[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy would the Saudi's LIE like they are??

[kerosene]

well this is really hard to believe. If you liberate Saudis you are screwed. The people are very anti-american - for pretty good reason. The Saudi Arabia isn't your democratic nice society. The people are heavily oppressed by the US supported regime. I think current leaders are best that US can get.

After the oldschool oil crisis Saudis made a deal with US that goes roughly like this: USA -Supports Saudi militarily, guarantees current regime their saftey and place as leaders. Protects against agressors.

Saudi Arabia -Promises to work to avoid oil crisis by keeping the oil prices on decent levels.
-Invests their huge profist into American economy by buying bonds securities or what ever.

Over the years SA has been a great strategic allies. Blaming them for what is going on is naive. Surely they have lied about their reserves so seems everyone else doing too.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you liberate Saudis you are screwed. The people are very anti-american - for pretty good reason. The Saudi Arabia isn't your democratic nice society. The people are heavily oppressed by the US supported regime.

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')hat is certainly what the Saudis want us to believe.

[frankthetank]

IEA says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Global demand will reach 86.4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the IEA said in monthly report today, up 200,000 barrels a day from its prediction one month ago. That means the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to pump 29.6 million barrels a day in the final quarter, 300,000 a day more than expected last month, the IEA said.

OPEC members ``are producing at close to capacity,'' Jeff Brown, the IEA's oil demand analyst, said in an interview from Paris. ``Hopefully by the end of the year the pressures that we see will ease.''

[frankthetank]

story here
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 8&refer=us

[Sys1]

Quite hard to tell if we have peaked or not, even if we close pre or post peak. Anyway, the problem we have today for sure is that growth's rate will lead to a shock betwen demand and supply at the end of this year/beginning 2006. Economy is doomed to collapse. Will be fun.

[LadyRuby]

I'm trying to track this down for some research I'm undertaking.

This article says it's 2015 to 2033, other reports say after 2030.

http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/Th ... aCode.html [/url]

[Such]

I have some of their presentations... i think their latest projection is 2013 or 2015.

For some reason 2013 sticks in my head more though.

[NTBKtrader]

Is it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Such', 'I') have some of their presentations... i think their latest projection is 2013 or 2015.

For some reason 2013 sticks in my head more though.

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'I')s it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo

[Badger]

what problem....

no problemo...2070...

the IEA told me govt showed them some charts and pie graphs so where building more roads....

[NTBKtrader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stupid_monkeys', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'I')s it because the ancient Mayan calender suddenly just ends at the year 2013? Could they have known as far back as the bc's that this was the end date? dooby dooby doo

[Sparaxis]

Lady Ruby,

It's also useful to read the critique of the IEA forecasts (and EIA and others) posted here.

The IEA does not forecast a "peak year". Doing so would be political untenable, since their member countries certainly don't want their markets to get spooked. Every 2 years, they publish the "World Energy Outlook", the latest being 2004. In it, they forecast production rising to 121 mmbd by 2030.

If you read the details, the forecast is actually conditioned on an enormous amount of investment taking place before then ($16 trillion for all energy; $3 trillion for oil & gas, of which a half-trillion in the Middle East alone), or double the annual rate of O&G investment in the 1990s. Of course, as economists, they figure more investment will naturally result in more supply, but nonetheless, I don't think it's fair to use IEA's forecasts without acknowledging such conditions. EIA doesn't even go that far--they are simply out in left-field.

I got into an argument recently with a friend who works at IEA about this, and it's obvious that they are savvier about the situation than they can acknowledge (witness the "How to Save Oil in a Hurry" publication earlier this year). But their hands are tied to actually predict a peak year.

You can find the executive summary of the World Energy Outlook 2004 here.

[johnhemming]

I asked a written parliamentary question about this and was pointed to the IEA's figure of 2030+
link has all my WPQs

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sparaxis', 'I')n it, they forecast production rising to 121 mmbd by 2030.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"As long as the world economy growth is robust, world oil demand will move alongside," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil market division. The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast points to an acceleration of worldwide economic growth next year.

[evilmonkeyspanker]

I wish you could read the rest of the article without paying these numnuts

[killJOY]

Sorry. Try here:

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/081205E.shtml