about the attitude". I feel the recent US efforts to "export democracy" to the ME, costing us $trillion and countless lives, support your point.

Above someone pointed out that "the meek shale inherit the earth”. You can't inherit nuthin if you're dead. And if you do happen to survive you’ll only inherit what the unmeek have left behind. And given the current stewardship of the planet it doesn’t look like what is left will be worth having.
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Re: Stabbing the beast

Postby Tanada » Wed 22 Jan 2014, 12:44:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 's')parky - "survival is not about the planning ....it's about the attitude". I feel the recent US efforts to "export democracy" to the ME, costing us $trillion and countless lives, support your point.

Above someone pointed out that "the meek shale inherit the earth”. You can't inherit nuthin if you're dead. And if you do happen to survive you’ll only inherit what the unmeek have left behind. And given the current stewardship of the planet it doesn’t look like what is left will be worth having.


Of course you can Rockman, most of the dead in America anyhow inherit their own plot, 3' 6" wide, 8' long and 5' deep. In more crowded spots they make that 3' 2" wide but a standard casket is 28" wide and a standard grave liner is 33" wide, and you have to leave room for the support system to lower it into the hole. Anything less than 3' 2" (38") and you start having issues.
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