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Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 14 Oct 2012, 16:04:39

AgentR11 said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts really quite simple, a per-capita physically shrinking economy, expressed in the form of an arbitrarily increasing number of per-capita US$. Creates nominal growth, without creating real physical growth.


Its certainly simple, unfortunately, it doesn't work. Little or none of the money that has been created by the FED has entered the economy. The banks are sitting on it.

But its easier to deal with than the consequences of PO.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 14 Oct 2012, 16:36:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]AgentR11 said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts really quite simple, a per-capita physically shrinking economy, expressed in the form of an arbitrarily increasing number of per-capita US$. Creates nominal growth, without creating real physical growth.


Its certainly simple, unfortunately, it doesn't work.


Just because its purposed work is not what you would prefer the work to be, does not imply failure. The Fed's market plumping is working EXACTLY as intended. I hardly go a day without having an awestruck moment at its monumental perfection and cold bloodedness.

The purpose is to drive the lower 80% of the developed population into the state the rest of the world's bulk population sits in, where the majority of their income is spent on food. Once you have that condition, you have the perfect economic control for both right and left parties. That leaves the upper 20%, who through fear of becoming NOT of the 20%; become very, very compliant. Tada, 80% depend on state power to eat, the remaining 20% depend on keeping their mouths shut and heads down in order to retain the privilege of eating German made chocolate bars. The tiny, fractional 0.01% at the top, BAU, smooth sailing into the apocalypse.

Its is the ultimate response to currency wagerate imbalance, and it will flatten the compensation of all wage labor, all across the globe. I'd consider it to be the inevitable, unavoidable conclusion to trade imbalance when that trade is conducted in a fiat currency.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 15 Oct 2012, 03:46:06

This process works only with a steady increase in credit, not with fallout from only a fraction of hundreds of trillions in unregulated derivatives.

Most important, much of that credit has value only as long as manufacturing and mechanized agriculture keep going. Unfortunately....
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 15 Oct 2012, 23:32:05

Hey everyone. Long time, no post.

Alright, so a very close friend wrote a book about an investment strategy that covers you whether we see inflation or deflation.

The strategy backtests beautifully and has about the most sturdy (and peak oil-proof) theoretical framework you will ever find in an investment strategy without taking a lot of risk that the world isn't going to end.

It's currently in the top 20 among investment books on Amazon.

If it sounds interesting, please have a look. It was written with an eye toward the effects of peak oil and the reviews so far have been very positive.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Permanent-Por ... 1118288254

BTW, hello to all of my old friends here. I followed eastbay's lead and took some time off from posting to pursue other projects.
:)
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 16 Oct 2012, 08:50:33

What will you do once you become to crippled/ old to maintain your doomstead lifestyle?
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 16 Oct 2012, 09:00:30

Tex!
You ol' spammer!
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 16 Oct 2012, 15:04:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')ex!
You ol' spammer!


To paraphrase Walt Whitman, "If you done it, it aint spamming."

Really, though, I believe that a lot of peak oil thinking went into this book and could be that rare investment strategy that is peak oil-proof without betting the farm on a SHTF scenario.
:)
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby careinke » Tue 16 Oct 2012, 19:12:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')hat will you do once you become to crippled/ old to maintain your doomstead lifestyle?

Hire the homeless to shine their Master's boots?


I'm thinking of becoming a Feudal Lord/Mentor.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 16 Oct 2012, 21:15:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]AgentR11 said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts really quite simple, a per-capita physically shrinking economy, expressed in the form of an arbitrarily increasing number of per-capita US$. Creates nominal growth, without creating real physical growth.


Its certainly simple, unfortunately, it doesn't work.


Just because its purposed work is not what you would prefer the work to be, does not imply failure. The Fed's market plumping is working EXACTLY as intended. I hardly go a day without having an awestruck moment at its monumental perfection and cold bloodedness.

The purpose is to drive the lower 80% of the developed population into the state the rest of the world's bulk population sits in, where the majority of their income is spent on food. Once you have that condition, you have the perfect economic control for both right and left parties. That leaves the upper 20%, who through fear of becoming NOT of the 20%; become very, very compliant. Tada, 80% depend on state power to eat, the remaining 20% depend on keeping their mouths shut and heads down in order to retain the privilege of eating German made chocolate bars. The tiny, fractional 0.01% at the top, BAU, smooth sailing into the apocalypse.

Its is the ultimate response to currency wagerate imbalance, and it will flatten the compensation of all wage labor, all across the globe. I'd consider it to be the inevitable, unavoidable conclusion to trade imbalance when that trade is conducted in a fiat currency.

Yeah but that's about over for now, the housing bubble is almost over.

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Next phase is peak oil in a few years.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby Loki » Thu 25 Oct 2012, 20:38:39

If anyone's still interested in the deflation vs. (hyper)inflation question, the Automatic Earth has had a couple good pieces on this lately:

US Hyperinflation Is A Myth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have lived through the by far biggest credit bubble in history. It should be clear to everyone that this bubble has not fully - been - deflated yet (and if it's not, good luck). Until it has, economic recovery and housing recovery are pipedreams. And so is hyperinflation, though that may be more of a pipe nightmare. There is no way QE, or money printing, or whatever you name it, can cause hyperinflation against the tide of a deflating bubble. Once a bubble has fully burst, it is a possibility. But only then. And only if and when a country has become unable to borrow in international debt markets. Greece perhaps soon, but for the US it's years away, if ever.


I also highly recommend reading Steve Keen on the subject of debt deflation. It's pretty clear that deflation is what we have in store for ourselves (at least in the US), with the notable exception of oil and probably food (due to peak oil and climate change respectively).
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby careinke » Thu 25 Oct 2012, 22:01:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I')f anyone's still interested in the deflation vs. (hyper)inflation question, the Automatic Earth has had a couple good pieces on this lately:

US Hyperinflation Is A Myth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have lived through the by far biggest credit bubble in history. It should be clear to everyone that this bubble has not fully - been - deflated yet (and if it's not, good luck). Until it has, economic recovery and housing recovery are pipedreams. And so is hyperinflation, though that may be more of a pipe nightmare. There is no way QE, or money printing, or whatever you name it, can cause hyperinflation against the tide of a deflating bubble. Once a bubble has fully burst, it is a possibility. But only then. And only if and when a country has become unable to borrow in international debt markets. Greece perhaps soon, but for the US it's years away, if ever.


I also highly recommend reading Steve Keen on the subject of debt deflation. It's pretty clear that deflation is what we have in store for ourselves (at least in the US), with the notable exception of oil and probably food (due to peak oil and climate change respectively).


So, your basically saying necessities will inflate, and non-essentials will deflate. The worst possible scenario, I can buy that.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 26 Oct 2012, 03:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'S')o, your basically saying necessities will inflate, and non-essentials will deflate. The worst possible scenario, I can buy that.

That is exactly what is happening here in Ireland, fuel & food prices are rising but the cost of electrical goods, furniture etc has been dropping in price over the past couple of years.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 26 Oct 2012, 08:40:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'S')o, your basically saying necessities will inflate, and non-essentials will deflate. The worst possible scenario, I can buy that.


Worst, only depending on who you are.
If you're a shareholder of ADM, Exxon, or have oil/gas leases that pay based on profitable production, its a pretty awesome scenario.
If you're a single mom, living in a one bedroom apartment with two kids, it sucks ***** ****** *******.

Its a giant slurping sound to suck the last tidbits out of the lower middle class, to make sure they never challenge the 20%. They get to work really hard, and forward all their income to the shareholders of Exxon in order to keep going to work and working really hard.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 26 Oct 2012, 13:36:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ut really. Think about it. If Single Mom can't afford gas, then who buys Exxon product? How many yachts does one need to support a giant oil company? If Single Mom can't afford Nachos, then who buys the HFCS? It's one big economy. The Big Boys will suffer also.


But see, that's the sick part. That Single Mom WILL be able to buy gas, nachos, and bread. Its just that instead of 10% of her take home used to do it, she has to spend 75% to do it. And as gas, nachos, and store bread are considered essential, it'll never occur to her to ditch the car, ride a bike/bus, and bake her own bread. Trapped like a rat into indentured servitude by the overlaying culture. And anyone that suggests an alternative budget or method is thought of as nuts, patronizing, or just simply malevolent.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 26 Oct 2012, 14:10:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ut really. Think about it. If Single Mom can't afford gas, then who buys Exxon product? How many yachts does one need to support a giant oil company? If Single Mom can't afford Nachos, then who buys the HFCS? It's one big economy. The Big Boys will suffer also.


But see, that's the sick part. That Single Mom WILL be able to buy gas, nachos, and bread. Its just that instead of 10% of her take home used to do it, she has to spend 75% to do it. And as gas, nachos, and store bread are considered essential, it'll never occur to her to ditch the car, ride a bike/bus, and bake her own bread. Trapped like a rat into indentured servitude by the overlaying culture. And anyone that suggests an alternative budget or method is thought of as nuts, patronizing, or just simply malevolent.


+ 1 Add to the fact that her work is also taxed, (if not income tax, at least the payroll tax), plus interest on loans, and you basically have indentured servants without an end date. Or slaves you don't have to house.
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Re: Inflation or Deflation? What will Peak Oil cause?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 26 Oct 2012, 14:51:50

Sorry, my fault.

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