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Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005

Unread postby khebab » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:13:17

Short-Term Energy Outlook – June 2005

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal factors are contributing to the expectation of continued high crude oil prices. First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain robust during 2005 and 2006, although not as strong as in 2004, despite high projected oil prices. Worldwide oil demand is projected to grow at an annual average of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2005 and 2006, representing a 2.5-percent annual average growth rate compared with 3.2 percent growth in 2004. Chinese demand growth, which averaged about 1 million barrels per day in 2004, is projected to be slower but still robust at an annual average of 600,000 barrels per day in 2005 and 2006 (this is a slight downward revision from the previous Outlook). Second, expected growth in non-OPEC supplies is not expected to accommodate worldwide demand growth. Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by an annual average of 0.8 million barrels per day during 2005 and 2006, below annual average growth in the 2002 through 2004 period. Third, worldwide spare crude oil production capacity has recently diminished; in practice, only Saudi Arabia has any available spare production capacity. Despite expected capacity additions in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries in 2005 and 2006, spare capacity is not projected to grow significantly over the next 2 years. Fourth, downstream sectors, such as refining and shipping, are expected to remain tight. Finally, geo-political risks, such as the continued insurgency in Iraq, are expected to keep the level of uncertainty in world oil markets high.


There is a good probability that we will pass $60 in the next weeks.
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But in term of days of supply, it looks quite different!
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Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:21:26

Saudi Arabia has spare capacity... Yeah whatever? According To whom?
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 12:30:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'S')audi Arabia has spare capacity... Yeah whatever? According To whom?


Haven't you heard? They have an ever-replenishing sea of oil under Saudi Arabia :razz:
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Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 14:33:07

I surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard :lol:
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Unread postby nth » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 15:07:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard :lol:


Actually, it doesn't matter if Saudi are telling the truth or not.
Saudi claim extra capacity are sour and heavy crude. No refinery available to process it at the moment. So it is useless extra capacity.

On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?

Iraq is operating under a transparent system as they are opening up their upstream oil to foreign firms, thus the need to open up their data banks. If they are able to increase their reserves, then does this give credence to Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi?
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Unread postby Tanada » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 19:57:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') surely wish i had an ever replenishing sea of oil in my backyard :lol:


Actually, it doesn't matter if Saudi are telling the truth or not.
Saudi claim extra capacity are sour and heavy crude. No refinery available to process it at the moment. So it is useless extra capacity.

On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?

Iraq is operating under a transparent system as they are opening up their upstream oil to foreign firms, thus the need to open up their data banks. If they are able to increase their reserves, then does this give credence to Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi?


If the foreign investors come in AND they discover the Iraqi's are telling the truth about their reserves it would give us some hope of a buffer period. If on the other hand they come in and discover the actual figures are 50% of the claims as stated today then boom we are in for a wild ride
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 21:01:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?



8O

Source????
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Unread postby nth » Wed 15 Jun 2005, 13:06:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?



8O

Source????


Source? Why you want a source for rumor?
The person said Iraq will bump up reserves by 100billion by 2007.
In 2007, will we know he is right or wrong.
That is more than 2 years!
You can only take this as a guess by him.

Likelihood is low considering 1990's and 2000's, Middle East countries have found very few new oil fields. In the 1980's, they at least found and quantify some large fields. Campbell seems to claim these fields are known fields, but it doesn't matter because they were not quantified and added to their stated reserves according to their governments.

Iraq in the 90's till now didn't have much resources to seek new oil fields, but if other Middle East countries didn't find much, I really doubt Iraq will find 100B.

Anyways,....
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provid ... ID=4885953
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Unread postby khebab » Wed 15 Jun 2005, 13:25:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?



8O

Source????

see also the excellent following thread Iraq's True Reserves - Peak Oil Delayed or Peak Controlled?
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Unread postby nth » Wed 15 Jun 2005, 19:48:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
On another note, did you hear that Iraq is about to bump up its reserves by 100billion barrels by 2007?



8O

Source????

see also the excellent following thread Iraq's True Reserves - Peak Oil Delayed or Peak Controlled?


The data for all of the oil fields will be available once they start opening them up to foreign bidding. Foreign firms will likely need to report to stockholders and so we will know. They are targeting 2006 and 2007. I am not so sure things will be so fasst.
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Unread postby savethehumans » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 01:31:50

Saudi Arabia has plenty of spare capacity--of SAND! :lol:

Seriously, folks, no one here is really taking anything they're saying as truth, right? Right?? :shock:
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Unread postby nth » Thu 16 Jun 2005, 13:10:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('savethehumans', 'S')audi Arabia has plenty of spare capacity--of SAND! :lol:

Seriously, folks, no one here is really taking anything they're saying as truth, right? Right?? :shock:


why so pessimistic?

i do think they have more oil than everyone else.
i also think they are nearing peak because their major oil field is a brownfield.
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