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THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 11:46:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Nothing short of a miracle can avoid the juggernaut speeding in our directions and roughly 3 decades ahead. In fact both opposing forces are gathering speed for a showdown of epic proportions and denial is a central facet of that approaching crisis.


Yes. We know. This is what peak oil was supposed to cause. Sometime last decade. And 4 decades ago we were supposed to be running out, and polluting ourselves to death, and waiting around for Ehrlich's starvation games to arrive before the year 2000. And now you say it is 3 decades ahead? You know what "kick the can" means, right? And why folks are always being forced to do it?
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 16:27:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'F')ox News ... they apparently knew better than all peak oilers combined [and] contemporaneous to this thread ...

[In my day job/life] I run a day trading business and a tax consultancy. Both at the heart of BAU.

Its this exposure [to these Business As Usual vocations of delusion] that convinces me that the system is going to go through increasingly more devastating crises before collapsing in on itself (marked by irreversible consumer deflation and energy inflation). ...

denial is a central facet


Good but disjointed points.

I'm trying to parse the different topics you raise in the above:

1) Cognitive dissonance of having a BAU day job plus being PO aware?


Waffle. People live by bread, not waffles. If you want change, you tackle the social economy. However expecting people to magnanimously I haven't a clue what, is half baked waffle.

In the meantime, those of us who have to pay the rent but understand the nature of the landlord, continue to try and spread our knowledge to our fellow brethren (whom we don't expect to suddenly quit their day jobs The critical numbers are needed before anything can start to happen. That understanding has to be at the level of the social economy however. Otherwise it is pretty much a waste of time. People sense this Little baby steps.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 16:28:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Nothing short of a miracle can avoid the juggernaut speeding in our directions and roughly 3 decades ahead. In fact both opposing forces are gathering speed for a showdown of epic proportions and denial is a central facet of that approaching crisis.


Yes. We know. This is what peak oil was supposed to cause. Sometime last decade. And 4 decades ago we were supposed to be running out, and polluting ourselves to death, and waiting around for Ehrlich's starvation games to arrive before the year 2000. And now you say it is 3 decades ahead? You know what "kick the can" means, right? And why folks are always being forced to do it?


They're impatient for change. These forces beat to their own clock though.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 16:32:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')They're impatient for change. These forces beat to their own clock though.


Clocks? That implies these folks are getting it wrong by minutes or hours. More like centuries and millennium.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 16:49:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')They're impatient for change. These forces beat to their own clock though.


Clocks? That implies these folks are getting it wrong by minutes or hours. More like centuries and millennium.


Nope. With the advent of the WTO with the fall of the USSR, that clock started ticking. If you will note, we are on the upturn with growth in global consumer spending (Bernanke is being feted for being a saviour at the moment.) This is the last stage in capitalist development on the globe. Now we are counting down to:

1 Peak resourcing. If in the interim, we find the means to mine off planet the next trigger takes precedence:

2 Climate and planetary despoilation.

This will play out by mid century no later.

They jumped the gun but basically are correct.

Centuries. Not a hope.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 19:12:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')They're impatient for change. These forces beat to their own clock though.


Clocks? That implies these folks are getting it wrong by minutes or hours. More like centuries and millennium.


Nope. With the advent of the WTO with the fall of the USSR, that clock started ticking. If you will note, we are on the upturn with growth in global consumer spending (Bernanke is being feted for being a saviour at the moment.) This is the last stage in capitalist development on the globe. Now we are counting down to:

1 Peak resourcing. If in the interim, we find the means to mine off planet the next trigger takes precedence:

2 Climate and planetary despoilation.

This will play out by mid century no later.

They jumped the gun but basically are correct.

Centuries. Not a hope.


edit:

In fact I can guarantee that terminal crises will onset by 2060, with economic chaos and the first glimmerings of a climate envelope that has flipped its range and is in fractal territory. Thats how sure I am that the onset of the globalisation of capitalism marks a loss in control as to what we can do with it.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Sun 22 Dec 2013, 21:47:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Waffle. ...

In the meantime, those of us who have to pay the rent ....

... continue to try and spread our knowledge to our fellow brethren (whom we don't expect to suddenly quit their day jobs ... critical numbers are needed ....


I have to pay the rent too.
Not about to quit my BAU day job either.

Will adults accept the theory and change?
I don't think so.
I've given up trying to convert the nonconvertible. Too many glazed over eyes and replays of that adage about the one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind being told he is crazy.

The only hope is the younger generations and them becoming educated on what "we" truly are: irrational animals with overly exuberant beliefs in our infallibility.

The probable end story is not a happy one. And yet we beat our oars against the currents.


If I believed that our number was up, I would not be here. I would be out partying it up.

I think we can try to make a difference, yet. Thats the diff between you and I.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Mon 23 Dec 2013, 08:52:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') think we can try to make a difference. That's the diff between you and I.


Not a difference.

I too believe we can "try" to make a difference --at least to fight the good fight. :)


Yeap. People have been through much worse and stood up on their hind legs. And ignorance was as rife then as it is now, probably worse. You got stewed if you smelt like a wizard.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby JV153 » Thu 26 Dec 2013, 15:55:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')enturies? Millennium? LOL

Image


That graph includes NGL, which isn't oil.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 26 Dec 2013, 16:25:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JV153', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')enturies? Millennium? LOL

Image


That graph includes NGL, which isn't oil.


Natural gas liquids, meaning propane and butane, are the same as liquified petroleum gas, propane and butane. The only difference is natural gas liuids come from gas wells and liquified petoleum gas comes from oil wells.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 00:39:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')enturies? Millennium? LOL

Image


See that red part? It started right about the time peak oil was supposed to happen, and the natural gas cliff was scheduled to occur.

and yet here we all still are....I am heating my home nicely with natural gas, it is powering local freight delivery and I can buy gasoline or diesel by the tanker truck full should I desire to start a huge fire in my backyard just because I feel like being wasteful.

An amazingly different world than one where we were supposed to be praying for our very survival without fuels...by 2006 or so. I wonder who ever might have made a mistake so large this way that we should all treat it like a lesson for being just as silly the next time??!!

Image
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 09:25:53

Anyone who thinks the world is well supplied with oil today is delusional. Weren't we supposed to be approaching 100 million barrels per day of production this year?

Image

The above is from CERA and tries to make the Campbell prediction to be a joke. Well, consider:

Image

So it is the Campbell prediction that conforms to reality, i.e. 75 million barrels of crude + CC per day and the Yergin predictions are wildly over the top.

(to preempt the expected BS, it is clear from the CERA graph that they are using crude + CC and not total liquids since the 2005 production is around 75 mbpd.)

Production in the US is increasing thanks to tight oil and we'll see how long that lasts, but at the same time there is a lot of production decline around the world. The USA is not living in an economic realm detached from the rest of the world. So jumping around like a chimp and proclaiming the end of peak oil and American energy independence is just retarded. The US is still importing oil and there is no indication that this will change to a net export.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 10:22:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')enturies? Millennium? LOL

Image



It occurs to me that even if his graph is exactly on target tight oil is going to peak in under a decade and all the while conventional oil is continuing its remorseless decline. Meanwhile on the rst of the planet not exploiting fracked tight oil that conventional decline keeps adding more and more demand every year.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 10:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '.').. An amazingly different world than one where we were supposed to be praying for our very survival without fuels...by 2006


No one said we will be without fuels.


True. The world was supposed to come to an end because one afternoon, there would only be a little less of them. Entirely validates the idea much better.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('step back', '
')It was well understood we had coal, tar sands, and much much more to burn (i.e. deep sea methane hydrates).

It's just that none could foresee we would actually be that stupid.
But then again, here we are.


In 2008 the IEA was quantifying the use of such fuels, and for obvious reasons. And then it turned out that we really didn't need to concern ourselves with them, or the field declines of 5%+ that Hook was busy building hysteria over, or the finding new Saudi Arabias and whatnot because things just didn't work out as planned by the all decline, all the time folks. Funny it worked that way, just like it did in the early-90's when Colin started claiming the same things.

You really would think that the "fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you" adage would apply.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 10:56:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'A')nyone who thinks the world is well supplied with oil today is delusional. Weren't we supposed to be approaching 100 million barrels per day of production this year?


No, we weren't. Colin Campbell said we are supposed to be approaching 32 million/day. We are just over 90, so he was wrong by about 58 million/day and whoever claimed 100 missed by 8.

Gee....so Colin was 700% wronger than the folks who said 100....we should really pay closer to attention to the folks who only missed by a little I guess.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby John_A » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 11:03:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')It occurs to me that even if his graph is exactly on target tight oil is going to peak in under a decade and all the while conventional oil is continuing its remorseless decline.


As it was before you were born, so shall it be tomorrow. Welcome to the most basic fact of the oil field.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')Meanwhile on the rst of the planet not exploiting fracked tight oil that conventional decline keeps adding more and more demand every year.


Demand is not the same as decline, demand can be adjusted as necessary to meet supply by the mechanism of price. Little changes in behavior, such as what has happened in the US since peak price in 2008, being but one example. UPS fuel switching to natural gas being another. GTL plants being built in Ohio to take advantage of the cheap and plentiful natural gas yet another.

The best prep is to not be so dependent on liquid fuels, thus granting yourself an economic advantage over your competitor, be it your neighbor and you being able to buy an ATV for fun while he is not, having to fuel his monster truck, or the other business down the street that is not so wise on how to control their costs, and suddenly became less profitable than yours.
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Re: THE Peak Oil is a Hoax Thread (merged)

Unread postby davep » Fri 27 Dec 2013, 14:10:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'D')emand is not the same as decline, demand can be adjusted as necessary to meet supply by the mechanism of price. Little changes in behavior


Except we live in a world where constant growth is a requirement of the the debt and growth-based fractional reserve banking system. Economic behaviour changes drastically when that system remains in place and we no longer have the energy required as the main driver to attain growth.

Sure, you can gain competitive advantage in certain niches, but the overall picture is one of economic decline.
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