[Graeme]

Here's a further recent report on this issue from the IEA.

STATEMENT: IEA Report Finds "World Is Not On Track" to Meet Climate Goals

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency released a new report today, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, finding that global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2012 increased by 1.4 percent, reaching a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes. Energy-related emissions account for around two-thirds of total global greenhouse gas emissions. The report contains four specific recommendations to keep the world within 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise.

Following is a statement by Andrew Steer, President and CEO, World Resources Institute:

“Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are heading toward dangerous and unfamiliar territory. Projected temperature rise is approaching thresholds where the consequences would be truly dire. It’s not too late to prevent such an outcome, but the window to avoid dire impacts is closing quickly. These are some of the takeaways from the new report from the IEA, the autonomous organization focused on energy and economics, made up of 28 member countries.

“The common assumption is that action to reduce emissions is prohibitively expensive, but the evidence confirms that this is a flawed view. In fact, inaction is far more costly, risky and irresponsible. There are clear advantages to getting ahead and investing in low-carbon energy sources today, rather than trying to make corrections and retrofit equipment and infrastructure later on.

“The IEA’s new report offers affordable and common sense measures to rein in energy-related emissions. The core steps are to increase energy efficiency; limit emissions from coal-fired power plants; reduce leakage of methane from oil and gas production; and cut subsidies for fossil fuels. Importantly, the report finds that these steps can be achieved with no net economic cost.

[SeaGypsy]

Really a classic Jevons paradox is working against CO2 mitigation- reduction. We keep making more of more efficient machinery using more of the resource not less. There is nothing happening globally to halt the spread of personalized ICE transport, or of coal fired electricity. A small car costs only a few thousand dollars in China or India, a small motorbike a few hundred. China adds Australia's coal burning effort equivalent every 2 months, that's 6 more Australia's a year worth of CO2, buys more new cars than Europe, more new motorcycles than the Americas combined. They are also close to leading the race to be able to run a fleet on electricity- mostly via coal- so even the next generation moving beyond oil will still be pumping megatons of CO2.

[Graeme]

Details of the four IEA's policies, which they recommend should be done before 2020, are presented in the executive summary on pages 10 and 11 of their report (the authors are listed at the beginning). They do not mention ICE transport but do say that new sub-critical (least efficient) coal plants should not be built. I haven't read the entire report yet. I may have further comments later.

Here is how jevon's paradox is criticised in wiki:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal points have been raised against this argument. First, in the context of a mature market such as for oil in developed countries, the direct rebound effect is usually small, and so increased fuel efficiency usually reduces resource use, other conditions remaining constant.[6][9][10] Second, even if increased efficiency does not reduce the total amount of fuel used, there remain other benefits associated with improved efficiency. For example, increased fuel efficiency may mitigate the price increases, shortages and disruptions in the global economy associated with peak oil.[11] Third, environmental economists have pointed out that fuel use will unambiguously decrease if increased efficiency is coupled with an intervention (e.g. a green tax) that keeps the cost of fuel use the same or higher.[3]

[Graeme]

Having quickly read the entire report, I have to say that this is one of the more important reports that the IEA has published in recent years. I would hope that they repeat this style of report and publish an update say every five years to see how far we have progressed. I wrote a few notes as I read:

On pages 16, energy efficiency in vehicles, appliances, houses and industry was discussed, while on page 21, energy efficiency policies for US, EU, China and India were described.

On page 22, there is a discussion on carbon markets.

On page 26, I noted that China's emissions were 300 MT in 2012. Figure 1.9 shows declining emissions.

On page, 32, Australia, China, India Poland and South Africa are heavily reliant on coal to produce electricity.

On page 39, transport requires the largest investment of $6.3 trillion for more efficient or alternative vehicles.

From page 47 onwards, the four policies are discussed in more detail.

On page 75, the building blocks for steep abatement is described which includes adoption of renewables, nuclear and CCS.

On page 83, discussion about managing climate risks.

On page 97, economic impacts of climate policies are discussed.

Onpage 113, implications of delayed action.

[Graeme]

IEA Forecasts Sustained Energy Growth, But No 'Era of Oil Abundance'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) in November, looking twenty-plus years into our energy future. The trends it describes add nuance and detail to last year's projections, rather than upending them. Among other things they advance the expected date of global oil production leadership by the US to 2015 but suggest these gains may be short-lived and will not lead to "cheap oil." The IEA also envisions a reshuffling of the traditional roles of energy importing, exporting and consuming countries, against a backdrop of steadily increasing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

As in previous years, the new WEO examines the full range of energy supply and demand, with a focus this time on the sources and uses of petroleum, and the emergence of Brazil as an oil and energy power. While recognizing that they might be underestimating the potential for technology or additional resource discoveries to sustain the growth of "light tight oil", or shale oil, which together with oil sands and gas liquids is a primary driver of oil supply growth today, the IEA forecasts it would peak by 2025.

That puts the burden for supporting oil demand growth and the replacement of supplies lost to natural decline after 2025 back onto the Middle East producers. So in the IEA's view, OPEC's loss of market power appears temporary. A corollary to this is that the agency does not anticipate a sustained drop in oil prices, but rather a gradual increase of about 16% by 2035. That's because the unconventional oil helping to drive current market shifts is still relatively high-cost, compared to the large conventional oil resources of the Middle East.

Although the IEA expects the global oil market to grow from its present level of around 90 million barrels per day (MBD) to 101 MBD in 2035, that change would be less than their forecasted equivalent global growth in gas, renewables or even coal. The concentration of oil demand in transport and petrochemicals would also increase, while other uses contract slightly. This is consistent with last year's observation that the center of the oil market is shifting towards Asia, since around one-third of the total anticipated growth in oil demand is for diesel to fuel goods deliveries in Asia.

[sparky]

.
For information , it is quite common to have a tanker re-routed for spot market reason ,
the cargo might even change owner a couple of time
for long time contract it's not as bad but swap take place all the time
Azerbaijan sell oil to someone, delivery on the Baltic ,
it goes to Russia and Russia give some of its West Siberian crude as a swap

[Graeme]

IEA: ‘Transformation’ of power systems necessary for long-term renewables integration

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), titled “The Power of Transformation”, was released Wednesday, offering a look at what it will take for countries to achieve a sustainable, flexible and productive infrastructure of wind and solar PV energy production in the near future.

The IEA states that countries can implement high shares (as much as 30% of a nation’s annual electricity output) of wind and solar energy in power systems “at little additional cost in the long term". However, these costs are contingent upon how resilient these systems are and what plans are being implemented to develop organisational flexibility as time progresses.

Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the IEA, said: "Integrating high shares of variable renewables is really about transforming our power systems…In the classical approach, variable renewables are added to an existing system without considering all available options for adapting it as a whole. This approach misses the point. Integration is not simply about adding wind and solar on top of 'business as usual.’ We need to transform the system as a whole to do this cost-effectively."

When looking at the prospects of countries reaping the benefits of variable renewable energy (VRE), the report states that any nation can integrate 5-10% of VRE into their annual production output with little to no economic or technical challenges, as long as that country avoids “hot spots” of VRE deployment, uses VRE to stabilise the grid when necessary and effectively utilises VRE forecasts.

[Graeme]

For World Water Day, IEA shares in-depth analysis of energy sector’s use

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy sector already accounts for about 15% of the world’s total water use, so for World Water Day, on 22 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is sharing its most detailed analysis of the sector’s impact on water resources.

“Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource?”, a chapter from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO-2012), is now available for free on the IEA website. The analysis reveals how much water is used by various energy processes and assesses the sector’s vulnerabilities as rising population and growing economies constrain water resources around the globe.

“Water availability is a growing concern for energy, and assessing the energy sector’s use of water is important in an increasingly water-constrained world,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said. “The IEA’s in-depth analysis of the nexus of water and energy can help countries identify ways to use water most effectively and efficiently in energy production and consumption. Now the IEA is sharing that expertise with everyone.”

Water is critical for electricity generation as well as the extraction, transport and processing of fossil fuels, even the irrigation of crops that go into biofuels. Water shortages in India and the United States, among other countries, have limited energy output in the past two years, while the heavy use of water in unconventional oil and gas production has generated considerable public concern.

Moreover, the energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. In some regions, water constraints are already affecting the reliability of existing operations and they will introduce additional costs. The IEA analysis draws on the WEO-2012’s central policy scenario to show that expanding power generation and biofuels output underpins an 85% increase in the amount consumed (the volume of water that is not returned to its source after use) through to 2035.

“Since water and energy are essential resources, we need to find ways to ensure that use of one does not limit access to the other. As demand for both continues to increase, this will be a growing challenge and priority,” Ms. Van der Hoeven emphasised.

To download the WEO-2012 excerpt "Water for Energy: Is energy becoming a thirstier resource?", please click here.

[Keith_McClary]

World Water Day?

[rollin]

Excellent use of water Keith!!!

Apparently, like everything else, industrial civilization can overrun the available resource, in this case water. Of course agriculture is the big culprit.

I can almost guarantee that as water shortages precipitate it will be put on the backs of private citizens to conserve and do without instead of the industrial system.

[GHung]

rollin said: "...will be put on the backs of private citizens to conserve and do without instead of the industrial system."

Of course, there's little ground for complaint as long as they willingly and ravenously consume the products and energy produced by that industrial system. Even water issues in China can be, in part, related back to consumption in the west. But China will just build damns and 'steal' water from India and Bangladesh.... still, never enough. Just another case of humans consuming all available resources to further growth. Hard limits will be the cure for our lack of sapience.

Going more local, I've always questioned those who build their "sustainable communities" in places like like New Mexico where recurring drought is clearly the norm. Perhaps it's a way to impose limits on one's-self, via natural flows, much the way we off-gridders do with other forms of energy. It's a good lesson about distinguishing between needs and wants, one our species will learn the hard way.

Water is a sort of universal solvent, one we take for granted, and one reason I built near the top of a very wet watershed. About 321 million liters of rain falls on our property annually, but our water source was the first thing I developed when I decided to put down roots here. Seemed important at the time.

[Graeme]

How Power Generation Threatens Water Supplies, And Climate Change Threatens Both

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United Nations’ World Water Day 2014 is this Saturday. In its honor, the International Energy Agency is releasing its latest analysis of the intersection between the world’s power generation and its water use.
The numbers are pretty bracing.

Of the world’s freshwater supplies, 70 percent are locked up in the ice caps and glaciers, and almost another 30 percent are underground and hard to reach. Only about 0.3 percent is actually on the surface and easily accessible.

Of that measly 0.3 percent, only 11 percent goes to municipal uses, including direct consumption by humans. Seventy percent goes to agriculture and farming, and 11 percent goes to industrial uses. That last figure includes power generation, and it’s the intersection of energy and water with which the report is concerned.

Water is consumed at nearly every stage of energy production, especially when it comes to fossil fuels. It’s used in the hydraulic fluid in oil and natural gas fracking; it’s pumped into oil and gas wells to enhance recovery; it’s used to cut and suppress dust in coal mines; it’s used to wash coal before it’s burned; it’s used to make the slurry in which coal ash is stored after it’s burned; huge amounts are pulled in by coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants, both to cool things down and to generate the steam that spins the turbines; huge amounts are also consumed in the agricultural sector to produce biofuels; much smaller amounts are used for similar purposes for solar plants and concentrated solar power setups; and of course it’s stored in reservoirs for hydropower generation.

This also brings up the difference between withdrawal and consumption. Water that’s merely withdrawn for energy production is eventually returned to its source. Water that’s consumed is not. And the ranges of withdrawal and consumption are generally quite higher for nuclear and fossil fuel power than for wind or solar photovoltaics.



That’s a problem because parts of the world are currently hurting for water. Most of China and South Asia’s water resources are already “vulnerable,” India’s and some of Africa’s are “stressed,” and other parts of Africa are already suffering “absolute scarcity.” These areas are home to much of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'W')orld Water Day?

[Graeme]

Solar Power Is A Huge Water Saver (World Water Day Infographic)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very year on this day since 1993, the community of nations has focused on the importance of fresh water and advocated for the sustainable management of freshwater resources. Severe droughts experienced recently in places like the American West, the Horn of Africa, Russia, China, and Australia have highlighted the fact that humans are rapidly using up the world’s freshwater supplies—and when they’re gone, they’re gone. We are spending one of our most vital resources in greater volumes every day.


This year, the UN’s Water Day theme rests on a crucial link largely invisible to most of us: water and the production of energy.

“Water and energy are closely interlinked and interdependent. Energy generation and transmission requires utilization of water resources, particularly for hydroelectric, nuclear, and thermal energy sources. Conversely, about 8% of the global energy generation is used for pumping, treating, and transporting water to various consumers.”

One Block Off The Grid recently developed a cool infographic (below) to illustrate how energy production depends on water. It shows water use by four of the most common energy sources: coal, nuclear, oil and gas, and solar. Solar comes out on top big time.

[Graeme]

Water Microfiltration Technologies Answer Global Water Challenges

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ater demand is constantly rising to meet the needs of expanding industrial production, food and energy consumption. For many decades water resources have been withdrawn, wasted and polluted at elevated rates. In order to ensure an environmentally sustainable future, water use practices need to be changed. A more responsible individual approach to water saving and conservation is crucial, but at a global scale it is not enough. As usual, the solution is offered by the technologies of water treatment that allow its reuse in various fields: from industrial applications to drinking water supplies.

The evolution of microfiltration

In the last 30 years the evolution of water filtration, especially in the tertiary treatment section of the WWTP, received a remarkable impulse from agriculture, industrial activities, urban services and facilities. In these fields the main requirements are removal of suspended solids and hygienic quality. The interest in the prospects of water recycling and reuse, fueled research and development and brought on some important technological shifts.



In the past 10 years a new technology has reshaped the world of water microfiltration – the “dynamic-tangential filtration.”

How does it work? This kind of microfilter is equipped with filtering disk wheels in continuous rotation and the feeding of the water to be filtered is performed directly between the disk pairs. Solid particles pass through the meshes in oblique (tangential) directions, with a high speed. The filtering surface changes continuously as the filtering disks rotate. This leads to an increase of the filtration efficiency and prevents up to 10 microns diameter solid particles from passing through the filtering media. This new technology treats flow rates three times higher than the conventional filtering systems with immersed disks and intermittent operating. Even with the same installed filtering surface, the “dynamic-tangential filtration” working principle considerably reduces the machine’s footprint and maintenance and operating costs.

Thus, microfiltration technologies develop continuously in order to ensure the availability of water resources for the needs of agriculture, urban areas, industrial production and drinking water supply. Water reuse is to become a norm on a large scale as water recycling and reuse is the only way for a sustainable management of the world’s water.

[Graeme]

U.S. oil boom to extend into 2015, risks high: IEA

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil demand growth will accelerate next year as the world economy expands and will again be met by rising supplies from the United States and Canada, further eroding OPEC's market share, the West's energy watchdog said on Friday.

But the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that risks to oil production in several regions remained acute.

"Supply risks in the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high," the IEA said. "Oil prices remain historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet."

"Whether in crude or product markets, there is little room for complacency," it added.

North Sea Brent crude oil hit a nine-month high above $115 a barrel in June as a Sunni Islamist insurgency swept across northwestern Iraq, taking control of large parts of the oil producing country and shutting down its largest refinery.

The oil market has weakened over the last month but remains nervous about further supply shocks. Brent was trading at around $108.20 a barrel by 0730 GMT on Friday.

Making its first forecasts for 2015 in a monthly report, the IEA which advises major consuming nations on energy policy, said it expected global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up from 1.2 million this year.

"Newly industrialized and emerging market economies are once again forecast to lead the gains," it said.

The world's second largest oil consumer, China, will see oil demand growing by 4.2 percent, up from 3.3 percent this year, while the largest oil user, the United States, will only see gains of 0.2 percent to 19.1 million barrels per day, up from a growth of 0.6 percent this year.

[ROCKMAN]

Not to piss down their leg and call it rain but predicting a continuation of the boom for another 6 to 12 months isn't exactly sticking their necks out too far. LOL.

[rockdoc123]

Even then they may get a surprise. This past week has seen considerable softening in energy prices due mainly to less worry about Iraq oil and the oil previously locked up in Libya coming back on stream. With the US/Iran strife starting to ease off I wouldn't be surprised to see that oil come back on stream. If Brent drops below $100 (which is possible) then I think you could see WTI back in the eighties. Current production would continue but a lot of new projects would get shelved I think. That would mean a fairly quick drop in production (remember the steep initial declines in shales) to the point where the all the production is sitting in the flat part of the decline curve. If gas prices drop much more then the situation is exacerbated, given much of the shale liquids that produce at high rates have a lot of associated gas which currently can be sold at a decent price to help the economics out. And then the cycle begins again.

Just one view, of course, but geopolitics are not always predictable.

[BobInget]

This week's understatement: "but geopolitics are not always predictable".

Not kidding here, as World Cup 'play' ends Sunday (Germany 2/1 ?)
Arab, Persian Worlds could swing into action. Hundreds, perhaps, thousands of disenfranchised, unemployed, young men and a few women are preparing to defend Iraq, Syria and Gaza.
The war has spilled over into Lebanon. Israelis are shelling Lebanese border villages today.

ISIS has been busy recruiting World Wide and in Yemen, Libya, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Europeans are entering the war zone through Turkey. The lure, besides glory is oil money. When born onto a dead end world as these young men see it, this cluster F is their main chance
This is going to be a long drawn out conflict that could last years.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'T')his past week has seen considerable softening in energy prices due mainly to less worry about Iraq oil and the oil previously locked up in Libya coming back on stream.