[PeakOiler]

As of last Tuesday, Oct. 2:

[jdmartin]

Well, unless something crazy happens, I think we've hit the point of equilibrium for this year, anyway. I think Obiwan's got this one in the bag. I'm at 14, and I think that's my best finish yet so far. Maybe I'm actually learning something... :D

[SeaGypsy]

Still a bit of a run to go and some strange movements going on. The last few weeks have seen divergence between the stock market (up/ flat) & oil prices (down); which is more than a bit un-usual. Especially with the noises in the middle east.

My thinking on this is that oil investors are becoming more savvy than run of the mill market folks. The stock markets seem largely hinged on Europe's mood of the week. Commodity prices seem more hooked up to whatever China & India are doing. Everyone is wondering when China's RE bubble will burst. How can a place with $10 a day wages can afford $200k units (millions and millions of them)?

[sparky]

.
The OPEC basket price is under selling pressure for weeks
the Saudis seems to be try to keep it above 105$/bl
It's getting hard .......
they will have to cut production if they want the price to remain above 100$

[SeaGypsy]

There are still many potential causes of a spike yet this year; any of the majors could fall prone to political unrest sufficient to disrupt production. A 5% shortfall could easily trigger a 10-15% spike. On the other hand, the trend is gradual down/ market destruction. Of course this is cyclical and next year could be (will be here) a whole new game!

I'm very ok with my 9c off low guess this year and doubt the trendline is heading hard south any time soon. No black swans, my close is looking pretty optimistic at present; we shall see how things go, still several of us in the running...

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')Everyone is wondering when China's RE bubble will burst. How can a place with $10 a day wages can afford $200k units (millions and millions of them)?

[SeaGypsy]

I think that's about right OS, except for the $100 a day is combined income, couple making $50 each. $100 a day is way above middle wage in most of urban China & India.

[PeakOiler]

The latest scorecard:

I'll post another update around Dec. 1 and then the final one after the new year.

Who's going to do the 2013 Oil Price Challenge?

[jdmartin]

I'm in for 2013 challenge. I think I'm getting better at this, which is scary!

[dolanbaker]

All I know is is that if I'd used my WTI guess in the Brent forecast I'd have done quite well.

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'W')ho's going to do the 2013 Oil Price Challenge?

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')Who's going to do the 2013 Oil Price Challenge?

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')Who's going to do the 2013 Oil Price Challenge?

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')Who's going to do the 2013 Oil Price Challenge?

[SeaGypsy]

Looks like no spike, but could bounce enough to get me back over the line yet!

[Pops]

I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reign of West Texas Intermediate WTI light sweet crude as the international standard for Crude Oil pricing has been eroding for a few years. It is now certain that WTI will be replaced in Y 2013 by Brent Crude as the international standard.


The S&P GSCI commodities index has already raised its weighting on Brent to 22.34% of the index beginning in January, and lowered the weighting of WTI from nearly 31% to 24.71%. The reason: there are more Brent bbls available. Higher volume means more liquidity and more opportunities for trading.

The problem with WTI is that it is landlocked within the US, and pricing is settled at Cushing, Oklahoma, where there is limited pipeline availability to move WTI.

Virtually no WTI is loaded on tankers for sale anywhere else in the world, and notwithstanding recent projections from the International Energy Agency, it is not likely that significant volumes of WTI will ever be sold abroad.

The situation is even more lopsided in futures, where Brent futures traded on the InterContinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) now outnumber WTI futures traded on the Nymex by about 30,000 contracts a day. The combined volumes on both exchanges still favors WTI, but Brent is rapidly closing the gap according to the data.

The options market is where Brent has made its largest gains although it still trails WTI by a substantial margin, both Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) and Delta Air Lines Co. (NYSE: DAL) have switched to Brent to hedge their exposure to jet fuel prices.

Brent trades today at a spread of about $23 bbl higher than WTI.

That gap, due in large part to increased production in the US and a lack of infrastructure to move WTI out of the Midwest, is expected to close with WTI prices rising to meet Brent pricing.

Crude Oil producers will welcome the shift, refiners will not, and US drivers will end up paying higher prices at the pump. It may take a while for this all to shake out, but the 1st big step has already been taken.

[Quinny]

It'd be interesting to see what the table looked like if Brent prices were used. Would this be difficult to do?

[dolanbaker]

I should've used my wti guess on the brent table.

[AdTheNad]

I didn't bother doing a brent forcast this year, as I remember hearing something about a pipeline being reversed and thought that would bring the 2 prices largely back in line. Guess that was wrong.

[PeakOiler]

As of November 27:



Quinny: I haven't downloaded the latest Brent data from the EIA to do a "What If?" scorecard. We can't change the rules of the game now though.

AdtheNad: The Seaway pipeline reversal has begun, but the flow rates will only get to about 400k day early next year. (See The Seaway Pipeline thread in the Current Events forum for the links to some reports.)

I guess I will keep track of the game for 2013. I'll start a new thread.
ColossalContrarian: Don't worry about the $5. Use it to buy a gallon of gas.