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Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 14 May 2013, 20:49:56

Well said Pstarr. I was one of very few (1?) defenders of shorty's right to a degree of what be perceived as trollery from time to time, back in the day when he was still using that ID. His rants were entertaining at times, sometimes irritating. A little irritation goes a long way.

I think the above slip by Econo is a dead giveaway for Mod evasion, even failing to answer the question as put by Tanada is a form of evasion. I have lost count how many incarnations shorty has been alleged to have had around here. Each one he seems to make a degree of effort to change the style a bit, to spin a slightly different flavour of bull, but the meme remains constant. Now his ego has got the better of him.

Recently I called him out (as he has been called out many many times before), on a post bragging in a very pubescent fashion of being an expert with knowledge of US oil sufficient to push peak out "100 years". Clearly he has become envious of the attention garnered here by ROCKMAN (through his very rare combination of insider expertise, good humour and way with words) and has decided to try on his 'expert' cap. Less than a dozen brief posts in since then, he trips himself up, as evident above. Is he a paid shill? A robot in training? An immature corny with too much spare time?
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 14 May 2013, 21:23:50

I would disagree. Shorty's style wasn't ridiculous like Econ's. Sure he seemed to argue everyone, about almost anything, but he didn't make ridiculous, oil will save the world through the abundance of whatever arguments, more like that it wouldn't cause collapse, fast or slow, and other things would happen. Econ is just too overboard ignorant, and Shorty doesn't read as ignorant.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 14 May 2013, 22:47:57

Vision Master seems to be the quickest to grok the disguise in the various suspected incarnations. How many have there been VM? I think if you look back at Econo-shorty's posts, you will find a strange mix of data intense analysis (@ senior high level @ least :) ) along with the inane and snide style developed over several years, several life bannings. Like Gollum he both hates the ring but can't part himself even as he finds himself degrading into a ghoul.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 May 2013, 10:37:11

SeaGypsy – “Is he a paid shill?” What!!! You mean someone might pay me to post where? Where do I sign up? Being a petroleum geologist obviously I’ll do anything if the money is right. LOL.

Don’t take this wrong…it’s not a criticism. Though I’m not always successful I try to avoid letting the conversation swing towards ad hominine attacks even when they are sooooo richly deserved. I try to make a distinction between facts and opinions. I can be very intolerant of “facts” being posted that are not facts. Opinions, OTOH, are never wrong if they express what a person truly believes. I may agree with them or I may not. Often I’m more interested in opinions than the facts because it gives me some insight into how the general population is viewing matters.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Wed 15 May 2013, 11:57:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')ell said Pstarr. I was one of very few (1?) defenders of shorty's right to a degree of what be perceived as trollery from time to time, back in the day when he was still using that ID. His rants were entertaining at times, sometimes irritating. A little irritation goes a long way.

I think the above slip by Econo is a dead giveaway for Mod evasion, even failing to answer the question as put by Tanada is a form of evasion. I have lost count how many incarnations shorty has been alleged to have had around here. Each one he seems to make a degree of effort to change the style a bit, to spin a slightly different flavour of bull, but the meme remains constant. Now his ego has got the better of him.

Recently I called him out (as he has been called out many many times before), on a post bragging in a very pubescent fashion of being an expert with knowledge of US oil sufficient to push peak out "100 years". Clearly he has become envious of the attention garnered here by ROCKMAN (through his very rare combination of insider expertise, good humour and way with words) and has decided to try on his 'expert' cap. Less than a dozen brief posts in since then, he trips himself up, as evident above. Is he a paid shill? A robot in training? An immature corny with too much spare time?


I dont know who shorty is. Trollery?
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Wed 15 May 2013, 12:30:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'A')s I have been stating for over a year now the impact of the oil shales will be to return oil pricing to a price competitive model made possible by increasing supplies. Peak oil politics limited supply and made a supply competitive model possible. This model assures us of the highest possible price and limited supply. A price competitive model assures us of reliable supplies and competitive price, as it was prior to the 1970s and the advent of peak oil politics.

This is currently the headline on MSN-MONEY:

US OIL OUTPUT BOOM SETS OFF WORLD-WIDE SUPPLY SHOCK:

Rising production will help meet most nations' demand in the next 5 years, even if the global economy picks up, leaving little room for OPEC to lift output without risking lower prices, the IEA says.


What User ID were you using here before last September?


I came to the site first as SOS. I only posted on the front page. Eventually I looked at the forum. Econ101 was first used there on a new computer. For a while I was using both because of auto login features but am using Econ101 now almost exclusively.

No, its not just me. There are a lot of folks generally in agreement that there is all the oil we need. The world has a 100 year inventory indentified now. Some say more maybe 150 yrs. Im not even sure they have included the shale reserves.

since I lasted posted more than a million barrels have been pumped up in North Dakota. Probably closer to 2 million. Thats every day. Some back of napkin calculations show 750 million barrels since 2005. Look at the graph! What if a climate change political scientist had that to support their platform? Its real too.

Rockman is well liked and in agreement with many of you but his view is limited. For instance he is mistaken, in a large part, about the connection between price and production activities. He says production is dependant on price. I say not, not in the main.

Look at the graph of North Dakota oil production with the price graph overlay. Notice how price and production part ways. That graph shows you that price is not an independent variable. It is very much becoming dependent on volume.

When the main propaganda outlets are forced to admit world supply and word markets are being disrupted because of burgeoning supply its a point to consider even though its only and echo of what has already been noted.

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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 15 May 2013, 12:37:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence.
--JUSTICE BRANDEIS 1927


We try to be, I try to be, on the side of free speech. But, there have been a few that got the axe, a few were doomers a few cornies but most just outright whacks who had problems with social interactions – imagine that, LOL.

Usually it's due to the tendency toward ad homs and sometimes it's just repetitive assertions spammed across every thread on the board that no amount of factual refutation could contain and that had the effect, either accidentally or intentionally, to obscure more than they enlightened. (ETA, see econs post above)

On the other hand there are some famous cornies who've made good arguments based on logic instead of ideology and in fact kept us from veering too far into tank-trap and Punji-stick territory. They used some elbows and that's OK because, frankly, they take a lot of abuse.

It's a fine line, we're more a social club than a news or research organization. Most of us believe resource constraints will be an increasing problem and this site can help folks sort out the facts. And I'll be honest, people come to a site called PeakOil.com to talk about peak oil, if you come on here and start berating them, it's like going to a Dodgers game and calling out all the Dodgers fans, eventually you're going to get popped – sorta speak. LOL
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Wed 15 May 2013, 17:04:53

I think what we are seeing today: 1) Politically expedient bengazi lies permeating our government for political gain 2) in a politically fascist style the government seizing AP phone records 3) Government using the IRS to silence political enemies and now the information coming out that the EPA is showing the same type of discrimination that the IRS was showing causes one to wonder about the accuracy of your statements pstarr. Also the unimaginable amount of oil we now know are in the shales dont need a political shill.

Peak oil politics is the real shill. It is holding back production in the US right now. We wouldnt even need the shales yet but peak oil politics has delivered this gift from God just in the nick of time.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby radon » Wed 15 May 2013, 18:01:46

Politically political policies of politicized politicians. SOS=shortonsense? Hardly.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 15 May 2013, 19:33:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')I dont know who shorty is. Trollery?


Of course you don't Shorty. :lol:
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 15 May 2013, 20:03:30

SOS=Shortonsense=Shorty.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Wed 15 May 2013, 20:21:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')OS=Shortonsense=Shorty.

I used to track his nom de plumes (aka aliases) but gave up years ago. Relentless troll, more an orc. So now that he admits he is a troll who has been serially removed, he will be removed again. Who will Shorty return as this time? jesus? bozo the clown?


LOL.

Peak oil was an effective political policy. It's used to cement voting blocks. It united enviros, liberals, school teachers, 1960s radicals and their offspring. Now, its not a complete joke, but it is not a real physical constraint. Its known we have as much as we need in any relevant time frame.

My question would be what is the point of peak oil? Is it to sell electric cars, windmills or solar panels?
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 15 May 2013, 20:51:46

What is the point of climate or weather forecasting? Economic forecasting? Education or family planning? Checking the woodpile before winter sets in? The point is basic due diligence.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 May 2013, 21:41:51

"For instance he is mistaken, in a large part, about the connection between price and production activities. He says production is dependant on price. I say not, not in the main"

And I will defend to the death anyone else who holds to the opinion that production isn't dependent upon price even when every oil patchv professional I've ever known for the last 38 would disagree.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 15 May 2013, 22:37:29

That point demands some elaboration Rockman. Say Iran agreed to total oversight and the Arab Spring miraculously ended with peaceful regimes- thereby releasing up to 20% more oil to market; what happens to the US shale oil game? What about the money printing game hits a wall and a bank rush occurs- destroying demand overnight? Price may not end production, but it influences specific well viability in a pretty major way.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 16 May 2013, 02:41:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;For instance he is mistaken, in a large part, about the connection between price and production activities. He says production is dependant on price. I say not, not in the main"

I'd say that it's more a case of "future production is dependant on current price" as ultimately it's investors who decide whether an oil field is drilled.

If they have a future oil price in mind and the oil play is expected the yield a profit at that price, then they'll invest.

Otherwise it don't get drilled.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Thu 16 May 2013, 18:23:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')hat is the point of climate or weather forecasting? Economic forecasting? Education or family planning? Checking the woodpile before winter sets in? The point is basic due diligence.


So what you are saying is that you are only trying to forcast the future of oil? You are checking the "wood pile" so-to-speak?

If due diligence is the reason why the resistance to the obviously good news that we have more then we need? It seems to me we should be celebrating. I know I am.

American Shale development technologies are being deployed world wide. The North Dakota production graph is going to be repeated over and over again. Its no longer trying to find some investors to drill an isolated pool. Thats what peak oil politics reduced the oil business to. Now, the news of the shales and the question: what will these enormous supplies do the the peak oil website?

I think they will change the focus. First some will be defensive, anger and frustration will be evident from some of the peak oil committed. There may be some frustrating transitional times, but anger and frustration will give way to realization and acceptance. The website will eventually be populated by those embracing the worlds oil production and its contribution to our high quality of life.
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Re: Will Peak Oil doom the peakoil.com website?

Unread postby Econ101 » Thu 16 May 2013, 18:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;For instance he is mistaken, in a large part, about the connection between price and production activities. He says production is dependant on price. I say not, not in the main"

And I will defend to the death anyone else who holds to the opinion that production isn't dependent upon price even when every oil patchv professional I've ever known for the last 38 would disagree.


You did not see the disconnect in the graph between price and production?

Image

Every decision depends on price, it depends on cost too. costs are and can be well controlled and understood. Price, maybe not so much. The risk factor in North Dakota is very low. Cost rule the day. Price is now a secondary condition.

On small, riskier projects like the one you referenced and even larger marginal fields, some you have also mentioned, price is king. Those deals are not in the same league as the Williston Basin, but in the same business.
Last edited by Econ101 on Thu 16 May 2013, 19:51:55, edited 2 times in total.
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