[KaiserJeep]

Of course, we are already at least one order of magnitude cheaper than Apollo or the Shuttle.

Now I'd like to give the technologist view of the planet and it's human inhabitants.

7.3 Billion humans already exist on the planet. This wildly unsustainable population, this "overshoot population", whatever you want to call it, is here already, and is consuming precious resources at grossly unsustainable rates. Hydrocarbon depletion is the favorite theme here at this Forum, but you could also look at fresh water, arable soil, pH changes in the oceans, species extinction, AGW, damaged fisheries, or any number of things that 7.3B humans consume or damage at unsustainable rates. There simply are too many people on a small planet that has finite limits on everything needed to live.

7.3B humans will not vanish silently in the night. They will farm depleted soil until they get back less than they plant, then eat next year's seeds. They will slash and burn rainforest as long as rainforest exists, for temporary croplands. They will fish depleted fisheries until every species is gone from the sea. They will eat insects when nothing else has protein. They will consume the krill in the sea and the songbirds in the forest and the rodents in the ruined cities. In the struggle to survive, the humans will occupy every varied corner of the Earth and consume every edible plant and animal, everywhere. Finally, the humans will eat each other. Then they will die, but not before the already damaged environment is hugely wounded.

We are not talking about the end of the world. This is one of many mass extinctions, the sixth one we have knowledge of. The Earth will survive, scattered pockets of plants and animals will remain, as will much reduced numbers of humans.

Then the cycle will begin again. Those human survivors will reproduce until the tiny carrying capacity of a once beautiful and diverse Earth is again exceeded, and again the population of humans, plants, and animals will crash. Further environmental damage, more species gone forever, more territory uninhabitable. Then the cycle starts again, and finishes again, in ever shorter periods of time. In "Peak Oil" terminology, call it the "jagged peaks" of the declining human population curve.

But it's not going to be a Dark Age. The knowledge we have will remain in digital memory and printed texts. Man will leave the reeking hellhole of a planet sooner or later. Meanwhile he will possess essential technology, because those humans with tech eat those without it. Those who remain behind will resume the struggle to live and reproduce, until at last the final habitable corner of the Earth is damaged and sterile.

Reboot complete, only the lower forms of life and a few hardy plants remain, scattered across the surface of a once beautiful and fertile world. Millions of years later, the Earth is again a nice place, but with a new dominant species.

Avoiding this fate can quite simply be described: Mankind must acquire the wisdom to not reproduce, to allow his own population to decline to levels that perma-culture or agrarian farming can be used. He must become the steward of every other Earthly species, and have a longtime plan for all of them.

I think that achieving such a state of wisdom is about 1% as likely as viable space colonies. Feel free to disagree, but have the details to back up your opinion.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that achieving such a state of wisdom is about 1% as likely as viable space colonies.

[SeaGypsy]

KJ, I wish you had written that a few days ago. Sometimes it's hard to do when new to a forum, but 'spilling your guts'- speaking from the personal- makes communication so much easier than 'thought bubble' style; a polarity in posting styles which is less than obvious when new here but over time becomes fairly obvious.

The argument posted above fits into a set of arguments which I and many 'outside the box' ecologists agree contains 1 fundamental flaw.

The progression outlined fails to account adequately for energy requirements simply to maintain the redundant systems fundamental to the efficient running of the supply chain requirement currently enabling population explosion. The assumption is based on the longevity and viability of organization- the most important variable in the entire argument.

Those of my 'side' would argue that long before the planet we are currently on is transformed beyond nature's ability to heal itself- the systems maintaining the population explosion will break down. When this happens- nature takes over- we are no longer 'in control' of what happens. The most immediate threat to this system is already upon us- economic systems collapse. Space development being a product of the excess wealth generated in the age of abundant energy slaves, it's existence is far more imminently threatened than fundamental ecology- the ability for life to be sustained on Earth.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'R')eboot complete, only the lower forms of life and a few hardy plants remain, scattered across the surface of a once beautiful and fertile world. Millions of years later, the Earth is again a nice place, but with a new dominant species.

Avoiding this fate can quite simply be described: Mankind must acquire the wisdom to not reproduce, to allow his own population to decline to levels that perma-culture or agrarian farming can be used. He must become the steward of every other Earthly species, and have a longtime plan for all of them.

I think that achieving such a state of wisdom is about 1% as likely as viable space colonies. Feel free to disagree, but have the details to back up your opinion.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')
I think that achieving such a state of wisdom is about 1% as likely as viable space colonies. Feel free to disagree, but have the details to back up your opinion.

[Timo]

How far back does the 7th Generation concept go? How long was that practice and princimple employed as the manner of governance for the people who used it? I'm faily familar with the concept of 7th Generation, but not its history.

[KaiserJeep]

ibon, I would find it a lot easier to credit some of the concepts above if you had avoided the word "meme". The pop culture "science of memetics" so common on the Net has been officially dismissed by Richard Dawkins as nonsense. I personally believe that the even older (and generally accepted) concept of "Groupthink", exacerbated by the modern communications of the Net, and in particular the social networking apps on mobile devices, more than explains any data that is mis-interpreted as confirming memetics.

As for the Catabolic/Anabolic theories of cycles and collapse - an interesting read, but I count the advent of Western civilization as the beginning of the Renaissance in the 14th Century, which means it is now 700 years old. I think the difference is widespread literacy, and the fact that cultural memory now includes books - or both books and bytes in this Digital Age.

Whatever, that's aside from my main point. As a matter of fact, there is so much variation in human culture - everything from Zuni Tribalism to the near perfect Socialism of the original Inuits before the Lutherans got to them - that I would assert that 7.3B or more humans can be expected to behave more like yeast than any more complex organism.

With one exception - we are one of the few animals that is spiteful enough to destroy something denied to us. Some of the human animals presently have thermonuclear weapons. I simply hope they all decide to starve rather than blow up more of the world. There is however a decent chance that such costly-to-maintain weapons won't exist or won't be functional when that fatefull decision is made.

[Ibon]

Kaiser Jeep, your response was quibbling over a few points where you didn't agree which is fine but it was lacking in not addressing the main point whether or not you see human civilization having the potential to be culturally molded going through the bottleneck now that our biosphere has recently emerged as a conceptualized entity. That was the main point of my post and you didn't even address it. I am sure from your deeply pessimistic orientation of our species potential to change culturally toward sustainability that you are not hopeful but at least address the topic and share your views instead of quibbling over minor details.

[SeaGypsy]

Richard Dawkins, the atheist who got famous for writing a high school essay- great appeal to authority there. If anything being discussed here fits the term- 'meme' it's space development.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'K')aiser Jeep, your response was quibbling over a few points where you didn't agree which is fine but it was lacking in not addressing the main point whether or not you see human civilization having the potential to be culturally molded going through the bottleneck now that our biosphere has recently emerged as a conceptualized entity. That was the main point of my post and you didn't even address it. I am sure from your deeply pessimistic orientation of our species potential to change culturally toward sustainability that you are not hopeful but at least address the topic and share your views instead of quibbling over minor details.

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'R')ichard Dawkins, the atheist who got famous for writing a high school essay- great appeal to authority there...

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'R')ichard Dawkins, the atheist who got famous for writing a high school essay- great appeal to authority there. If anything being discussed here fits the term- 'meme' it's space development.

[SeaGypsy]

Dawkin's fame, not credentials were what I was pointing to. His book on religion I am sure I could have written better. KJ I have 1/2 of 1 degree of separation from the USA, in some regards I am probably more American than you. You are correct about your knowledge of Australia. My bet is you have never been anywhere near a wilderness or tried to live as a frontiersman, something I have done more than a decade of- it's still real, it's still out there and the folks there would likely knock your block off if you tried to tell them otherwise.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'M')y bet is you have never been anywhere near a wilderness or tried to live as a frontiersman, something I have done more than a decade of- it's still real, it's still out there and the folks there would likely knock your block off if you tried to tell them otherwise.

[SeaGypsy]

Having not driven around Alaska or other remote parts of the USA with a device to check- I don't know the answer to that. There are still places as far as I am aware where walking into the bush can result in nature literally eating you- regardless of if it's 3G, 4G or NoG. Here in Australia, half way between 2 capital cities, I can drive for half a day then walk into a vehicle free wild patch which would take 3 days plus to walk across and would not see another human being in the journey. This is in high biodiversity forest- mountain country. Out in the deserts- there are patches the size of France and Germany with no roads and with waterholes and wildlife galore.

[KaiserJeep]

I actually spend weeks each year in the Wilderness, it's my idea of a vacation. That's why I own three Jeeps and nothing else. My thing is wild trout. I also had one set of Grandparents that lived on a farm, they first got electricity in my youth while I was living with them.

I spent two years in Alaska in a place without roads, and learned to drive offroad in a 1952 M-37 Dodge 4x4 truck with Arctic Service modifications. I was wearing a military uniform at the time, during what we called the Cold War.

None of which has anything to do with the topics we were discussing in this thread. I believe I successfully refuted your arguments, I await a response. You fellows have a problem sticking to the topic.

[SeaGypsy]

Actually you are not sticking to the topic, there is a space thread special just for such fantasy. The technology for wilderness living is well established, sounds like you have some yourself. A Luddite might prefer a more Grizzly Adams style kit, ultimate redundancy, resiliency. There are how many millions of SUV equipped north Americans with arsenals and bunkers and camo gear. Lots more than are ready to march, paddle or sail away when TSHTF.

[KaiserJeep]

I thought we were talking in this thread about why survival on the surface of the Earth will be increasingly difficult and unlikely until finally it becomes impossible. Which is why leaving the place before it becomes a reeking hellhole is the smart move.

Based on what has been said so far it may boil down to whether or not you believe that human animals can control their own reproduction. Now we must skirt an uncomfortable topic.

Obviously, the Western European cultures can manage reproduction, because many such countries have anything from very low birth rates to actual negative birth rates, without immigration they would have shrinking populations. But China, India, and many African and Asian countries are experiencing explosive population growths. Therein lies the problem that must be overcome.

Diverse cultures, and enjoying the first generation of improved nutrition and modern medicine, based on petrochemicals. Yet they too must voluntarily comply with zero population growth to save some remnant of the world that exists today. How do you propose we bring that about?