[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'B')ut that's not the question. Cornies aren't the granola person. They are betting it all on a future that's powered by oil.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

Will they claim they were never really cornucopians? How could they do that?

[copious.abundance]

Q: How will the doomers react when their assumed or forecasted peak of oil production does not occur when they thought it would?

A: They start threads like this.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Well, considering how bad EROEI has gotten, it would seem that a declining resource has been impacting everyone for decades already, I saw a graph somewhere showing oil EROEI going off a cliff. And again, this would seem to be a battle fought at the individual level. I make $50G/year say, and peak oil doubles cost of living from $10G/year to $20G/ year because of peak oil. But triple my salary because I went to college, got better job, got involved in producing some of that energy (a big industry which will be needing loads of help to get the more expensive stuff out of the ground) and suddenly that doubling isn't such a big deal. It just doesn't look all that clear cut, and if you are in the middle of it, how does this particular cornie react, they didn't see any of the peak oil effect?

[ralfy]

Cornies, like much of the global population, will continue hoping that government, big business, the "market" or "market forces," etc., will allow for "business as usual" while, as Pops states, look at other "metrics" (like looking at consumer spending while ignoring debt).

Given that, the implication is that there will be no smooth transition to using other sources of energy or even less energy as more of the 85 pct of the world's population join the other 15 pct, and while the latter needs more of the former to do so in order to maintain their own income levels.

[Ibon]

Nobody knows whats coming down the road, the black swan events that are heading our way but it is relatively safe to assume that somewhere between cornucopians and doomsters lies the path ahead.

A little perspective. All of modern human history, basically since agriculture, we had a small elite ruling over peasants and serfs. Since the industrial revolution as a result of technology and fossil fuels and the spread of inclusive political and economic systems like democracy and capitalism we have witnessed wealth spread from the elite to now include hundreds of millions of humans.

This is going to contract. We know that. More expensive fossil fules, resource constraints etc. But we do have incredible amounts of expensive but low EROEI fuels that will get harvested. It will happen. This will still fuel a ruling elite and whatever percentage of professionals who will maintain some sort of privilege. How many tens or hundreds of millions this will be nobody really knows.

This contraction will take place through the decades like the movement of planets. slowly. And there will no real epiphany moment on this debate of when the cornucopians will react. This is a slow drawn out process where along the way consequences educate us.

The answer to the question though can be answered simply

Consequences will cause cornucopians to react. Just like they will all of us. There is no dichotomy here. We are all subject to the upcoming consequences.

[PrestonSturges]

Scapegoating and conspiracy theories.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Consequences will cause cornucopians to react. Just like they will all of us. There is no dichotomy here. We are all subject to the upcoming consequences.

[Loki]

I'm not sure it'll be a simple Bell curve, rising production, peak, declining production. Demand destruction caused by the recent implosion of the Ponzi economy might be a good model for how things may go down for the next couple decades. Lots of people losing their jobs, dropping out of the labor force, and driving less = relative stability of gas prices instead of the inexorable rise that we peak oilers used to predict. But who knows? Guess we'll have to wait and find out.

Preston is right, though, scapegoating and conspiracy theories will abound regardless. Reminds me of a post I read on a right wing board back in 2010 that blamed the Sierra Club for the Gulf oil spill, the poster claimed that all our damn environmental laws were forcing the oil companies to drill in such deep water

Reconciliation to reality and honest engagement with the data will not likely be a common strategy for dealing with the downside of Hubbert's Peak. People will do what they're doing until they can't do it anymore, then they'll do something else, but not without a whole bunch of kicking and screaming.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'S')capegoating and conspiracy theories.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', ' ')People will do what they're doing until they can't do it anymore, then they'll do something else, but not without a whole bunch of kicking and screaming.

[meemoe_uk]

Seems this question gets asked by the new peakers every year... for hundreds of years... heres the same old tired reply....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')The criminal accuses the innocent of his own guilt and crime...

[ralfy]

Cornies make up the majority of the world's population, and their main goal is to avail of a middle class lifestyle, which includes buying houses, cars, appliances, etc. With that, they will in general trust governments and businesses in economic planning, development of technology, etc., so that they can get good jobs, pay for that lifestyle, and deal with problems such as environmental damage and resource shortage. Governments and businesses will naturally want the same, as they profit from sales of houses, cars, appliances, etc., together with financial speculation and so forth. And there's always good reason to think in such a manner, especially for the majority that earns only around $2 a day, as no one wants to live in poverty.

This is what had been taking place, though, until around six years ago, when the price of oil suddenly went up, and with that, the price of various food products. These coupled with a major financial crash and the effects of environmental damage and global warming has led to disruption of various industries, power shortages, civil revolution, several economies collapsing, etc.

From there, we can see how cornies will react.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'C')ornies make up the majority of the world's population, and their main goal is to avail of a middle class lifestyle, which includes buying houses, cars, appliances, etc.

[radon]

Re OP: They will start a new thread - "Peak Oil Debunked once again".

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Says who? Earlier in this thread we all couldn't even decide who cornies were, and some people claimed to have never even met one? Are you sure there isn't a little projecting going on here? Maybe regular people want a regular lifestyle but for some that means saving the planet by making do with less, driving a Prius instead of a Hummer, growing some vegetables, skipping the McMansion? Houses, cars and appliances? Is that really what the world wants? Nowadays in America the kids don't even want a car, and forget the appliances unless it is an iphone. Houses are a crap shoot most anywhere, desiring them strikes me as not cornie but...deluded?