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What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 01:20:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')As you can see, this is very contemporary and has nothing to do with coal mines or Queen Victoria. Now I must really call it a day or SG will be spitting chips. :roll:


I have a personal criteria when valuing posts. One of those is if they make me laugh they are worthy :)

Besides that AD your summary statement here is noted and ultimately has to be considered in any steady state economic system that external constraints would drive us toward.

Where I would debate you is your premise that capitalism in any reconfigured form will inevitably break free to globalize again.

I need to first draw an analogy to religions. All monotheist and eastern religions have contributed zilch in offering humans moral or ethical commandments or tenants around humans not exceeding their carrying capacity. Because 2000 or whenever years when all these religions where formed the biosphere as a concept did not exist because like oxygen when it is present and healthy it is invisible. It was a non issue.
Like oxygen, take it away and you notice it. Today for the first time in human history, on a global scale, the biosphere has emerged as a concept, has become visible, because it is damaged. For this reason we cannot blame religions on their failure because they never had a biosphere to contemplate.

So be it with capitalism. All these environmental externalities that have been exploited to allow this accumulation has been done in what up to now has been a biosphere that has not raised any objections. The social and environmental cost of private enterprise has never been in the equation. That is about to radically change. Capitalism will be forced to confront what has been essentially an exploitable, invisible biosphere.

So what becomes of capitalism? You dogmatically conclude that it will with certainty doom itself. I am not quite so black and white. We cannot be sure as to its demise. We may well end up with an economic system that maintains a much reduced wealth accumulation severely constrained within the growing needs of a damaged biosphere and the growing needs of a hugely disenfranchised human population.

A huge shift will no doubt be required to care for the needs of the many and our damaged biosphere while we maintain enough of individual incentives of material advantage and wealth to insure the required innovation and investments to heal what we have damaged.

It certainly means a huge reduction in the disparity of rich and poor. Perhaps part of the solution is that we redefine what wealth is for the elite. Instead of stuff accumulation how about their status becoming defined as becoming patrons of the common good. We are creatures of status more than wealth accumulation. IF we define status away from stuff we can still have an elite on whom we pin medals and badges and make parades exulting them for their good works in how they apply their wealth.

I am an environmentalist, not an economist or historian. I am probably not the one to debate you here and from what I have stated here you will certainly come back pointing out the fallacy. On this point of the future of capitalism I would prefer to be a passive reader of others debating you. I admit it is not my area of expertise. But having said that I can still recognize when someone is stuck in a dogmatic prison of their own device.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 01:25:46

AD- my commune will have ethnobotanicals- lots of them from all over the world- as well as competing with yours for the annual local brewers cup :P Should your commune go to war with mine over such trivial matters- your mob will have the jitters and hangovers while mine works with the animal spirits and can stay awake for days on nothing but holy smoke and water. Keep this in mind and keep the battles to the brewer's Cup :)
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 01:51:19

Ibon

Capitalism is quite specific to the existing social relations. Fundamental to those social relations is the fragmenting of community to the base unit, the consuming individual. Then there is the endless quest to accumulate exponentially...and the exponential use of resources. Finally, all of this is gathered around the organisation of the masses as units of labour and consumerism, on a global scale. All of this emerges as infinite growth.

Were a set of social relations emerge to say underwrite small business with say a limited appetite for profit as a consequence of say limited energy for example, this would be something else and not capitalism. The supporting culture would emerge to underscore the limited profit rationale so as this would function as a system. These arrangements would reflect the material conditions that gives rise to them just as capitalism reflects its roots.....colonial era England when a whole new world of markets and resources were to be had and the sky was the limit.

How that would look is anyones guess but anything is possible. But it would not be capitalism. This paragraph neatly sums up my misgivings with any system involving profit, no matter how small:

It is also possible (at least in theory) to have a free market economy that is not capitalist. Such a 'market economy' would involve farmers, artisans and shopkeepers each producing a particular product that they would exchange via the medium of money. There would be no profit-making and no class division—just independent producers exchanging goods for their mutual benefit. But it is doubtful whether such an economy has ever existed. The nearest that may have come to it would have been in some of the early colonial settlements in North America. Some Greens wish to see a return to this kind of economy. We do not think that it is a viable alternative for modern society. Such a system would almost inevitability lead to capital accumulation and profit making—the definitive features of capitalism.

http://www.worldsocialism.org/articles/ ... talism.php
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:09:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')How that would look is anyones guess but anything is possible. But it would not be capitalism. This paragraph neatly sums up my misgivings with any system involving profit, no matter how small:


Yes. Perhaps part of the reason for your misgivings is because all we have seen of capitalism has been the last couple of hundred years when it existed with a resource base that allowed unhindered exponential growth.

It remains to be seen how it will evolve when the social and environmental constraints cause these long disregarded externalities to force capitalism to adapt.

I would say that the complete disregard for externalities is a result not of the system of capitalism but rather the environment that it has existed in up until now. Which is about to change.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:17:37

Which is where you and I part company.

Capitalism in its last days will be red in tooth and claw as regards a whole range of issues including env ironmental constraints. I suspect that the favoured fall back will be geo-engineering with BAU. Someone on here was wishful enough to suggest that authoritarian forms will not be resorted to. Anything will be resorted to, to preserve the status quo. Many a cherished hope will be shattered and that is where systems are tested and change...this has always be the sorts of precusors to the change of human systems.

My only proviso to this is the climate and whether we will have a room to negotiate a new way of life. I am increasingly doubtful.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')How that would look is anyones guess but anything is possible. But it would not be capitalism. This paragraph neatly sums up my misgivings with any system involving profit, no matter how small:


Yes. Perhaps part of the reason for your misgivings is because all we have seen of capitalism has been the last couple of hundred years when it existed with a resource base that allowed unhindered exponential growth.

It remains to be seen how it will evolve when the social and environmental constraints cause these long disregarded externalities to force capitalism to adapt.

I would say that the complete disregard for externalities is a result not of the system of capitalism but rather the environment that it has existed in up until now. Which is about to change.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:31:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', '
')And that's what keeps me coming back to peakoil.com, the question of what happens when one key resource, not too inaccurately called the master resource, or one of them, begins to rise in cost,


I wanted to get back to a point that is worth repeating in reference to how we regard Peak Oil as the Master Resource and from there sometimes conclude that its decline will be the punctuated event that will cause a catalyst toward transition.

We should be careful about this assumption. Because fossil fuels are the source of the growth to where we got to does not mean that the decline itself will be the trigger of change. This is perhaps obvious for many but worth repeating.

Fossil fuels have allowed us such exponential growth in population, biosphere degradation, globalization, technological advances, a host of resource constraints, a global financial and economic system deep in unknown territory, migration of pathogens and invasive species, etc.
In other words we have a world today that is novel, anomalous to anything in the past, fueled by oil. But any of these anomalous examples could be triggers or catalysts of change. Climate change is just the most often discussed example.

Oil is the enabler but its decline is only one of the disablers of what we have created. Only one of many. Stating the obvious perhaps but an important point to repeat here especially for those here who are new to the concept of Peak Oil.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:42:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')nything will be resorted to


Perhaps here we agree. See AD, I have found a crack even in your certainty of capitalism preserving the status quo. For if as you say we will resort to anything to preserve what we define as the status quo than that must include adapting to where the status quo is about to drift to.

External physical events and not ideology will cause the status quo to drift into territory where even capitalism will be forced to capitulate.

You put the ideology of capitalism above the physical feedbacks about to knock us upside the head. I think you have it completely backward.

Ideology always follows the limits of the environment, or the lack thereof, not the other way around.

That explains capitalism's trajectory up until today.....
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:50:23

Dialectic forces have always driven human systems (Kissinger has been a great architect for dialectic materialism in the ME. Where he has got the dynamic arse about face is failing to understand that you cannot make it happen. Material conditions dictate how it unfolds. One can only be prepared for the kickback.)

That will not change here. The only advice I can suggest is to be prepared to be disappoionted. But out of that arises opportunity (subject of course to the climate elephant.)
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 02:55:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', ' ')The only advice I can suggest is to be prepared to be disappoionted.


You know who you are talking to right? I am the misanthrope patiently awaiting the pathogens. Worshipping the Overshoot Predator.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 03:06:31

Lol. I don't really keep track of who is what here. I tend to come on here, post and go. The odd day I will hang around to complete an exercise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', ' ')The only advice I can suggest is to be prepared to be
disappoionted.


You know who you are talking to right? I am the misanthrope patiently awaiting the pathogens. Worshipping the Overshoot Predator.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 03:10:00

I agree with AD that ff are a multiplier, where I think we differ is that IMHO the power of the multiplier has become in some ways more critical than labour itself. I believe that the idea that post peak the world can continue to create the levels of surplus we currently enjoy by employing more people to replace our ff slaves is unrealistic.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 03:52:20

Therein lies the rub Quinny. Reality is and has been for quite some time- we can easily feed clothe and shelter humanity at a nominal level- if the richer percentiles can be satisfied with a bit less. Are we going to have a more equitable foundation over time or less?

Some huge topics being just touched on here. Back to the OP for just a moment (lolz)- this is why I keep coming back- These truly fundamental questions which are so key to how we live and who we choose to live as in this strange and so oft paradoxical existence- a lot of folks here 'get' this stuff and can hold a conversation about it. A rare and precious ability I value very much in my fellow posters here. (Yep even you AD :razz: )
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 05:19:01

Capitalism has particular characteristics. Slavery is not one of them. Labur value extraction contemplates a sufficient exchange to facilitate the market. ME economies which still exhibit certain medieval characteristics are still largely feudal (for example the rules on usury.) Any post capitalist economy based on the use of slaves will be feudal and largely non-accumulative. Nazi Germany for example, was regressively feudal although Hitler characterised it as bourgeoisie socialism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') agree with AD that ff are a multiplier, where I think we differ is that IMHO the power of the multiplier has become in some ways more critical than labour itself. I believe that the idea that post peak the world can continue to create the levels of surplus we currently enjoy by employing more people to replace our ff slaves is unrealistic.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 17:02:20

I wasn't suggesting slavery, but the use of technology and ff increases productivity to a level where goods and services are produced by a small fraction of the population. When we then hit a decline how can the current levels of (unreal) capital be generated. At that stage I believe the 'financial' economy will have to suddenly align itself with the 'real' economy which could cause it to break.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'C')apitalism has particular characteristics. Slavery is not one of them. Labur value extraction contemplates a sufficient exchange to facilitate the market. ME economies which still exhibit certain medieval characteristics are still largely feudal (for example the rules on usury.) Any post capitalist economy based on the use of slaves will be feudal and largely non-accumulative. Nazi Germany for example, was regressively feudal although Hitler characterised it as bourgeoisie socialism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') agree with AD that ff are a multiplier, where I think we differ is that IMHO the power of the multiplier has become in some ways more critical than labour itself. I believe that the idea that post peak the world can continue to create the levels of surplus we currently enjoy by employing more people to replace our ff slaves is unrealistic.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 18:23:30

1 All this talk of machinery and yet no one asks, why are they continuing to outsource to high labour availability, low wage zones. Machines will play a part where they are able to be applied (as they always have) but at the end of the day, until I see capitalists actually dispense with labour, I will stick with the facts. The labour situation remains classically exploitative...to the degree that they have to now put out suicide nets for these poor sods in places such as China. Even the services economy remains dependent on low wage India.

2 Within that context, I therefore contend that accumulation post collapse will fail due to the close links between labour's component of value and its consumerism...something that neutralises slavery. Feudalism will well re-emerge but capitalism will have hit the buffers.

It is in this context that Marx contemplates the possibility of a return to collectivism......which is not entirely out of the realms of reasonableness....subject of course to the risk posed by climate change.

However, these speculations about machines are just that. Until I see clear evidence of an abandonment of labour to the degree that outsourcing human labour disappears, I prefer the labour theory of value.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') wasn't suggesting slavery, but the use of technology and ff increases productivity to a level where goods and services are produced by a small fraction of the population. When we then hit a decline how can the current levels of (unreal) capital be generated. At that stage I believe the 'financial' economy will have to suddenly align itself with the 'real' economy which could cause it to break.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'C')apitalism has particular characteristics. Slavery is not one of them. Labur value extraction contemplates a sufficient exchange to facilitate the market. ME economies which still exhibit certain medieval characteristics are still largely feudal (for example the rules on usury.) Any post capitalist economy based on the use of slaves will be feudal and largely non-accumulative. Nazi Germany for example, was regressively feudal although Hitler characterised it as bourgeoisie socialism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') agree with AD that ff are a multiplier, where I think we differ is that IMHO the power of the multiplier has become in some ways more critical than labour itself. I believe that the idea that post peak the world can continue to create the levels of surplus we currently enjoy by employing more people to replace our ff slaves is unrealistic.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 20:31:12

It still needs people to run the machines.

For the first time in my life I am currently working on a production line. The factory is closing soon and the jobs will disappear from our region. The reason. Firstly the parent group is shifting some production from Western Europe to Poland it does however need to keep close to the markets, so keeps it's expensive labour on in one factory which is installing 8 million euros of advanced machinery which will increase productivity significantly. The same machinery which is being installed in Poland which by the way is not actually offering the cheapest wage rates available.

I don't dispute that labour is still key, but contend that resources and oil in particular could potentially cause the fall of capitalism.

Not suggesting it's happening anytime soon, but imagine for a moment that we did fall off the plateau, are you suggesting that Capitalism would survive the ensuing crisis?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '1') All this talk of machinery and yet no one asks, why are they continuing to outsource to high labour availability, low wage zones. Machines will play a part where they are able to be applied (as they always have) but at the end of the day, until I see capitalists actually dispense with labour, I will stick with the facts. The labour situation remains classically exploitative...to the degree that they have to now put out suicide nets for these poor sods in places such as China. Even the services economy remains dependent on low wage India.

2 Within that context, I therefore contend that accumulation post collapse will fail due to the close links between labour's component of value and its consumerism...something that neutralises slavery. Feudalism will well re-emerge but capitalism will have hit the buffers.

It is in this context that Marx contemplates the possibility of a return to collectivism......which is not entirely out of the realms of reasonableness....subject of course to the risk posed by climate change.

However, these speculations about machines are just that. Until I see clear evidence of an abandonment of labour to the degree that outsourcing human labour disappears, I prefer the labour theory of value.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') wasn't suggesting slavery, but the use of technology and ff increases productivity to a level where goods and services are produced by a small fraction of the population. When we then hit a decline how can the current levels of (unreal) capital be generated. At that stage I believe the 'financial' economy will have to suddenly align itself with the 'real' economy which could cause it to break.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'C')apitalism has particular characteristics. Slavery is not one of them. Labur value extraction contemplates a sufficient exchange to facilitate the market. ME economies which still exhibit certain medieval characteristics are still largely feudal (for example the rules on usury.) Any post capitalist economy based on the use of slaves will be feudal and largely non-accumulative. Nazi Germany for example, was regressively feudal although Hitler characterised it as bourgeoisie socialism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I') agree with AD that ff are a multiplier, where I think we differ is that IMHO the power of the multiplier has become in some ways more critical than labour itself. I believe that the idea that post peak the world can continue to create the levels of surplus we currently enjoy by employing more people to replace our ff slaves is unrealistic.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 20:49:44

BTW- for those interested in starting a sister group on f ace book. 8) PM me- I don't have any wish to compete with PO.com nor to monopolize- if there is enough member interest- especially from long timer's here- perhaps this would be a good thing :)
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 21:33:40

I have been a Marxist since my teens (I am in my early forties) and have always been of the view that resourcing would bring down capitalism. In fact, resource failure is one of capitalism's fundamental contradictions (against the backdrop of seeming plenty.)

Without labour and access to the new world opened up by Victoria's England as well as the context of Anglo-Saxon law, globalisation would not have occurred, nor would have capitalism. Which explains why Marx chose the British library to be the seat of his endeavours when writing Capital.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')t still needs people run the machines.

For the first time in my life I am currently working on a production line. The factory is closing soon and the jobs will disappear from our region. The reason. Firstly the parent group is shifting some production from Western Europe to Poland it does however need to keep close to the markets, so keeps it's expensive labour on in one factory which is installing 8 million euros of advanced machinery which will increase productivity significantly. The same machinery which is being installed in Poland which by the way is not actually offering the cheapest wage rates available.

I don't dispute that labour is still key, but contend that resources and oil in particular could potentially cause the fall of capitalism.

Not suggesting it's happening anytime soon, but imagine for a moment that we did fall off the plateau, are you suggesting that Capitalism would survive the ensuing crisis?
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 21:55:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Whether the middle class is supported by creditors seeking growth or a fiat currency or from production of goods as in China the consumption per capita does in my opinion represent a reserve of energy that can be drawn down thus extending this plateau way out into the future.

Remove all non essential middle class consumption; food, sanitation, shelter, add a little for essential transportation and maintenance and what remains is the reserve we can draw down, allowing each generation to recalibrate what wealth means.

We can add another 2 billion and still ride this train for 2 centuries until a black swan event arrives.

I am only playing devil's advocate here to all those who perceive fragility in our global economic system.


Creditors requiring growth, fiat currency, and increasing consumption per capita from a growing global middle class are not examples of a "reserve of energy." If any, they require more energy.

What is left if people cut down on consumption is the reserve of energy. But the "train" might not run the same way, and I'm not certain how a growing global middle class will cut down on resource use except because of peak oil. Given that, there might be no reserve of energy.

Finally, a black swan doesn't arrive on schedule, e.g, after two centuries; that's why it's a black swan. That means it can arrive any time and many times within the next two centuries.
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Re: What keeps us coming back to Peakoil.com?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 13 Nov 2013, 21:57:08

Also, American Dream gives very good points. Similar ones were raised in a thread about capitalism.
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