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THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 15:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'D')emand is not the same as decline, demand can be adjusted as necessary to meet supply by the mechanism of price. Little changes in behavior


Except we live in a world where constant growth is a requirement of the the debt and growth-based fractional reserve banking system.


Do you also mean "except for all those times where we don't have constant growth and the economists call this recession, and when it happens the reserve banking system doesn't crash but handles it like it does everything else"?

Never really bought into the type of "constant growth" meme advocated by ralphy, way too many examples of non-growth, therefore negating the idea that infinite growth is somehow a "requirement" as you put it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
') Economic behaviour changes drastically when that system remains in place and we no longer have the energy required as the main driver to attain growth.


Fortunate then that shortage of energy isn't the issue at all. Unless someone wants to speculate on peak hydrogen for the local nuclear furnace from which all good things flow.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Sure, you can gain competitive advantage in certain niches, but the overall picture is one of economic decline.


That has been the claim by those who can only see decline for how long now? Reagan and his budget deficit? Not having enough money around to finance WWII? The Great Depression? The claim of oil running out soon...in 1886? The Tulip Mania in the 1600's? Lack of trees for the Romans to build more stuff with?

If your neighbor loses his job, its a recession. If you lose yours, its a depression. This topic is colored way too heavily by personal stories projected into whatever favorite statistic someone has. Underemployment, GDP, slow growth instead of high growth, of any commodity, the BDI, antibiotic resistant bugs, you name it, there has been and always will be something to point at and shout, OH NOES!!! Without defining the exact fear someone has, it is a difficult topic to even discuss.

Lets say I am a Mickey D's worker....darn right I'm worried about economic decline. Maybe I have no other skills, I live paycheck to paycheck, my fear is of ANYTHING changing, including the price of gas, it goes up, I eat less. Or the fear of a Boomer safely coddled in the US social security system and a pension in a strong company, their fear might only be massive inflation of the Wehrmacht kind, and nothing else. Without knowing what someone is actually afraid of related to their personal situation, it becomes difficult to assume your fear of "economic decline" will mean anything at all to me.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby davep » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 15:10:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'D')emand is not the same as decline, demand can be adjusted as necessary to meet supply by the mechanism of price. Little changes in behavior


Except we live in a world where constant growth is a requirement of the the debt and growth-based fractional reserve banking system.


Do you also mean "except for all those times where we don't have constant growth and the economists call this recession, and when it happens the reserve banking system doesn't crash but handles it like it does everything else"?

Never really bought into the type of "constant growth" meme advocated by ralphy, way too many examples of non-growth, therefore negating the idea that infinite growth is somehow a "requirement" as you put it.


Are you denying that fractional reserve exists and denying that it requires growth to service the debt? That's an interesting position that I'd be curious to learn about. Of course growth doesn't occur all the time, and when it doesn't our governments give billions of dollars to the private banks because the whole system depends on their liquidity to "get back to growth".
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 15:33:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'L')ittle changes in behavior, such as what has happened in the US since peak price in 2008, being but one example.

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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 15:44:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'N')ever really bought into the type of "constant growth" meme advocated by ralphy, way too many examples of non-growth, therefore negating the idea that infinite growth is somehow a "requirement" as you put it.


Incredible! An advocate for capital who labours under the fallacy that capital would willingly contemplate social relations without accumulation (which in effect what zero growth is).

Last time I checked, I don't think I met anyone who was in business for no return.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 16:13:31

Ad hom deleted, user permanently banned - davep
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 20:31:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')ure John, distract with an logical fallacy, an ad hom, red herring all rolled into one.


Demonstrate that you understand even the most basic of data, and we can talk. Launch into la-la land, and I certainly I am not going to spend any time on someone who doesn't live in the reality the rest of us do.

Oil production hasn't been declining as of late. I apologize for the inconvenience this poses for those who fell, hook line and sinker, for a bad idea. Maybe next time everyone will be a little less gullible, and pay a little more attention to those who knew it BEFORE reality had to demonstrate it to the slow learners and true believers? May the bell shaped curve be with you. Not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')
This is about peak oil mitigation, not my own 8-year-old drunken' passions. Are you a stalker by the way? I have no idea where you dragged that up from. Have any more in your closet?

It's funny re-visiting old wounds and life-styles. LOL


The search function is your friend. I recommend that and killing fewer brain cells, certainly proving you aren't even familiar with your own words reinforces the idea that the damage may already be done.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 22:29:01

I cannot respond to John's posts because he is in my ignore list.

FWIW, I don't see how examples counter aggregate information, as seen in constant GDP growth for the global economy:

"Projected GDP, 1990-2030"

http://rainforests.mongabay.com/energy/gdp.html

which should be the case given around a quadrillion dollars (notional value) in unregulated derivatives:

"Top Derivatives Expert Estimates Size of the Global Derivatives Market at $1,200 Trillion Dollars … 20 Times Larger than the Global Economy"

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/05/ ... arket.html

leading to demand destruction due to fallout from financial speculation coupled with increased consumption due to the same:

"Peak Oil Demand is Already a Huge Problem"

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/pe ... e-problem/

and the latter expected as oil is needed to ensure continuous economic growth:

"How much oil growth do we need to support world GDP growth?"

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/07/18/ho ... dp-growth/

Given a 2-pct increase in energy demand the last three decades, as explained in this report:

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publi ... /weo-2010/

we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years to maintain growth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK730U0Q4NU

And given a growing global middle class:

"The rise of the global middle class"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22956470

definitely more.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 03:09:15

I find it interesting that so many folks, even intelligent ones, cannot connect the dots between economic growth and the need for abundant cheap energy. Without the cheap energy part our growth based systems falter. Right now that cheap energy means Oil, plain and simple.

WTI went over 100$/bbl today.

The other difficult to grasp part is that our fractional reserve banking system propped up by fiat money REQUIRES the promise of economic growth for it to work long term. It seems to follow that some of, if not a larger part, of the economic growth problems the planet is feeling may actually be related to our current source of cheap energy becoming a "bit" more expensive. Its a difficult premise to deny.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 04:09:29

.
Another thing which get me smirking is the obsession with the price at the bowser
must be the American fetish with individual motorcar .
guess what , lot of countries are thriving with gas in the 20$ a gallon price
energy for driving to the shops is irrelevant but for Walmart management
a country energy is much more than that ,
it's the input price for manufacturing , processing and distributing
people cars are an icing on top
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 07:13:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Another thing which get me smirking is the obsession with the price at the bowser
must be the American fetish with individual motorcar .
guess what , lot of countries are thriving with gas in the 20$ a gallon price
energy for driving to the shops is irrelevant but for Walmart management
a country energy is much more than that ,
it's the input price for manufacturing , processing and distributing
people cars are an icing on top

All of which proves that there is a very long way to go down before society collapses, the sweet trolley will just lose an item every few years.

The current trend appears to be more and more online shopping and ultimately that will reduce fuel consumption as one delivery van can take the place of about 30 individual cars driving to two or three shopping centres. Almost all of the supermarkets here will now do home delivery and the costs work out at about the same as it would if you drove in and collected it yourself but a great saving on time.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 07:42:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Another thing which get me smirking is the obsession with the price at the bowser
must be the American fetish with individual motorcar .
guess what , lot of countries are thriving with gas in the 20$ a gallon price
energy for driving to the shops is irrelevant but for Walmart management
a country energy is much more than that ,
it's the input price for manufacturing , processing and distributing
people cars are an icing on top

All of which proves that there is a very long way to go down before society collapses, the sweet trolley will just lose an item every few years.

The current trend appears to be more and more online shopping and ultimately that will reduce fuel consumption as one delivery van can take the place of about 30 individual cars driving to two or three shopping centres. Almost all of the supermarkets here will now do home delivery and the costs work out at about the same as it would if you drove in and collected it yourself but a great saving on time.


Not quite. Online shopping translates into 24/7 access to inventory which translates into greater levels of commodification. There are no outs in capitalism....it is headed in one direction. Resource exhaustion. And the pace naturally picks up as the hunger for accumulation (by the capitalist) deepens.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 07:52:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Another thing which get me smirking is the obsession with the price at the bowser
must be the American fetish with individual motorcar .
guess what , lot of countries are thriving with gas in the 20$ a gallon price
energy for driving to the shops is irrelevant but for Walmart management
a country energy is much more than that ,
it's the input price for manufacturing , processing and distributing
people cars are an icing on top

All of which proves that there is a very long way to go down before society collapses, the sweet trolley will just lose an item every few years.

The current trend appears to be more and more online shopping and ultimately that will reduce fuel consumption as one delivery van can take the place of about 30 individual cars driving to two or three shopping centres. Almost all of the supermarkets here will now do home delivery and the costs work out at about the same as it would if you drove in and collected it yourself but a great saving on time.


Not quite. Online shopping translates into 24/7 access to inventory which translates into greater levels of commodification. There are no outs in capitalism....it is headed in one direction. Resource exhaustion. And the pace naturally picks up as the hunger for accumulation (by the capitalist) deepens.

Wow AD that's one hell of a tangent you've gone off there...
In that case, they'll deliver for "free" to keep the wheels turning.
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Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 08:00:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Another thing which get me smirking is the obsession with the price at the bowser
must be the American fetish with individual motorcar .
guess what , lot of countries are thriving with gas in the 20$ a gallon price
energy for driving to the shops is irrelevant but for Walmart management
a country energy is much more than that ,
it's the input price for manufacturing , processing and distributing
people cars are an icing on top

All of which proves that there is a very long way to go down before society collapses, the sweet trolley will just lose an item every few years.

The current trend appears to be more and more online shopping and ultimately that will reduce fuel consumption as one delivery van can take the place of about 30 individual cars driving to two or three shopping centres. Almost all of the supermarkets here will now do home delivery and the costs work out at about the same as it would if you drove in and collected it yourself but a great saving on time.


Not quite. Online shopping translates into 24/7 access to inventory which translates into greater levels of commodification. There are no outs in capitalism....it is headed in one direction. Resource exhaustion. And the pace naturally picks up as the hunger for accumulation (by the capitalist) deepens.

Wow AD that's one hell of a tangent you've gone off there...
In that case, they'll deliver for "free" to keep the wheels turning.


Worldwide household access 24/7 to inventory is "tangent" reasoning! Have you even read my numerous posts on the structure of capitalism!

The rest of you comment is indecipherable. There are no free rides in capitalism.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 08:05:23

The word is "free" not free.

edit: as in the cost of transport will be hidden in the costs of the products as opposed to being a visible "delivery charge".

As for 24/7 consumerism, well that has been around ever since the first on-line shop went on-line.

All I was referring to was the reduction in fuel use by switching from individuals going to the shops in their own vehicles and doing it on-line and getting the stuff delivered to their houses.

The (anti)capitalists stuff is the tangent that I was referring to.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sat 28 Dec 2013, 08:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')he word is "free" not free.

edit: as in the cost of transport will be hidden in the costs of the products as opposed to being a visible "delivery charge".

As for 24/7 consumerism, well that has been around ever since the first on-line shop went on-line.

All I was referring to was the reduction in fuel use by switching from individuals going to the shops in their own vehicles and doing it on-line and getting the stuff delivered to their houses.

The (anti)capitalists stuff is the tangent that I was referring to.


Online shopping as we know it is the tip of the iceberg.It will magnify returns from consumer spending manyfold above the current physical process as it fully globalises. In addition the pressure to continuously consume will become relentless.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 11 Jul 2015, 01:03:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'b')ump

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