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Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby vision-master » Sat 18 May 2013, 10:58:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hought you were driving some technology designed to cope with high fuel costs VM? Really Americans moaning on an international site about high prices which are substantially less than most of the rest of us have been paying for years, gets a little tiresome.



32 mpg the other day (highway).

Your tiresome as 'we' don't get free healthcare like you do...... want to pay $800 for a single, come to the good old usa buckwheat.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Beery1 » Sat 18 May 2013, 11:08:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'I')f it can be done in Europe by a geeky 130lb weakling like I was at that time, it can be done in the US by anyone in even mediocre shape.


Call you on this one; your weight made it easier, not harder...


Yeah, but as I said, I was a weakling - 20 years has given me some added strength to counteract the age, but I would still not say I was in great shape. Now I'm 190lb with a bit of fat around the middle, but I can still do 60 miles in a day, no problem. After a bit of conditioning I reckon I could still work up to the occasional 90 mile day. However, the dream of my English youth of doing the 'Dick Turpin' ride (200 miles in a day, but on a bike, not a horse) from London to York is probably beyond me now.

Anyway, my point still stands - a bike makes traveling three times easier, three times faster than walking, and you can carry twice the weight much easier than on your back or dragging a cart.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd of course, an obese American at 250lb will have an absolutely brutal time of it.


Let's face it, if we ever get to the point at which there's no gasoline to be had, the obese Americans are all either dead, soon to be dead, or getting into shape REAL fast.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..gas could go to $20/gal and wouldn't have the slightest impact on my business use of the truck.


Yeah, as long as you can pass on the gas price to a customer, you're fine - if there's gas, and if there are people willing to pay for the $20/gallon extra charge.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby SamInNebraska » Sat 18 May 2013, 11:53:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', ' ')Whatever happened to the pioneer spirit?


It is still here. Us fat and out of shape Americans used it, and our wonderful technology, to go build these so we don't have to use bicycles if we don't want to.

Image


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '
')
And I've been living in the US for over 20 years and I've never owned a car. When I lived in Massachusetts I lived in a town of 20,000 people and I never used public transport - I used my bike - and I did fine.


People in America like their cars, which is partially why they aren't about to let lack of liquid fuels stop them from owning one.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby AgentR11 » Sat 18 May 2013, 12:00:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'H')owever, the dream of my English youth of doing the 'Dick Turpin' ride (200 miles in a day, but on a bike, not a horse) from London to York is probably beyond me now.


I've looked at some longer century+ loops, you could probably do it easily enough in summer when the days are really long, start a couple hours before sunrise, use a HR monitor and stay in the low-regular metabolism zone, keeping your HR below 120 or so at all times. Stop for lunch and a nap; it'd probably work. Remember to match calories in with calories out, 50kcal / mile. That's a lot of fruit juice or cookie dough...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, my point still stands - a bike makes traveling three times easier, three times faster than walking, and you can carry twice the weight much easier than on your back or dragging a cart.


Absolutely.. though maximal load is greater for walking and cart pulling. Even with a bike-trailer, I can carry more on my back than the bike can withstand; and with a cart.... a human can move several hundred pounds, albeit slowly.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..gas could go to $20/gal and wouldn't have the slightest impact on my business use of the truck.

Yeah, as long as you can pass on the gas price to a customer, you're fine - if there's gas, and if there are people willing to pay for the $20/gallon extra charge.


This is a good point, but if there are no longer people to pay, then I've no need to move the loads that I require the truck to do. So it kinda goes both ways. I suspect for my remaining lifetime, that willingness will remain. Even on bike though, I can be in Houston, Dallas, or Austin in two days (with fewer tools and toys); those would be some great rides, huge lengths of empty asphalt, solar powered music blasting the eardrums, warm sun... Not very likely though, I don't think the price of gas ever gets to that level, demand destruction would crush and cap the price long before that level. (Wonder if I can chargeoff IRS mileage rate if I bike?)
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby AgentR11 » Sat 18 May 2013, 12:09:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'I')t is still here. Us fat and out of shape Americans used it, and our wonderful technology, to go build these so we don't have to use bicycles if we don't want to. nissan-leaf.jpg


I didn't realize the LEAF was built in the US, but so saith wiki, so saith we all. Learn something every day. I think the Japanese designed it though. :-D
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Lore » Sat 18 May 2013, 12:49:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'E')ven if it came to that sooner, I very much doubt the store would have anything on the shelves anyway. Venturing out would be just a dangerous wasted trip at that point.


That's true, IF the store had nothing on the shelves and IF rural America had turned into a Mad Max style dystopia. But don't you think you're narrowing your options a bit by predicating your survival on that one possible future?

I just think having access to non-motorized transportation is an option that no one in any peak oil scenario should be just dismissing out of hand. I'd hate to find myself 34 miles from anywhere and with no option other than walking. Even if your scenario does play out, if you do have to travel, every trip you take at walking speed puts you out in that dangerous wilderness for three times as long as you'd be in it with a bike, and with half the carrying capacity of a bike, that's twice as long again.

Holing up with a supply of goodies might work in the short term, but if that's the only plan, then it's just a longer drawn-out death sentence.


You're making the assumption that I'm planning on some sort of mad crash in the near term. Just the opposite, it's going to be a long slow slog downhill. Decades in the making, yet to come.

I ride my bicycle for exercise. People in the future may have to do so for basic transportation, but such an outcome for primary trasportation would mean, as a society, we'd already be in deep trouble. I also don't imagine you'd find a lot of 70 and 80 year olds with health problems riding bicycles on what would surely be un-maintained vast stretches of roads at that point, or riding your pregnant wife about to give birth to the nearest physician. Yes, in such a scenario, life will be much shorter.

As for bicycling in a Mad Max world, I'd sooner take my chances sneaking around on foot then getting shot out of the saddle on an exposed, slow moving vehicle.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 May 2013, 16:01:16

Lore – “I'd sooner take my chances sneaking around on foot then getting shot out of the saddle”. Now you’re starting to think like a Texican. Congrats. And remember: the shadows are your friends. LOL.

On a serious note, I would imagine if/when the day comes if a large portion of our population is FORCED to use non-motorized transportation to and from a job or the grocery store it will be the least of our problems. There will probably be a lot fewer jobs and not many well stocked groceries. Voluntary conservation by any means today would be nice but it’s difficult to imagine it will make a significant difference. IMHO the American people do what needs to be done only when they are forced to do it.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby AgentR11 » Sat 18 May 2013, 16:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')MHO the American people do what needs to be done only when they are forced to do it.


Wasn't it some stuffy English dude that said something like, 'trust the Americans to do the right thing... but only after having exhausted all the other possibilities."
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Beery1 » Sat 18 May 2013, 17:00:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '.')..maximal load is greater for walking and cart pulling. Even with a bike-trailer, I can carry more on my back than the bike can withstand...


In the Vietnam war, the North Vietnamese Army and the Viet Cong used bicycles to carry loads of up to 600lbs. Bicycles are over-engineered. Most manufacturers rate modern touring bikes' carrying capacity at only about 300lbs, but they can probably withstand a whole lot more.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Lore » Sat 18 May 2013, 17:09:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '.')..maximal load is greater for walking and cart pulling. Even with a bike-trailer, I can carry more on my back than the bike can withstand...


In the Vietnam war, the North Vietnamese Army and the Viet Cong used bicycles to carry loads of up to 600lbs. Bicycles are over-engineered. Most manufacturers rate modern touring bikes' carrying capacity at only about 300lbs, but they can probably withstand a whole lot more.


This is true, we already had this discussion. They used bikes like pack animals, but they didn't ride them. They walked along beside them. They basically put to use what they had. It would have been more efficient to use large carts pulled by oxen, but then they couldn't have traveled as well under cover.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 May 2013, 20:56:22

Agent – George Carlin had some thoughts along those lines:

“Americans will take a good idea and run it into the ground. They’ll also take a bad idea and run it into the ground.”

“When you’re born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front-row seat.”

“In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem.”

“Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.”

“That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.”

“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”

“We are a nation of sheep, and someone else owns the grass.”

“If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're gonna get selfish, ignorant leaders.”
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Beery1 » Sun 19 May 2013, 11:09:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')hey used bikes like pack animals, but they didn't ride them. They walked along beside them. They basically put to use what they had. It would have been more efficient to use large carts pulled by oxen, but then they couldn't have traveled as well under cover.


Yes, but what you consistently fail to see is that most Americans are approaching what could be the biggest energy crisis in history without pack animals, without carts, without bicycles, and with only automobiles. Ever tried moving a car on your own? I have tried on occasion, back in the 1980s. Cars are twice as heavy now as they were back then. Cars are effectively immobile without gasoline.

In a world of a prolonged oil shock, those with only cars for transport are going to be at a huge disadvantage. Those who don't need gasoline for transportation will be at a huge advantage (even if only in terms of their ability to go out and get gasoline). In my view, in a post-peak oil world, anyone who doesn't at least own (and know how to ride) a bicycle is taking a big risk. It may be the case that the crash doesn't happen and we won't need it, but in a world where an oil crash is increasingly likely, to dismiss a vehicle that can travel at speeds of up to 30mph for up to 90 miles per day while carrying a 300lb load, and without using even a teaspoonful of gasoline - to dismiss it out-of-hand - is, frankly, stupid.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Econ101 » Sun 19 May 2013, 12:53:35

I run 3 vehicles: 1994 F150 4-wheel drive bought new paid for. 2005 mercury Marque pd for bought with 20,000 miles. 2006 F150 4-wheel drive pd for, Last yr total cost for all 3 was $8,921.

Oil is the cheapest fuel in the world. A lot gets piled on:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Saudi Arabian crude is the cheapest in the world to extract
because of its location near the surface of the desert and the
size of the fields, which allow economies of scale.

The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of
extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be
around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure)
$4-$6 a barrel.

Extraction of Iraqi oil is in theory also very cheap,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/ ... 7420090728

After 3 yrs of pumping all wells have absorbed drilling costs. My guess is extraction costs in ND avg under $10.

This huge margin on developed fields is why the oil business has the money to continue exploration and pay good wages. Thousands and thousands of families have been blessed by finding their way into the industry. Mine included.

High gas prices are not evidence of any oil shortages, more like limited refinery capacity, a result of peak oil politics. There are also a lot of other infrastructure bottlenecks. Our domestic infrastructure shrunk like our production. These problems are now being eliminated one-by-one despite the best efforts to stop,or slow development, ie. Keystone pipeline

Carlins comment on capitalism keeping folks on the edge of poverty is a mistaken observation, much like thinking high gas prices are evidence of peak oil. What he was observing and commenting on we're the socialist programs gaining traction during his peak comedy years. He just wasn't educated enough to make that distinction.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby vision-master » Sun 19 May 2013, 14:27:13

socialist programs:

Allow employers to destroy a living wage, give them MORE tax breaks and put the burden of SNAP, Medicaid and so on, on the backs of the taxpayers. (bc these poor ppl need assistance from the Government in order to survive).

Your such a shorty shill.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Econ101 » Sun 19 May 2013, 15:36:56

:)
Last edited by Econ101 on Sun 19 May 2013, 15:48:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Econ101 » Sun 19 May 2013, 15:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 's')ocialist programs:

Allow employers to destroy a living wage, give them MORE tax breaks and put the burden of SNAP, Medicaid and so on, on the backs of the taxpayers. (bc these poor ppl need assistance from the Government in order to survive).

Your such a shorty shill.


All of those factors are a direct result of government policies having negative impacts on business and the economy. Living wages are in a large part destroyed because of the inflated dollars diminishing purchasing power. Prices are also high because of many intrusive government regulations and burgeoning tax burdens.

Companies should pay no tax at all. They would pay out much higher wages if that were the case. Of course they deduct the wages/taxes now but the overall tax burden, that could go to employees instead of welfare, remains high.

A large number of the people that "need" assistance are very capable of taking care of themselves. They dont need part of your paycheck or EXXONs. EXXON has good paying jobs for lots of them but they take SNAP etc. instead.

Climate change and peak oil are devisive issues designed and propegated to consolidate political power. They are not real issues, at least not the way they are framed in our daily doses of propaganda meant to keep you discouraged and power and wealth in the hands of the winners that arent derailed by the psychological conditioning. Read the Honeymoon Effect.

I have no cable TV meaning very few ads and very little unwanted news/propaganda. Keeps a lot of the social conditioning out of my house and my mind yet I have all the media entertainment I want at a fraction of the cost. Those that are being conditioned by TV will hear a lot surrounding the politics of peak oil but they will only get glimpses of the truth.
Last edited by Econ101 on Sun 19 May 2013, 16:54:17, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 May 2013, 16:43:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'W')ell, I suppose you are correct, but you forget. The million produced in North Dakota since I posted yesterday is in addition the other 18 million already going to refineies. Somehow you never see production increases as additions. What do you think they are? What does it mean when production is up?


:P :razz: :twisted: No it is not an addition to the eighteen million. When more oil is produced domestically less is imported.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Econ101 » Sun 19 May 2013, 16:50:31

Of course our imports are dropping. But the displaced supply is simply shipped to other markets and other refineries around the world. The point about importing is moot. The point that stays in play is the point the worlds supply is increasing by about 40,000 barrels/hour in North Dakota right now. Thats a good thing and demand including refineries located right by that flow would be a good thing, wouldnt you say? It would really perk up that eroei if we could get it refined there instead of russia or something.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby John_A » Sun 19 May 2013, 19:12:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hought you were driving some technology designed to cope with high fuel costs VM? Really Americans moaning on an international site about high prices which are substantially less than most of the rest of us have been paying for years, gets a little tiresome.



32 mpg the other day (highway).


31 mpg here. 300HP V6 to boot. Cars are getting more efficient, which is good, but I want those European turbo-diesels NOW.
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Re: Peak oil is now, all time high gas prices today

Postby Econ101 » Sun 19 May 2013, 19:20:43

Marque pulls 22. Nice cruising machine. One of the best cars ever made.
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