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Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby dsula » Thu 16 May 2013, 11:39:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', ' ')Buying gasoline is for suckers. That's all I said.

Ahh, the urban slick, who never had to do real work, never had to cut wood for winter heating nor tend to fields or livestock. Who never had to construct anything nor haul equipment. Thank God I chose not to be a city slick. :-D
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Beery1 » Thu 16 May 2013, 12:59:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')uckers like the providers of all those services? Should they prefer to go out of business if they can't 'do it on a bike'? (Just askin') :)


If they can make a profit while buying gasoline and passing the costs on to consumers, that's fine - for now.

However, no one is making a profit by buying gasoline at a gas station and then burning it to get to and from work. That is stupid. It was stupid 35 years ago when I decided not to get caught in that money sink, and it's even more stupid now. And the stupidity of it will continue to rise exponentially.

I realize that I'm saying that many people here have shackled themselves to the stupid wagon, and I realize that the message is not gonna be well received by many, but that doesn't make it any less true.

And as for those companies that use gasoline to make a profit - their time is getting short too. They'd better have a back-up plan for when oil gets so expensive (or the economy makes it so even at today's prices) that no one can afford their product anymore.

Gasoline powered vehicles are a drain on every motorist's resources. The average car costs nearly $10,000 per year to operate (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf ... ership.asp). According to the AAA:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he average person spends $9,641 per year for the privilege of driving. Keep in mind that these estimated costs are based on an average gasoline cost of $2.256 per gallon.


As we all know well, gasoline is no longer $2.25 a gallon.

So anyway, that's effectively an extra $10,000 per year in my paycheck - $10,000 that a motorist earning the same salary is burning - literally - and getting nothing useful for it.

And all a person needs to do to stop burning that $10,000 is to choose to live within 10 miles (or better 5 miles - better still 2 miles, as I do) of work and amenities, and then sell that money burner.

And for those who can't move closer to work because of family commitments, lack of funds or whatever, well okay, maybe you have a good excuse. But it's an 'excuse', not a 'reason'. the question is, when things get tight, will that excuse be good enough? Because things might get real bad quite soon, and when that happens your car will be a liability, you can count on that. And if you're in the exurbs and you don't have alternative modes of transportation, you will be up shit creek, almost literally without a paddle.

If burning $10,000 per year makes any sense at all to anyone now, it soon won't. Gasoline may get you places, but it is not your friend, nor is your car. When peak oil really makes itself plain, your over-reliance on these things will bite you and every other motorist in the butt.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Econ101 » Thu 16 May 2013, 17:58:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'S')NAP (food stamps) affects food prices more than fuel costs.

Criminy, your trove of unsubstantiated assertions never ceases to amaze me.

It's like a full time job following you around and refuting your BS.

Image


I dont know what you are showing there. Is it a price index or production index?

When I mentioned SNAP I was specifically refering to price. Grocery store price and food commodity production are not related much.

Grocery store prices are pushed much higher by SNAP in two ways:
1) Demand is increased without supply
2) The government borrows money to fund SNAP weaking the dollar and contributing to inflation

Heres a SNAP enrollment graph for the past few years:

Image

If your graph is price that fits in pretty well too, wouldnt you say Pops?

Rising enrollment = rising prices.
Last edited by Econ101 on Thu 16 May 2013, 18:14:25, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Econ101 » Thu 16 May 2013, 18:08:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'P')ops – “Just think if that 900,000 barrels North Dakota pumped today would flow right into a gas refinery…” Colour me confused again: AFAIK every bbl of oil produced in N Dakota does flow into a refinery somewhere. Along with every future bbl. And along with the 18 million bbls of oil we consume every day.

And not to take a bit of credit away from beery but I had never bought a teaspoon of motor fuel for the first 25 years of my life. And the grandparents who raised me never bought a teaspoon of motor fuel their entire lives. OTOH they and I have depended on the consumption of motor fuel for ever day of our lives. We might not have been burning any but someone was for our benefit.

Now if I could get about 100 million Americans to follow beery’s lead I could buy that V8 4X4 pickup I’ve always longed for. LOL.


Well, I suppose you are correct, but you forget. The million produced in North Dakota since I posted yesterday is in addition the other 18 million already going to refineies. Somehow you never see production increases as additions. What do you think they are? What does it mean when production is up?

The second refinery in North Dakota is under construction. The first has been running for along time and handles about 60,000 B/d. Im not sure about the Berthold refinery. Hopefully it will have expasion capabilities. The best place to refine the crude the right there and ship the value added. The other 18 million barrels already have a place to go.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Econ101 » Fri 17 May 2013, 11:39:29

I heard on the news gas prices have been affected by scheduled refinery maintenance and a break down. The impact on price was immediate. A big refinery in North Dakota, converting 1 million b/d of crude into useful gasoline and other products would certainly be a relief to the strained system.

All oil goes to the refinery but it takes time and money to ship/store and handle. Shortening that distance wouldn't add any more energy to the oil but from the holistic standpoint would be a good idea. eroei you know?

These fluctuations in gas prices are not related to the worlds oil supplies. They are for the purposes of our lifetimes infinite. This is a sign of a strained system, running at capacity. Its nice for them, a plant at full capacity is more profitable. Its costly for us. If we are going to be producing a million barrels or more/day that we didnt have before we need more refining capacity and demand for the products.

Again, the reason we dont have the refinery capacity we need is peak oil politics. Getting necessary permits is almost impossible. The Berthold refinery in North Dakota is on the Indian Nation, presumably out of the grasp of the peak oil politicians.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 17 May 2013, 12:56:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'I') heard on the news gas prices have been affected by scheduled refinery maintenance and a break down. The impact on price was immediate. A big refinery in North Dakota, converting 1 million b/d of crude into useful gasoline and other products would certainly be a relief to the strained system.

All oil goes to the refinery but it takes time and money to ship/store and handle. Shortening that distance wouldn't add any more energy to the oil but from the holistic standpoint would be a good idea. eroei you know?

These fluctuations in gas prices are not related to the worlds oil supplies. They are for the purposes of our lifetimes infinite. This is a sign of a strained system, running at capacity. Its nice for them, a plant at full capacity is more profitable. Its costly for us. If we are going to be producing a million barrels or more/day that we didnt have before we need more refining capacity and demand for the products.

Again, the reason we dont have the refinery capacity we need is peak oil politics. Getting necessary permits is almost impossible. The Berthold refinery in North Dakota is on the Indian Nation, presumably out of the grasp of the peak oil politicians.


The problem isn't exactly "refinery capacity" but the fact that producers are now resorting to shale, etc. That's not "peak oil politics" but peak oil.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 May 2013, 14:38:29

$4.39 gal here now, expect $4.49 tomorrow.....
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby C8 » Fri 17 May 2013, 17:50:05

This must be a refinery or pipeline thing you are experiencing- here in Ohio its only about $3.60, nowhere near the all time high (and only weeks before Memorial Day)
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 May 2013, 18:15:16

Yeah, shut down two refineries Memorial Weekend? I'm thinking this is more like a 'test run' to see how far TPTB can drive up prices.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 17 May 2013, 19:37:27

Thought you were driving some technology designed to cope with high fuel costs VM? Really Americans moaning on an international site about high prices which are substantially less than most of the rest of us have been paying for years, gets a little tiresome.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 18 May 2013, 07:37:47

The UK has had a 20% drop in petrol consumption in the past 5 years.

We hit local peak oil in 1999.

We have also had flat growth for the past 5 years.

Abundance not an option round here.

Still dont drive, cycle to anywhere closer than 150 miles and rely on rail to get me further.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Lore » Sat 18 May 2013, 08:43:54

We don't have rail here in the US. Getting to the nearest town for store bought food for me would mean a round trip of 34 miles. A bit difficult especially in the winter running through snow drifts with my bike. Unfortunately we've built a lifestyle around suburbia and a network of roads to access services that are often at distances not easily reached by anything other than a motorized vehicle. Those distances to goods and services have only gotten farther away over time as big box stores, lead by Walmart, have destroyed small village stores which use to support local rural communities.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby dissident » Sat 18 May 2013, 08:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hought you were driving some technology designed to cope with high fuel costs VM? Really Americans moaning on an international site about high prices which are substantially less than most of the rest of us have been paying for years, gets a little tiresome.


In the case of Europe, there is the offsetting factor of a well developed commuter rail network and superior public transit in cities compared to the USA. Except for a few cities like New York, Boston, Chicago, etc. which have half decent public transport, Americans actually need cars to move around. Europeans can pay higher gasoline prices because they do not need to rely on cars. Gasoline prices in Australia are about 20 cents higher than those in Ontario, Canada, but about the same as in Quebec, Canada, but are still much lower than in the EU.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Pops » Sat 18 May 2013, 08:59:59

It's the typical May switch to summer blend. Probably aggravated in the midwest this year by the oil cos exporting all that excess unleaded out of Cushing - stocks there are down 15% from a couple of months ago.

Yee Haw, we're an exporter!

I know everyone said fracking is a miracle but it just goes to show that you can find a miracle anywhere if you look hard enough. Someone found a vision of Jesus on their dog's ass...

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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Beery1 » Sat 18 May 2013, 09:52:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'W')e don't have rail here in the US. Getting to the nearest town for store bought food for me would mean a round trip of 34 miles...


Even if I had to ride my bike 34 miles through a blizzard (it wouldn't be the first time) to get groceries, I've made sure that I'm able to do that if worse comes to the worst. 34 miles is only 7 hours round-trip by bike and I can carry enough food in my panniers to last a couple of weeks. If there's an oil shock and you're 34 miles from town, I sincerely hope that you're not going to be relying on motorized transport alone.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Beery1 » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'E')xcept for a few cities like New York, Boston, Chicago, etc. which have half decent public transport, Americans actually need cars to move around.


That's true, if the Americans are especially fat or out of shape. If the Americans are in reasonably good shape (meaning not obese and with no heart problems - I realize that narrows it down quite a bit), those Americans don't 'need' cars - they only think they do - a failure of imagination. Whatever happened to the pioneer spirit?

I cycled 10,000 miles throughout Europe, traveling up to 90 miles a day, without a car and without using public transport of any kind - and I didn't even train before it, other than a 3 mile weekday commute to work. If it can be done in Europe by a geeky 130lb weakling like I was at that time, it can be done in the US by anyone in even mediocre shape.

And I've been living in the US for over 20 years and I've never owned a car. When I lived in Massachusetts I lived in a town of 20,000 people and I never used public transport - I used my bike - and I did fine.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Lore » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:12:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'W')e don't have rail here in the US. Getting to the nearest town for store bought food for me would mean a round trip of 34 miles...


Even if I had to ride my bike 34 miles through a blizzard (it wouldn't be the first time) to get groceries, I've made sure that I'm able to do that if worse comes to the worst. 34 miles is only 7 hours round-trip by bike and I can carry enough food in my panniers to last a couple of weeks. If there's an oil shock and you're 34 miles from town, I sincerely hope that you're not going to be relying on motorized transport alone.


I'm prepared to hold up much longer then just a couple of weeks. I'm also not too worried that the next decade will see me having to walk through unplowed roads in search of groceries at Walmart. Even if it came to that sooner, I very much doubt the store would have anything on the shelves anyway. Venturing out would be just a dangerous wasted trip at that point.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:23:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'W')e don't have rail here in the US. Getting to the nearest town for store bought food for me would mean a round trip of 34 miles...

Even if I had to ride my bike 34 miles through a blizzard (it wouldn't be the first time) to get groceries, I've made sure that I'm able to do that if worse comes to the worst. 34 miles is only 7 hours round-trip by bike and I can carry enough food in my panniers to last a couple of weeks. If there's an oil shock and you're 34 miles from town, I sincerely hope that you're not going to be relying on motorized transport alone.


I periodically ride about 35 miles round trip, down to a particular fishmonger who carries the best Ahi and blue crabs anywhere around. It takes me about an hour and a half each way. Its really no big deal. I think I'd pass on the blizzard / rain thing though. That's what pantries are for, so there's never a need to go grocery shopping when the weather is bad.

The regular grocery stores are between 3 and 12 miles round trip, making the transit time difference between bike and truck negligible. Fiddling with the bike at the store takes me about the same amount of time as the delta; but I do get to park in front. I can tote 30-40 lbs of groceries easily enough... 8 2L soda bottles and some miscellaneous bits.

People will get over their aversion to bikes and scooters when the financial pain becomes great enough. Till then, they can remain obese or a disciplined hungry, I think I'll stay the thin, sweaty guy having the jumboburger... WITH BACON!!!!
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby Beery1 » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:28:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'E')ven if it came to that sooner, I very much doubt the store would have anything on the shelves anyway. Venturing out would be just a dangerous wasted trip at that point.


That's true, IF the store had nothing on the shelves and IF rural America had turned into a Mad Max style dystopia. But don't you think you're narrowing your options a bit by predicating your survival on that one possible future?

I just think having access to non-motorized transportation is an option that no one in any peak oil scenario should be just dismissing out of hand. I'd hate to find myself 34 miles from anywhere and with no option other than walking. Even if your scenario does play out, if you do have to travel, every trip you take at walking speed puts you out in that dangerous wilderness for three times as long as you'd be in it with a bike, and with half the carrying capacity of a bike, that's twice as long again.

Holing up with a supply of goodies might work in the short term, but if that's the only plan, then it's just a longer drawn-out death sentence.
Last edited by Beery1 on Sat 18 May 2013, 10:55:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:50:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'I')f it can be done in Europe by a geeky 130lb weakling like I was at that time, it can be done in the US by anyone in even mediocre shape.


Call you on this one; your weight made it easier, not harder. At 185lb, when I climb hills, I'm putting out substantially more energy to do the same thing as the 130lb'er. And I require heavier components to manage the load, snapped two rear axles before buying a strong Aksium.. So your vehicle total curb weight is likely in the 180lb range, whereas I'm at over 250lb. And of course, an obese American at 250lb will have an absolutely brutal time of it. (been there, done that! lol)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I've been living in the US for over 20 years and I've never owned a car. When I lived in Massachusetts I lived in a town of 20,000 people and I never used public transport - I used my bike - and I did fine.


If I didn't have to deliver my child to school by "culturally approved" methods, or chauffeur my mostly blind wife, I could ditch the personal vehicle. So, not everyone can go car free, but its not too difficult to really minimize optional personal driving. I'd always have a truck for commercial use though, gas could go to $20/gal and wouldn't have the slightest impact on my business use of the truck.
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