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Russian secondary peak approaches?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Postby nth » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 17:34:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')
This is already being done. Russian oil companies have state-of-the-art technologies. They will also be pumping CO2 into the large depleted oilfields. As far as poor reservoir management practices are concerned, you are right, unfortunately.


Russian oil companies have state-of-the-art technologies?

Don't get me wrong. I think Russian engineers are good, but I don't see them with advance equipments. Back in 1980's they had to buy US goods to complete their Natural Gas pipelines to Europe.

Also, BP was able to pump oil out faster from Russian oil fields.

The last I heard which was 3 years ago- they don't have ability for deep sea and horizontal drilling.

Am I wrong?
I am no expert, so not wanting to start argument just want to get my facts straight.
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Russian subsoil law

Postby marek » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 07:41:11

I am writing a paper on how the nationalization of Russia's oil industry might reduce oil extraction below the idealized multi-cycle Hubbert curve. I was wondering if anyone could point me to articles about the new Russian subsoil law. Thanks in advance !!!!!!!
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Postby shakespear1 » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 15:17:56

I just finished working on a project for a major Russian oil company ( not Yukos ) and can say that THEY DID NOT have good data.

Now they are ( in the last 10 yrs ) modernizing and bringing in Western Technology to RE-EVALUATE what they already have done and what else may be doable. But I have seen examples where the old seismic for example took them to the weeds and they needed to consider doing more seismic. Log data quality not reliable to answer tough questions ( better logs available but Western Technology would be needed ) , welltest interpretation, etc.

Then there are still old concepts ingrained in how things should be done ( how we did things 30 yrs ago ). That is why the major Russian oil companies are bringing in Western Service companies to upgrade everything ( Workflow ).

YUKOS was the furthest in modernizing. But Khodorkovski was a crook and played his hand badly and lost. I do not feel sorry for him.

:)
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Postby Russian_Cowboy » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 15:54:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')
This is already being done. Russian oil companies have state-of-the-art technologies. They will also be pumping CO2 into the large depleted oilfields. As far as poor reservoir management practices are concerned, you are right, unfortunately.


Russian oil companies have state-of-the-art technologies?

Don't get me wrong. I think Russian engineers are good, but I don't see them with advance equipments. Back in 1980's they had to buy US goods to complete their Natural Gas pipelines to Europe.

Also, BP was able to pump oil out faster from Russian oil fields.

The last I heard which was 3 years ago- they don't have ability for deep sea and horizontal drilling.

Am I wrong?
I am no expert, so not wanting to start argument just want to get my facts straight.


You are plain wrong. Here is an example. Deep-sea drilling is of no use in Russia where no deep sea oilfields are known. TNK-BP was indeed incleasing its production until the end of 2004 at about the same rate as most other major Russian oil companies were, but after that the production by BP has been stagnating.
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Postby nth » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 18:28:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')You are plain wrong. Here is an example. Deep-sea drilling is of no use in Russia where no deep sea oilfields are known. TNK-BP was indeed incleasing its production until the end of 2004 at about the same rate as most other major Russian oil companies were, but after that the production by BP has been stagnating.



Are you trying to trick me?

The website you gave me goes to a company who have acquired non-Russian technology and claims to be one of the top service companies in Russia today.

No, idea what your point is by telling me this.

TNK-BP production is not the same rate as prior to the joint venture. What data are you basing this on? I am basing mine on BP published data. You can grab it off their website.

Unless you have some other data, I can't just take your word for it.

Hrm... You should look up Russian and Soviet Union purchases of oil drilling equipment before you talk about deep sea drilling.

I have no idea what you are thinking when talking about deep sea drilling, but starting from the 1980's and 1990's millions of dollars of deep sea drilling and oil production equipment were acquired. Many of it were finance by Germany, France, and UK.

You can also look up the history in 1980's of the gas pipelines to Western Europe. Ronald Reagan was against it and Europe couldn't build the pipeline without violating US patents, so US approval was a must. Lots of negotiatings before Reagan approve of it with lots of pressure from Western Europe.

Anyways, so interesting to know that people forget so easily.
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Postby nth » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 18:40:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')This is already being done. Russian oil companies have state-of-the-art technologies. They will also be pumping CO2 into the large depleted oilfields. As far as poor reservoir management practices are concerned, you are right, unfortunately.


Do you know of any abandon oil fields being brought back to life using advance recovery methods?

I am not talking about currently operating brownfields, but abandon ones. Last time, I read an oil survey show lots of abandon oil fields.
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Postby Russian_Cowboy » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 21:25:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')You are plain wrong. Here is an example. Deep-sea drilling is of no use in Russia where no deep sea oilfields are known. TNK-BP was indeed incleasing its production until the end of 2004 at about the same rate as most other major Russian oil companies were, but after that the production by BP has been stagnating.



Are you trying to trick me?

The website you gave me goes to a company who have acquired non-Russian technology and claims to be one of the top service companies in Russia today.

No, idea what your point is by telling me this.


Sorry, I was not clear enough so you missed my point. I am not talking about Russia developing its own horizontal drilling equipment. But all the major Russian companies imported a lot of horizontal drilling equipment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'T')NK-BP production is not the same rate as prior to the joint venture. What data are you basing this on? I am basing mine on BP published data. You can grab it off their website.


This is correct, but my point is that TNK-BP's production rate grew 12.6% from 2003 to 2004 and the extraction rate of the other companies in Russia grew 8.5% according to the BP review of World Energy - 2005. Not a very big difference, especially considering the fact that TNK-BP has the best oilfields. And here are the production figures (bpd) for TNK-BP from Oct. 2004 to March 2005:

October November December January February March
1,502,173 1,485,787 1,475,196 1,437,197 1,493,724 1,509,043 1,505,344

We see no growth, and decreasing production from February to March.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'U')nless you have some other data, I can't just take your word for it.

Hrm... You should look up Russian and Soviet Union purchases of oil drilling equipment before you talk about deep sea drilling.

I have no idea what you are thinking when talking about deep sea drilling, but starting from the 1980's and 1990's millions of dollars of deep sea drilling and oil production equipment were acquired. Many of it were finance by Germany, France, and UK.


Russia never drilled at depths over 3500 m or 11000 feet below water. This is what I mean by DEEP sea drilling. This state of the art robotics equipment has just been developed. Pipelines are clearly beyond the scope of what we are discussing.
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Postby shakespear1 » Fri 17 Jun 2005, 05:43:07

I have limited experience in Russia ( 6 yrs ) so can not generalize too much.

The fields that I saw were mismanaged. What do I mean? They made top of the structure maps. Drilled to find OWC and then would proceed to drill on a basic pattern 300m offset for example. They would put dots on a map and drill there. Where I worked THEY NEVER SIMULATED fields.

Their logs were OK to show pay but not for detailed petrophysics ( not modern analysis).

Their drilling departments worked autonomously and had set targets for metersto be drilled per year. THUS, they stuck wells where they probable should not have been. Just based on that map with the dots.

They would place wells on Injection when oil production woud go down, but the conscept of balancing injection patterns was not practiced. I saw committee meeting where this was discussed and that was it. No calcualtions. Just a committee decision of what to do.

To do this right you should build a model. Even a simple one would allow you to make decisions rationally amd perhaps better understand what is going on in the field. NO. They did not use this technology until they brought Western Companies in.

Today this is changing but then MAJORITY of fields were done this way.

Horizontal drilling. They invented it but they did not perfect it. Their old rigs would not be able to drill horizontals further than 200-300 m. To make matters worst, if you do not have a proper mud system and geosteering you are going to drill God knows what and the rate that well will get may be no better than a vertical well. Their mud pits were just holes in the ground so contamination of drilling mud was assured to screw the wells. Thus you would not see many hrizontals in their old fields. Besides Drilling dept. knew that it was safer to drill vertical and assure them better bonuses. Big Party for Christmas :)

For the Major Russian company I worked for WE brought in the drilling and reservoir expertise. They learned, now they are doing it themselves. To some extent. Hoever the top and middle management is ossified in most of these companies and is just waking up. They are greedy and do not want to pay western prices. END result is that they get good ol Russian results unless they openup. But once you spoil a field it take a hell of a lot of money to undo it IF YOU EVER can undo the damage. :(

Why was YUKOS so successful? Because they did simple things that had been done in the West for YEARS!!!

Do detailed OOIP, study production patterns in the field, estimate remaining production around a well, do NODAL , pull junk out of well, do short fracs to get through damage ( due to SUPER POOR drilling and workover fluid systems used by Russians in the past and present) AND BANGO SUPER WELL. This was something we learned at the University when I was getting my MS. After that everyone in Western Siberia wanted to do fracs and copy.

I am sure there were exception but something gives me the feeling that oil business was done in most of Russia as I describe above.
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Postby Russian_Cowboy » Sun 19 Jun 2005, 03:08:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'I') have limited experience in Russia ( 6 yrs ) so can not generalize too much.


Thanks a lot for your great feedback. You actually have more Russian experience than I do. The problems in Russian oil industry that you described here as of now (year 2005) have mainly to do not with the lack technologies, but with the lack of proper attitude towards the business among the management. This is because they were brought up in the society (late USSR) where people had very little responsibility for their actions. Chernobyl' disaster is a good illustration. The feedback mechanism was not working. Then the academy in the USSR was completely detached from the industry. They would teach you something that was proper to do 50 years ago, but not now. Again because of the missing feedback in the command and control (militaristic) society that the USSR was. So a whole generation should pass before this improper attitude is gone.
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Postby shakespear1 » Sun 19 Jun 2005, 04:17:19

Did you know that in the SU times the young men would go to do military service and stay in there not for 2 yrs but 5. When a Russian told me this I nearly fell off my chair. Thus this military behavior is INGRAINED into all aspects of society!!!! :shock:

So when you go to a Russian oil company, it is run as though you were in the Army. I saw it and experienced it myself . I did not like it as innovation is completely stifled. The attitude was DON'T GET OUT OF LINE.

Even the Managing Director was called the GENERAL!!!!

How it was during SU is no different I suspect from how it is now.
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Postby Russian_Cowboy » Sun 19 Jun 2005, 14:36:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'D')id you know that in the SU times the young men would go to do military service and stay in there not for 2 yrs but 5.


No, this is almost a lie. They would stay in the Army for 2 years (as conscripts) and then they could stay 3 more (as contractors) if they wished. In the Navy it was 3 years mandatory and I do not know how many years on a contract.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', ' ')When a Russian told me this I nearly fell off my chair. Thus this military behavior is INGRAINED into all aspects of society!!!! :shock:

So when you go to a Russian oil company, it is run as though you were in the Army. I saw it and experienced it myself . I did not like it as innovation is completely stifled. The attitude was DON'T GET OUT OF LINE.

Even the Managing Director was called the GENERAL!!!!.


It is just a pecularity of Russian language, but then there is a reason for that probably coming from the society militarization. In general, I think, you are right. Unfortunately, the major Western oil companies are slowly becoming the same militarized structures. All the innovation is done by the smaller "indies."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'H')ow it was during SU is no different I suspect from how it is now.


It was a lot worse during SU from what I heard. I was a kid back then though, but even in school everything was much like in the Army, as compared to what I have seen later in American schools.
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Postby shakespear1 » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 04:51:32

Cowboy

I suspect my friend in Russia was exaggerating as at that time he was looking for money to stay out of the Army :-D I was not surprised as I found out that life in the Army can be hell.

Once on TV ( In St. Petersburg) in 1992 I saw a report about some kids stationed near the Polar Circle that were near starvation and the family had to send food. No idea if this was true or the Army was trying to do things to have a bigger budget.
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Postby nth » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 14:50:05

Russian_Cowboy,

Yes, I misunderstood you. I thought you were claiming Russia was on par with the best US oil firms. I didn't know you meant that Russia bought some state of the art equipment.

I just want to point out that US prevents the exports of top end oil related equipments. They are on list of items that need to be cleared by government agencies and so Russia, China, etc don't have them. Also, many advance equipment are owned by oil service firms and these firms don't sell equipment. You have to contract with them. Yes, Russia does contract with some of them.

I just thought it was misleading to state that Russian oil firms are state of the art when they can only achieve that with US help.

As for comparing oil field productions, I just know BP did implement changes and got better results. Maybe Russians will be able to do this by themselves. I don't know. Nothing more here.

As for deep sea, I was using a different criteria. Nothing more here.
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Postby Russian_Cowboy » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 01:05:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', '
')Cowboy

I suspect my friend in Russia was exaggerating as at that time he was looking for money to stay out of the Army :-D I was not surprised as I found out that life in the Army can be hell.


O, yeah, it can. When my father served in 1970, the military service was almost cool. Then in the late 80s my cousin was in the Navy and it was not so bad yet, but my second cousin was in the Army at the same time and it was already hell. Then I briefly served in 1996 as a lieutenant. By that time, I had NBC training, so I spent 3 months with an NBC unit. What I have seen, the officers were vastly underpaid and did not give crap about their subjects serving as privates, so instead they had a prison-like (or wolf-pack-like) hierarchy among the conscripts to keep things in order. I have also seen lots of other horrible things. It is quite common in the Russian army now. Then they did not have money to pay me for the service as was common in the mid-90s. So, after bribing the senior officers with a 20-pack of vodka bottles, I went home from where I went on to study at a grad school in the US to avoid getting drafted again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'O')nce on TV ( In St. Petersburg) in 1992 I saw a report about some kids stationed near the Polar Circle that were near starvation and the family had to send food. No idea if this was true or the Army was trying to do things to have a bigger budget.


It could be true, during the first week of the NBC training in the troops they almost did not feed us anything back in 1994. But back then it did not matter much, as 2 weeks later the training was finished and they sent us home. I heard more recent stories of some conscripts freezing to death.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'T')hey are on list of items that need to be cleared by government agencies and so Russia, China, etc don't have them. Also, many advance equipment are owned by oil service firms and these firms don't sell equipment. You have to contract with them.


I am agree with your statement about the oil service firms, but I find it hard to believe that the US government can control sales of top-end equipment to Russian companies that can easily buy it from a third party.
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Postby shakespear1 » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 11:15:41

Cowboy

Wow, that is tough what you describe.

I like Russia, but not dealing with people on an official level. That was no fun. Russia still has that "natural" look, however the "heavy" history has really dragged your country down in terms of development. But maybe that is a plus. Now we have a gene pool of individuals able to deal with severe shortages. Not many of these in most Western countries :(

I found Russians ( on average ) most resourceful and just the type of people that could deal with PO. Plus there is a lot of brain power which unfortuantly is either trying to leave or is stifled by the system.

But I think eventually all people on this planet will need to work together to solve future problems. So I hope. :)
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Postby nth » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 12:38:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '
')
I am agree with your statement about the oil service firms, but I find it hard to believe that the US government can control sales of top-end equipment to Russian companies that can easily buy it from a third party.


Okay, it works like this.
US firms know they have to apply to US government.
Third party firms who buy from these companies must state what, how, and where before these products can be sold. The US firms are liable and responsible of how these equipments are being used.

So the only way I can see this happening is simply have a third party setup shop in a third country that is not part of the US export control domain. Buy the equipment for domestic use in the third world country and smuggle it to Russia. And once successful, move to a country that will not extradite you to the US.

Hrm... since US has good enough track record in preventing China and USSR from acquiring a lot of high tech stuff. I think smuggling is difficult.

What I don't understand is why US is the leader in oil exploration and recovery and not other European countries or Saudi Arabia?
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Postby shakespear1 » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 04:56:11

Patents, R&D and manufacturing base of the oil industry got its strong start in the US. Consequently a lot of this equipment is US made. :)
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Postby rockdoc123 » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 10:08:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just want to point out that US prevents the exports of top end oil related equipments. They are on list of items that need to be cleared by government agencies and so Russia, China, etc don't have them. Also, many advance equipment are owned by oil service firms and these firms don't sell equipment.


I think it is fair to say the US attempts to limit export of oil equipment but I would question how successful they are simply because the Chinese are experts at duplicating technology. All they need to do is get ahold of a piece of highend tech equipment and bingo a few months later they have a working copy. Patent infringement??? .....we don't need no stinking Patent infringement. Basically the Chinese aren't answering to anyone on this front. A good example is CNLC (Chinese national logging company) who suspiciously have wireline logging equipment identical to products for which Schlumberger and Halliburton hold patents....the software churns out identical plots as well. To the chagrin of Schlumberger, Baker etc CNLC is now competing with them in various countries.

My experience in Russia is more than 10 years ago but it was true at that time that high tech oilfield equipment was not readily available. It would be interesting to know if that were still the case.
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Russian government: 2006 oil price $40

Postby frankthetank » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 12:05:14

link

Demand destruction? Global economic meltdown?

Oil goes to $40 and i'm buying a H2! (J/K)
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Postby FrankRichards » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 12:28:31

What kind of oil? I think it's low anyway, but if he's talking Siberian heavy sour delivered by (high cost) railroad rather than pipeline, $40 would still imply WTI at $50 or so.
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