by The_Toecutter » Fri 13 Jan 2006, 01:13:35
What's really happening is the oil companies are stalling alternatives so as to keep the production plateau extended out as long as possible(with ups and downs), and to keep the crash as hard as possible. This will in-turn maximize their profits by allowing price increases during the plateau while keeping production maximized, while the hard crash will cause the amount of profits per barrel to rise even more than they would otherwise due to supply and demand used as an excuse, and damned be the consequences to the whole of society. But the cornucopians refuse to acknowledge peak oil's existence when it is a very real problem, staring them in the face, while the doomers are correct in its possible effects and time scale. There is of course some intermittant price gouging(ie. Katrina), in which demand is used as an excuse to jack up prices even when the cost to make and refine each barrel doesn't increase, something most doomers ignore, yet cornucopians insist is true. A good portion of that money is really lining the pockets of a certain few oil men, and they damned well intend to keep that money flowing, and even increase it. No matter the consequences.
The real truth isn't really between the two theories, but more likely of a combination of them, contradictory it may seem.
The above article is quite bunk. Peak oil is *not* a scam, it is real, and may be occuring now, if it hasn't already occured. However, one cannot ignore the profits seen during Rita and Katrina, two spikes on the graph, nor is it prudent for one to ignore just how manufactured of a crisis peak oil may be due to the alternatives available that are denied to prospective consumers(by the various entrenched industries and federal governments benefitting from tax revenue) so as to maximize economic growth. Would the oil consumption amounts of today be addressed and subsequently reduced, and our reliance upon oil greatly eliminated, an oil shortage wouldn't be anywhere near the problem it is today, if even a problem at all. But to address this consumption and reduce it would mean to power down, to shrink the economy. The corporations do not like this, especially the oil industry. Politics, and also the oil industry, play a large role in just what alternatives are available to us today and what individuals have to do in order to have access to these alternatives. Often, building their own and putting forth a high amount of money up front to save in the long term, due to less resource/labor-intensive means often being cheaper per unit output, from that alternative. Cheaper per unit output, in both resources and thus money placed forward, results in less money to the economy for the same living standard. Less money into the economy, regardless of living standard, is the basis of a powerdown. We can either powerdown in an organized fashion that would result in decentralization and keep much of our living standards while consuming less(the wealthy elite would be the ones to lose due to decreased percentage of the world's available wealth flowing to them), or nature can do it for us and bring us to worse than 3rd world living standards(while the wealthy elite would gain due to increased percentage of the world's available wealth flowing to them).
However, with a hard crash, another dynamic is introduced. If nature powers down for us, this will destabilize our civilization. The elites do not like this, but are eying an increase to their wealth. This is where totalitarianism comes in. To keep a revolt from happening occuring, the power elite resorts to ever increasing control over the individual person. A hard crash will necessitate rigourour control over our daily lives if civilization is to not collapse, and they would think nothing of eroding our freedoms to benefit themselves, even at the risk of the process being undermined and all of civilization collapsing anyway(which is inevitable with a continued crisis anyway, but the elites would rather leave that to their descendants).
Quite a conundrum we are in. We have the solutions to this problem of peak oil, even today, powerdown combined with alternative energy, but the power elite refuses to work on it, having mostly stripped the individual from their role as a descision maker and transferred their role into a consumer. By limiting the market to the choices the power elite approves of, the consumers power is limited and can only be reclaimed if they seek to rid themselves from the greater society as much as possible, to become self reliant. But with prices being inversely variant as production volume increases, and production volume of alternatives limited, the cost of being self sufficient becomes expensive up front, something most do not have the means to achieve(unless they take drastic reductions to living standards, the very unpleasant way to power down and become self sufficient. Many who are now homeless did it that way, some by their own choice, most not by choice).
With no one implementing alternatives on a massive scale, and with the decision makers in our political process(power elite) set against powering down voluntarily and decentralizing society, we will crash and burn unless we address this problem immediately. We may still have time, but with no one acting, each day that passes will make the powerdown we do see, one imposed by nature instead of our own will, that much WORSE.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson