Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal factors are contributing to the expectation of continued high crude oil prices. First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain robust during 2005 and 2006, although not as strong as in 2004, despite high projected oil prices. Worldwide oil demand is projected to grow at an annual average of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2005 and 2006, representing a 2.5-percent annual average growth rate compared with 3.2 percent growth in 2004. Chinese demand growth, which averaged about 1 million barrels per day in 2004, is projected to be slower but still robust at an annual average of 600,000 barrels per day in 2005 and 2006 (this is a slight downward revision from the previous Outlook). Second, expected growth in non-OPEC supplies is not expected to accommodate worldwide demand growth. Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by an annual average of 0.8 million barrels per day during 2005 and 2006, below annual average growth in the 2002 through 2004 period. Third, worldwide spare crude oil production capacity has recently diminished; in practice, only Saudi Arabia has any available spare production capacity. Despite expected capacity additions in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries in 2005 and 2006, spare capacity is not projected to grow significantly over the next 2 years. Fourth, downstream sectors, such as refining and shipping, are expected to remain tight. Finally, geo-political risks, such as the continued insurgency in Iraq, are expected to keep the level of uncertainty in world oil markets high.
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Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005
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Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005
by khebab » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:13:17
There is a good probability that we will pass $60 in the next weeks.
But in term of days of supply, it looks quite different!
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by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:21:26
Saudi Arabia has spare capacity... Yeah whatever? According To whom?
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by Raxozanne » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:30:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'S')audi Arabia has spare capacity... Yeah whatever? According To whom?
Haven't you heard? They have an ever-replenishing sea of oil under Saudi Arabia
Hello, my name is Rax. I live in the Amazon jungle with a bunch of women. We are super eco feminists and our favourite passtimes are dangling men by their ankles and discussing peak oil. - apparently
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by Taskforce_Unity » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 14:33:07
I surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard 
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by nth » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 15:07:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard
Actually, it doesn't matter if Saudi are telling the truth or not.
Saudi claim extra capacity are sour and heavy crude. No refinery available to process it at the moment. So it is useless extra capacity.
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?
Iraq is operating under a transparent system as they are opening up their upstream oil to foreign firms, thus the need to open up their data banks. If they are able to increase their reserves, then does this give credence to Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi?
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by Tanada » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 19:57:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard
Actually, it doesn't matter if Saudi are telling the truth or not.
Saudi claim extra capacity are sour and heavy crude. No refinery available to process it at the moment. So it is useless extra capacity.
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?
Iraq is operating under a transparent system as they are opening up their upstream oil to foreign firms, thus the need to open up their data banks. If they are able to increase their reserves, then does this give credence to Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi?
If the foreign investors come in AND they discover the Iraqi's are telling the truth about their reserves it would give us some hope of a buffer period. If on the other hand they come in and discover the actual figures are 50% of the claims as stated today then boom we are in for a wild ride
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
