[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'A')s for the IEA, I didn't look at them. I just read the news quote.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'T')hat quote is misleading, I agree. I believe they still project demand increases for all of these places. When they say, "revised downwards its estimate of demand in Europe," what they're saying is that they're revising downward their projection for demand increase in Europe (2005 over 2004). This month, they think demand will grow less than they thought it would last month.

Also, "demand pressures in China and the United States had continued to ease," means that they're seeing less demand there now than they expected before. That does not equate to an absence of growth, only slower growth than expected.

[nth]

Yes, that is the correct article I was reading.

I thought they are talking about the oil production increase for the year?

I thought they are saying the average will increase 2.2% this year from the previous forecast of 2.1% and that this increase would have been bigger, but it was offset by decreases in US, EU, China.

That is how I take it.

I don't see US decreasing.
I read news articles about EU dropping, but I never studied their actual numbers. News also say China dropping, but I don't even know where to go to find their numbers. I dont' read Chinese, so I don't even bother to poke their gov't sites.

Okay, so US may not be decreasing now, but it will not increase according to projection. Unless they are projecting something more than Q1 increases over '04 Q1, which I don't think they are. The same percentage of increase is still being seen. Looking at EIA forecasts, demand is as projected. So if EIA is not seeing decrease, how is IEA seeing decrease? That is the part that baffles me. Unless EIA has seen decreasing, but I just missed it. Is that the case?

[OilsNotWell]

From the looks of this Excel chart from the IEA:

IEA OMR - Supply/Demand Data (xls)

We have a first quarter 2005 total world demand of: 84.3, but only a world oil supply of 83.8....

Am I reading this correctly?

OMR Public Info

This would mean, I think, that above-ground stocks were being drawn upon...

[OilsNotWell]

Here's some charts from the May 11 report that is now public:
link

compared with this: link

from here: IEA OMR World Balance Charts...
The silence is deafening here....

[UIUCstudent01]

... ... ...

[linlithgowoil]

yep, supply is less than demand in 1q 05. i wonder if this has happened before in regular non oil embargo times? anyone have the data?

what i am interested in is q4 05. over 86mb per day, and supply seems to have hit a bit of a brick wall at around 84mb per day or thereabouts.

that means there would be a 2 mb per day drawdown of crude oil stocks over the 4th quarter - depleting stockpiles markedly i would imagine.

im sticking by my price prediction of $50-55 throughout summer (unless hurricanes hit bad, then it will go above $60), but passing $60 by autumn.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Since 1999 demand has regularly been higher then supply meaning higher prices.

This year though the forecast is the worst ever between 1999 and 2004. The biggest glut was 1.7 mb/d in the winter season. This time it could be between 2 and 4 mb/d (Simmons). I also did the calculation and i think Simmons is spot on.

It could very well be 3.4 mb/d (depending if you believe opec or not...)

Anyway it all depends on a few factors

- Hurricane Season
- Chinese Demand + Chinese strategic reserve filling
- Other Demand
- Can Opec pump more????
- The weather

[Raxozanne]

Do you think the sheeple will finally be awakened in the Q4 of 2005?

[Triffin]

Has anyone seen any statistics breaking out
from demand the amount of crude currently going
into various country's SPRs ?? I assume we're not
the only nation currently purchasing crude for
later use ( military ?? )

This would be an element of demand that could
be postponed temporarily ..

Triff ..

[Permanently_Baffled]

Demand has been greater than supply since 1999 , thats why the price has gone from $10 to $55 and climbing

Remember , demand cannot exceed supply, the price will just keep rising until enough demand is destroyed to restore balance.

PB

[ubercrap]

From what I am understanding, they are talking about demand exceeding production capacity, but the difference being made up by drawing upon stockpiles?

[aahala]

Demand has not regularly exceeded supply for a long period, because
demand can not exceed present production and reserves. Reserves
(past production not used) are not great compared to annual production
and have not been substantually reduced over this period.

The demand curve however has been generally shifting to the right
as more is being purchased at higher prices. That's a different thing
than saying demand has regularly exceeded supply.

[linlithgowoil]

the way i understand it is that OPEC is pumping at 100% capacity right now, because they know they cannot pump anymore come autumn time. therefore, they are allowing a stock build so that the stock can be drawn down to cover winter. i've not really got any idea what will happen in Q1 2006 though - the stocks will surely be depleted and oil production doesnt look like it will be much higher - it might just be the same (or LESS if ol' Deffeyes is right!)

[gnm]

Is total use higher in winter than summer? Heating oil vs driving season and such? I think this looks bad for 4q 2005 and 1q 2006 as well. By 3q 2006 it should be painfully obvious to everyone!


-G

[Leanan]

I believe Matthew Simmons has said that the Saudis hide their actual production capacity with an extensive storage network. He thinks their claims of pumping more oil are just drawing from oil pumped and stored during slack times.

[OilsNotWell]

I am impressed with the quality of the insight on this board.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Demand has exceeded PRODUCTION supply regularly. Im not talking about strategic reserves/ stock withdrawal

Here is my Data from the Energy Information Administration. You see a regular NEGATIVE demand/supply difference since 1999. I've just noticed now the highest was 1999 (2.4 mb/day negative 4th quarter 1999)

Oil Supply / Demand /Supply - Demand /Stock withdrawal
1999 1st___74.8____75.7____ -0.9____ 0.9
2nd_______72.7____ 72.9____ -0.2____ -0.1
3rd_______73.5____ 73.9____ -0.4____ -0.4
4th_______73.8____ 76.2____ -2.4____ -2.4
2000 1st__75____ 75.7____ -0.7____ -0.7
2nd_______76.1____ 74.3____ 1.8____ 1.8
3rd_______77.3____ 75.6____ 1.7____ 1.8
4th_______77.9____ 77.2____ 0.7____ 0.7
2001 1st__77.6____ 77____ 0.6____ 0.6
2nd_______76.1____ 74.7____ 1.4____ 1.4
3rd_______76.9____ 75.3____ 1.6____ 1.6
4th_______76.6____ 75.9____ 0.7____ 0.7
2002 1st__75.9____ 77.8____ -1.9____ -1.4
2nd_______75.6____ 76____ -0.4____ 0.0
3rd_______76.1____ 77.1____ -1____ -0.5
4th_______77.8____ 78.8____ -1____ -0.5
2003 1st__78.4____ 79.7____ -1.3____ -1.0
2nd_______78____ 77.2____ 0.8____ 1.1
3rd_______79____ 78.5____ 0.5____ 0.7
4th_______81.4____ 80.8____ 0.6____ 0.9
2004 1st__82.3____ 82.4____ -0.1____ -0.2
2nd_______82.3____ 80.7____ 1.6____ 1.6
3rd_______83.4____ 82.2____ 1.2____ 1.2
4th_______83.9____ 84.9____ -1____ -0.9
2005 1st__83.9____ 84.6____ -0.7____ -0.7
2nd_______84.2____ 83.1____ 1.1____ 1.1
3rd_______85____ 84.6____ 0.4____ 0.4
4th_______86.1____ 86.8____ -0.7____ -0.7
2006 1st__86.6____ 86.9____ -0.3____ -0.3
2nd_______86.5____ 85.1____ 1.4____ 1.5
3rd_______87____ 86.6____ 0.4____ 0.4
4th_______87.9____ 88.9____ -1____ -1.0

[eastbay]

He thinks their claims of pumping more oil are just drawing from oil pumped and stored during slack times.

Slack times????

EastBay

[Leanan]

You know, when oil was $10 a barrel.