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How will the cornucopians react?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Beery1 » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 07:17:04

When Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

Will they persist in denial? If so, how?

Will they claim they were never really cornucopians? How could they do that?

How many of them will admit they were wrong?
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby jodell8964 » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 12:26:51

First of all, the cornucopians will never admit that they really are cornucopians. They will continue to persevere with their denialist agenda looking for scapegoats to take the hit for their woes when TSHTF.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 13:34:42

.
Old *Cornies never die, they just change metrics

* Same goes for Doomers, see: Here Comes The Double Dip, part 58
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 13:58:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?


From what I've seen, I think they will buy an e-cat.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 15:36:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

Will they persist in denial? If so, how?


This might be a bit of a noob question, but, will cornucopian react...to what? Certainly peak oil is a cool idea, we discuss it in the abstract and whatnot, but the way the IEA is now treating resources in general, it would seem that if we use less, as less is produced, well, what is anyone supposed to react....to? And won't different people react, differently?

Lets say I am a granola person, my euphemism for a bicycle riding, local produce buying, gizmo and gadget freak in the Pac NW, solar powered hot water and passive home with the occasional PV panel on the roof, don't even get my electricity from fossil fuels much, let alone worry about gasoline lines, rationing, consumer. Love my iphone, telework part time, yuck it up over the brain dead consumers runing around pissing and moaning filling up their Hummers, but really, how would this granola person even notice peak oil? Certainly someone will finish the pipeline I hate, which is just as predictable as it was during the energy crisis of the 70's with the Alaskan pipeline (bastards), but I'm guessing some people might not even know what to be looking for?

It is like worrying about a meteor impact, are we supposed to notice them all, or just the big ones? Think about it, for an event which has the potential to completely wipe out the human race one afternoon, we seem a bit lackadaisical about it. Is peak oil like that, we only notice occasionally as the world changes around us because of it? The boiling frog analogy? The rest of the time we sell the Hummer, add another panel to the array and move on?
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 15:45:45

As a 'granola' person you might not be impacted as much initially, but the financial impacts of a reclining resource base will impact everyone.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Beery1 » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 15:58:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

Will they persist in denial? If so, how?


This might be a bit of a noob question, but, will cornucopian react...to what?


To an obvious and ongoing decline in liquid fuel production - say it's 2025 and the world has seen ten full years of decline in liquid fuel production. The shale oil bubble went pop in 2015, oil shale turned out to be a pipe dream, the Middle East is awash in blood and Europe and the US are mired in the second great depression.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ets say I am a granola person, my euphemism for a bicycle riding, local produce buying, gizmo and gadget freak in the Pac NW, solar powered hot water and passive home with the occasional PV panel on the roof, don't even get my electricity from fossil fuels much, let alone worry about gasoline lines, rationing, consumer. Love my iphone, telework part time, yuck it up over the brain dead consumers runing around pissing and moaning filling up their Hummers, but really, how would this granola person even notice peak oil?


But that's not the question. Cornies aren't the granola person. They are betting it all on a future that's powered by oil.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 16:26:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'B')ut that's not the question. Cornies aren't the granola person. They are betting it all on a future that's powered by oil.


That's a very limiting definition of a Corny. You are describing basically an irrational denialist. Someone who thinks finite is infinite or believes in abiotic. Most cornies are technotopians who think something will be invented or discovered that will substitute for oil and result in a mostly smooth transistion. I think of people like Tom Whipple. He's been sounding the alarm bells of peak oil for some time but seems to jump on every techno-fix as a hopeful remedy.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Beery1 » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 17:37:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'B')ut that's not the question. Cornies aren't the granola person. They are betting it all on a future that's powered by oil.


That's a very limiting definition of a Corny. You are describing basically an irrational denialist. Someone who thinks finite is infinite or believes in abiotic.


No. But I am confining it to those who actually use oil. I don't think it's 'very limiting' to do so - after all, those who refuse to use any oil are a tiny, insignificant minority. I don't see the 'granola person' as a cornucopian - clearly, he has taken steps to ensure that peak oil doesn't affect him directly. As such, he's a peakist, at least in deed.

Besides, cornucopia means 'horn of plenty' - an unending cup. In Greek mythology, the cup was made by the infant Zeus, who accidentally broke off the horn from the goat Amalthea, which then had the divine power to provide unending nourishment.

So I'm going by that definition - i.e. I'm talking of those who believe that oil will not peak in our lifetimes, that peak oil is BS and that the supply of oil is, for all intents and purposes for anyone alive today, endless. I'm talking about those who, in recent news articles, are trumpeting the death of the peak oil 'theory'. Many of those are not 'irrational denialists'.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 17:56:59

OK, Beery, its your thread. By your definition, I don't know a single Corny in person or online.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby Beery1 » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 19:31:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'O')K, Beery, its your thread. By your definition, I don't know a single Corny in person or online.


Well then, it's not my definition you're using, because my definition includes everyone who has written an article claiming that peak oil is dead. The problem is, you're putting my definition through your impermeable filter. If we use your filter, no one except for granola guy can ever be a cornucopian.

No one's forcing you to answer the question.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 20:47:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'A')s a 'granola' person you might not be impacted as much initially, but the financial impacts of a reclining resource base will impact everyone.


Well, considering how bad EROEI has gotten, it would seem that a declining resource has been impacting everyone for decades already, I saw a graph somewhere showing oil EROEI going off a cliff. And again, this would seem to be a battle fought at the individual level. I make $50G/year say, and peak oil doubles cost of living from $10G/year to $20G/ year because of peak oil. But triple my salary because I went to college, got better job, got involved in producing some of that energy (a big industry which will be needing loads of help to get the more expensive stuff out of the ground) and suddenly that doubling isn't such a big deal. It just doesn't look all that clear cut, and if you are in the middle of it, how does this particular cornie react, they didn't see any of the peak oil effect?
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 20:49:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '
')But that's not the question. Cornies aren't the granola person. They are betting it all on a future that's powered by oil.



You have a strawman cornie. Here is a cornie, and I promise you this guy will never be mistaken for someone betting it all on oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amory_Lovins
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 26 Nov 2012, 20:54:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')And because they have no imagination, they can't even consider just how bad things are going to get. :?


That's my question! What are these cornies supposed to react TO! And isn't that reaction a good thing as they learn? They insulate the house, sell the SUV, move closer to work, grow some food in the garden, that sort of stuff? I mean even cornies can learn can't they, they will learn and do something else, anything else, to free up disposable income to buy Starbucks on their way to work in the morning, now that sounds like a ritual even a cornie won't give up...until climate change takes out coffee bean growth anyway.
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Re: How will the cornucopians react?

Unread postby SilentRunning » Tue 27 Nov 2012, 00:23:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'W')hen Peak Oil becomes clear to all, how do forum members think the cornucopians will handle it?

Will they persist in denial? If so, how?

Will they claim they were never really cornucopians? How could they do that?

How many of them will admit they were wrong?


Well, they are currently stuck in the "Denial" phase. After that usually comes Anger, then Bargaining, then Depression. A few may even move on to the final "Acceptance" phase.
Send more Cornicopians!
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