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PeakOil is You

JD comes BACK!!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: JD comes BACK!!!

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 25 Aug 2013, 11:27:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'b')ut he is rising like US oil production to the occasion of yet another peak oil site biting the dust before the oft declared but rarely seen peak oil itself shows up!


Look, there's Peak Oil as seen in popular doom books and disaster movies. Where suddenly, magically, because there wasn't growth in oil production, everything stops, and mad max rules the landscape.

There's also Peak Oil, as in, "why does my hamburger cost a lot more, and why does it take more minutes of my compensated labor to buy that same hamburger.".

The first makes for decent book sales and advertising revenue. The latter is boring as *****, but very much real, and in play, now. Peak Oil has shown up; this is it, there is no Thunderdome, there is no reset, there is no "The man gets whats coming to him".... No. The burger is more expensive, fewer miles driven in the car, bad bumps in finance, housing, etc; a slow grinding that crushes the lower and mid middle class down into the realm of the peasant/surf, and traps them and their children there. A segregation of the upper 20% cadre, and their 1%/0.01% lieges; assets and economic activity sealed behind gates of steel and gates of bits; with the peasants delivering and cleaning and packaging the toys and treats with no chance of ever rising above their station. THAT is Peak Oil. And it is now.
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Re: JD comes BACK!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 26 Aug 2013, 00:55:10

FWIW, a "Mad Max" scenario is closer to a feudal system, where slaves serve an armed group. The current system is capitalist, where the elite lend money to everyone else and then earn from money used to buy goods and services.
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Re: JD comes BACK!!!

Unread postby h2 » Wed 28 Aug 2013, 14:12:14

John-A, if you want to sell a point, which is I assume what you are trying to do, it's useful to not totally mis-characterize the motivations of TOD closing. Since anyone who has followed this knows that they are closing for two primary reasons:

1. they do it for free, volunteer, ie, you know, they don't get paid for their very hard work, something you probably have little familiarity with as a concept, or experience, they have simply gotten burned out from watching the bumpy plateau bump along. Anyone who has done years of steady volunteer work on projects where you have to basically treat it as a second job, which I have done as well in different areas, understands this basic reality, so pretending that they are closing due to being wrong is just absurd, and shows you have no understanding of that situation at all, and are just taking the outside media talking points and trying to sell them here. That's a bad idea, since people here actually tend to know what they are talking about.

2. Linked to point 1 is the fact that we are now deep into the undulating plateau, and following it is frankly repetitious and a bit boring, and when you do stuff for free, volunteer, you know, the concept that seems alien to you, remembering that tod is not a company that is closing down because they went bankrupt, they are closing down because the energy, so to speak, is simply not there to continue, primarily because they all now know that it's time to move on into dealing with this situation in their real lives, the lives that have to make sure they have food on the table and a roof over their heads, anyway, doing boring stuff for free year over year, it just sort of grinds down on you, until you go, you know, this problem is solved, it's time to move on. Reminding again, volunteer work may pay in spiritual and other non material ways, but it rarely pays in cash. When a problem is hazy and not totally clear, yet is looming and benefits from your volunteer time, it is quite easy to dedicate the 10 to 40 hours or more per week on the project, once you grasp that the problem has now grown to be political, essentially, what the societies will chose to do to handle these new realities, continuing to publish basically the same information over and over again in different forms grows repetitious, and not interesting. If you were the type of person who is motivated by interesting problems, you would understand this point as well, so clearly you are not, which if fine, not many are, personally I value the contributions and time of volunteers who did do the work over people who do not.

Your graphical cherry picking is sort of cute, however, obviously once oil prices rise to a certain level, they can, at great social cost, begin to extract the stuff that solid peak oil analysts always said they would extract, tight oil, heavy dirty oil, tar sands, etc, but pretending that this is stuff somehow disproves peak oil flow observations when it does the exact opposite, to me suggests either pure wishful thinking, or pursuit of agendas that are often paid.

By mis-characterizing the causes for tod closing doors, you basically lose a lot of credibility on any other points you might want to promote in this thread, just a 'friendly' word of advice if you are trying to convince anyone who knows anything of anything, don't make a mistake this bad or nothing else you say will really resonate. Repeating the mass media talking points as if they have anything to do with the actual reality shows a fairly significant sloppiness in your methods, and certainly does you no real good in a forum like this, but each to their own, in a sense, I like it when people get sloppy, that way you sort of know who they are, it's beneficial, less bs to wade through. I assume the JD guy you like does that as well, or you wouldn't like him so much. Personally I like serious people who actually know what they are talking about, from direct experience, a bit more than someone running an internet polemic blog, ie, professionals, and there is no shortage of professionals to follow, deffeyes, rockman, etc. As for others, as they say, a clock that has stopped is right twice a day. I take such things as just signs of the increasing intellectual desperation of people who really really want to believe that our car/energy culture has a future in its current form, even as it grows more and more obvious that it does not. But change is difficult, and is feared by most people, that's always been the case, always will be I think, so you are in good company.
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Re: JD comes BACK!!!

Unread postby John_A » Wed 28 Aug 2013, 16:11:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', 'J')ohn-A, if you want to sell a point, which is I assume what you are trying to do, it's useful to not totally mis-characterize the motivations of TOD closing. Since anyone who has followed this knows that they are closing for two primary reasons:


A) This isn't the TOD is closing thread and B) that thread wasn't about the press release claim of why they said they were closing, but the REAL reasons.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', '
')1. they do it for free, volunteer, ie, you know, they don't get paid for their very hard work, something you probably have little familiarity with as a concept, or experience, they have simply gotten burned out from watching the bumpy plateau bump along. Anyone who has done years of steady volunteer work on projects where you have to basically treat it as a second job, which I have done as well in different areas, understands this basic reality, so pretending that they are closing due to being wrong is just absurd, and shows you have no understanding of that situation at all, and are just taking the outside media talking points and trying to sell them here. That's a bad idea, since people here actually tend to know what they are talking about.


People here do it for free as well, but po.com isn't closing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', '
')2. Linked to point 1 is the fact that we are now deep into the undulating plateau, and following it is frankly repetitious and a bit boring, and when you do stuff for free, volunteer, you know, the concept that seems alien to you, remembering that tod is not a company that is closing down because they went bankrupt, they are closing down because the energy, so to speak, is simply not there to continue,


So peak oil has become boring? Funny, that never struck me as one of the claimed consequences of it, back when it was still peak oil and plateau oil hadn't come along to try and save face for those who bought in early. And when the plateau turns into increasing oil production like...it did....you can't even use the "peak became a plateau because peak wasn't the peak we expected" angle anymore. Perhaps "peak plateau"? The new one, not the old one?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', '
')By mis-characterizing the causes for tod closing doors, you basically lose a lot of credibility on any other points you might want to promote in this thread,


This is the JD thread, as far as losing credibility, that has already happened, if TOD editors and contributors are now being discussed adversely at national professional meetings. Feel free to lambaste the oil engineers and oil geologists and oil geophysicists who did this, them not having much credibility in...oil....stuff....I guess.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', '
')But change is difficult, and is feared by most people, that's always been the case, always will be I think, so you are in good company.


Change is difficult, quite true. So kudos to TOD for subjecting themselves to some by throwing in the towel. They fought the good fight, right up until the pressure of holding back an ocean of oil production with a spoon became too much. But the gallantry with which they fought was outstanding. Better luck next resource scarcity cycle.
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Re: JD comes BACK!!!

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 29 Aug 2013, 03:27:22

@ h2 - spot on!

I'm not sure it's worth tryng to appeal directly, but it's certainly exactly how I feel. Might have debated at one time, but when it's obvious the guy is trolling you get tired of responding.
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